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February 9, 2022

Top 10 Players to Avoid Fantasy Football 2022

Published by Joseph Robert at February 8, 2022

1. Dalvin Cook

All right. Let’s dive in, the first person you’re going to avoid, I’ve been avoiding them for years, I’m going to dive into why I’m avoiding him. It’s not just like, hey, I’m going to avoid this guy and I’m going to tell you guys why. The first guy is Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook must be avoided at all costs. This is a guy… There was con-sheep-sis consensus fantasy football rankings consensus top five last year, top three actually. Everyone said draft, Dalvin Cook. What’d I say? I said, “Avoid Dalvin Cook.” Why? Many reasons, the guy doesn’t finish seasons period. That’s it. That’s all you need to know. Hasn’t finished the season in his entire career. I’m going to pull it up here. The guy’s played since 2017, played five seasons. Has not finished one. Four games season one, 11 games, 14 games, 14 games. And the past season in 2021, he played 13 games. That’s Dalvin Cook for you.

This was a guy again, top three-five pick across the board on the consensus rankings in 2021 rankings. Looking at 2022, I’m looking at it, the consensus still has this guy ranked pretty high in their rankings. They got him sitting right now, top three. That is absolutely ludicrous. The guy finished… Just to put it in perspective for you, finished 15th in standard leagues last year. In PPR last year, Dalvin Cook finished 16th amongst running backs in PPR fantasy numbers with 206.3 PPR fantasy points. That’s 249 attempts, 1,159 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and six total touchdowns. And he did not, I repeat, he did not get any receiving touchdowns. He did not live up to the hype and the expectations. And as I said before, and I said prior, did not finish the season. And for the fact that he didn’t finish the season, busted based on last year’s ADP significantly, significantly busted. I’m going to be staying away from Dalvin Cook completely. I will not be drafting him. He is a fantasy football player you must avoid this season.

2. Nick Chubb

All right, let’s move on to the second player here that you must avoid. Another popular name that I avoided last year. And for good reason, because he also busted at his average draft position. The guy I’m talking about is Nick Chubb. Looking at his PPR numbers, finished 13th amongst running backs. Also busting based on ADP, and people thought I was absolutely crazy when I said that Najee Harris will finish ahead of Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook. People said you’re crazy. I even said, Najee Harris would beat CMC, Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points, and sure enough, he did. So Nick Chubb, another guy I’m going to avoid this season simply predicated on the fact that he also doesn’t finish seasons very well. He had 228 attempts, eight touchdowns on the ground, only 14 games. And he always shares the backfield with Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt always, and he had an injury this year, but always tend to finish better in PPR. So that often is always suspect. Odell Beckham Jr. Is gone. We don’t know if Baker Mayfield is a solution there.

I’m just going to dodge Nick Chubb, because he’s always part of a committee, and he’s a pure runner. He’s not really a pass-catching running back at all. So when I’m drafting a guy relatively early, I want a guy that’s going to do it all. Now currently Nick Chubb is sitting on the consensus rankings top 10 in standard, and around 12th amongst running backs as it sits right now, first-quarter 2022, sitting 12th amongst running backs on the consensus rankings. I’m going to stay away from it completely, Nick Chubb is the second player to avoid.

3. Cooper Kupp

Number three, this comes as a shocker here, but I’m going to dodge Cooper Kupp. Now Cooper Kupp. Oh, what a coincidence Cooper Kupp is now currently sitting number one wide receiver off the board on the consensus. Where was he last year? I’ll tell you where he was on the consensus rankings. He was actually sitting outside the top 15. The mainstream con-sheep-sis, the magazines, the outdated rankings, the consensus rankings, all the podcasts had Cooper Kupp behind Robert Woods and the rankings, all of a sudden now they’re riding him? They’re riding him? That is total BS. I’m going to avoid Cooper Kupp like the plague for many reasons, he had an absolute pinnacle year. There’s no way he’s going to repeat these numbers. Not even Antonio Brown in his prime, in one of his best years in 2015 couldn’t duplicate these numbers two years in a row. Cooper Kupp in 2021 had 191 targets, which is crazy, 145 receptions, 1,947 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns, 439.5 PPR fantasy points. That is phenomenal!

For Cooper Kupp to repeat that, it would be an absolute miracle for him to repeat that. Now a lot of people say, well, Joe, he’s going to decline. And you know, he’s still going to have a good season. Yeah, he could. He could very well have a good season coming into 2022, very well possible. But you got to consider the fact that the guy is going to be 29 years old. The guy is going to enter his sixth season. The guy’s finished what one, maybe two healthy seasons, pretty much his entire career. He had the one injury in 2018 where he played eight games, but he’s actually been relatively healthy. Okay. And then you’ve got Odell Beckham Jr. there, you’ve got other targets. You got to understand that things change every single year. And to put him first overall, because he finished first overall, is absolutely ludicrous because we know, history shows every single year that it doesn’t work like that.

So I’m going to be dodging Cooper Kupp simply for the fact that a decline is happening. We don’t know the extent of the decline, but a decline is definitely happening. And we saw this with Michael Thomas, that year, a couple of years ago, Michael Thomas, had a phenomenal year. Then he regressed the year after he got hurt. Now an injury could happen to Cooper Kupp, which tends to happen with people that have pinnacle years due to the fact that they’ve had such a Cinderella year. And then, they see all these targets, and then it’s inevitable that they are either getting hurt or a declines going to happen. So if you want Cooper Kupp, you’re going to have to spend early draft capital on him, which I’m not going to do. Knowing that someone else is going to take that spot. Like we see every single year. So the mainstream I’m going to put them on top for obvious reasons like they do every year and you got to catch on this pattern and it’s total BS and I’m going to dodge them cause I’m not paying early draft capital.

Now I got them in the fourth round last year because I knew where to get him and that’s why the 16-round draft solution tells you where to draft players for optimal return on investment. And with wide receiver, there’s a ton of value. You don’t have to spend early draft capital on a wide receiver. We saw the regression last year of Deandre Hopkins and other wide receivers early on, they were drafted and busted. This happens every single year. So Cooper Kupp is a guy I will avoid at all costs. I liked him last year in the fourth to the fifth round, will not be paying this price. I liked him when the sheep had Robert Woods ahead of him. All of them had Robert Woods ahead of him in the rankings. I liked it. I stole Cooper Kupp in all drafts and I told you guys to get him.

4. Mark Andrews

All right, so that’s the third guy going to avoid him. Number four here, Mark Andrews. Another guy coming off a pinnacle year. “Well Joe, you’re crazy. How could you tell me to avoid Mark Andrews coming off a pinnacle year? He’s phenomenal. You’re telling me Joe to avoid all of the top players from every position. This is absolutely ludicrous. You’re telling me the opposite of everything that the mainstream is telling me.” Well, yes I am. Mark Andrews had a pinnacle year, 301 fantasy points. Now you’re saying, “Well, Joe had good years before.”

Not to this extent, 107. Let me repeat this 107 receptions, 154 targets, nine touchdowns. Okay. That was phenomenal. And I’m going to tell you guys why he had this type of year. Okay. When you’re looking at Mark Andrews, you got to look at the quarterback throwing to him. And the quarterback that was throwing to him near the end of the year, where Mark Andrews saw an increase in volume, was Tyler Huntley near the end of the season who played seven games, six of which he really got going and started getting those attempts up two and the targets up to Mark Andrews. So Tyler Huntley really favored Mark Andrews, Mark Andrews saw a major increase in volume for targets. I think that was a big part of Mark Andrews’s success. And again, saw an all-time high across every level. And the thing about is he’s going to be drafted very high in drafts, period. And I’m not going to invest that type of capital on a tight end, never mind a guy coming off a pinnacle year.

So I’m going to be, not drafting Mark Andrews this year. Going to be looking for value at tight ends later on as well. “Well, Joe, who are you drafting? You’re avoiding all these top guys, who are you drafting?” The 16-round draft solution explains it, also this channel. If you absorb all the content you will learn, you will dominate. So make sure you guys do subscribe, okay? And I go robust RB, so that’s, that’s the answer to that.

5. Kyler Murray

Number five here, another guy I’m avoiding is Kyler Murray. At the time of this recording, Kyler Murray is a guy that I will be dodging, simply for the fact that… Looking at his numbers in 2021, amongst other quarterbacks, he finished 10th amongst quarterbacks, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, played 14 games, had a little bit of an injury there. Was looking good at the beginning of the season, had a bit of a decline, and understand guys with Kyler Murray, he was on a pinnacle team here, in regards to targets. He had a ton of targets, even though Hopkins was banged up, stuff like that. He still had good targets.

And the fact of the matter is at the time of this recording, he actually went and deleted all of his Arizona Cardinal’s pictures off his Instagram, on his social media. So my concern here is, is he going to be on the Cardinals? Where is he going to be? Could he end up on the Packers? If Aaron Rogers gets traded. We don’t know. Maybe the Texans we don’t know. At the time of this recording if you’re listening to this pre-draft. Maybe it’s September, August, you catch this video. Maybe he’s on a good team. Maybe he thrives on that team. I don’t know, but I still don’t trust Kyler Murray. I still think there are other safer quarterbacks to be drafting, other than Kyle Murray.

I’m going to be staying away from him for the reason that there’s a lot of uncertainty, the fact that he’s a diva. He actually ended up blocking me on Instagram as well. A couple of years ago when he was talking crap about fantasy football and I stuck up for the fantasy football community. He was talking crap, anyway, long story short, he’s a diva. I’m going to avoid him. And even with a high octane potential offense and good receivers, he still didn’t do phenomenal on the Arizona Cardinals, finishing 10th amongst quarterbacks. You’re saying, “well, Joe, that’s good.” Yeah, but you want to know something. When you look at the rankings and where the consensus has him, he’s going to be a top-three quarterback on the consensus rankings. So they’re going to, you’re going to have to spend early draft capital to get him and I’m not going to do that with Kyler Murray okay?

6. Alvin Kamara

Coming in number six, Alvin Kamara. Now you’re going to say, “well, Joe, Alvin Kamara is a great player. Why would you avoid him?” Well, the decline was definitely happening with Drew Brees being gone, a regression in receptions, he was at 47 receptions in 2021, played 13 games, didn’t play the full season. And at the time of this recording, recently, he was arrested for a battery assault charge at a nightclub after the Pro Bowl. So maybe things change. Maybe he gets his head together. Maybe there’s… Everything clears up. And he does really well after this alleged assault or whatever happened here. And I heard it was pretty, pretty brutal from what he and his friends did. Apparently… I don’t know the whole story, but from my understanding, this one guy called them ugly. And then Alvin Camaro flipped out and they assaulted this guy.

So not cool, not a good look for a guy that I didn’t anticipate this from at all. And if off-field issues continue to happen, that’s a big problem for me as a fantasy manager who wants the best of the best on the field. I want the Derrick Henry’s of the world. I want the guys that put their heads down and work. Justin Herbert’s. I want the guys that have a good ethic. Alvin Kamara, the off-field issue kind of concerns me. Not to mention the regression when you’re looking at numbers, receptions, and Drew Brees being gone now. Who’s throwing the ball? Are the receptions going to be there for Alvin Kamara? That’s a big question mark. So I’m going to be dodging him as well at the running back position. All right.

7. Ezekiel Elliott

Number seven here. Zeke Elliott. Now Zeke Elliot still could have a couple of years ahead of him. Now one thing you got to notice was Ezekiel Elliot here is the regression over the past three years, 2019 301 attempts, 2020 244 attempts, 2021 only 237 attempts, 1,002 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and 10 touchdowns. Now that’s not bad. Okay. When you look at Ezekiel Elliott, this is a guy that was a 304 attempt type of running back. And I don’t like the regression. I don’t like the fact that they’re integrating Tony Pollard a lot more. And again, at the time of this recording, we don’t know what could happen. Maybe Zeke Elliott’s on a different team. We don’t know, but I will tell you this. I don’t like the regression I’ve been seeing over the past couple of years and I still got to invest top draft capital in him. And I’m not going to do that. So Zeke Elliot regression, I’m seeing it, statistically and historically declining.

And I think he’s kind of getting into the decline part of his year could have one more boom year, but I’ve seen what I need to see out of Zeke Elliot. And that is safe numbers every single year. When I draft of running back, especially early, I’m going for upside. I’m going for a ton of volume. And I don’t like the way it’s looking for Zeke Elliott the past couple of years. And I don’t want to play it safe in the early rounds. I want to get a guy that’s going to hit me home runs and get me the volume. A lot of it in the first round when I’m drafting somebody. So Zeke Elliotts, super safe regression, and that’s enough reason for me to be avoiding him this upcoming season.

8. Travis Kelce

Coming in number eight. Again, you’re like “Joe, man, these are big names. I can’t believe you’re avoiding him.” But Travis Kelce. Now here’s the deal with Travis Kelce. One of, if not the safest players to draft in fantasy football without a doubt. But when you look at Travis Kelce, you got to look at, man this guy has been picture perfect for years upon years. I mean this guy’s had phenomenal numbers dating, back to, I would say even in 2016, he’s been consistent every single year. Literally has pretty much not missed a game. I mean, he’s played almost every game. He’s missed two or three games in five or six seasons, which is phenomenal. I mean, going back to 2014, he’s played pretty much every game. So consistent, solid, strong, durable.

Why am I not drafting him? Simply for the fact that a decline is definitely due. I know you’re saying “Joe, that’s crazy.” He’s due. It’s got to happen at some point he’s been almost too perfect. That’s going to happen. An injury could happen, that’s number one. Number two the fact of the matter is I’m not investing an early draft pick on Travis Kelce very early. And that’s what you’re going to do if you’re going to draft him. Again, I’m loading up on running backs early, where he’s coming off and that’s reason enough alone to stay away from Travis Kelce, I’m going to stay away from him. I can get value at tight ends later and I can get a guy that’s got a ton of ceiling that can come close in regards to fantasy points to Travis Kelce without paying that price. Okay? To put it in perspective, back in 2021, Dalton Schultz, pretty much undrafted, late-round pick, finished with 208 fantasy points compared to 262 points that Travis Kelce had. And you pretty much got Dalton Schultz for free and didn’t have to pay the second-round draft capital.

So load up on a couple of tight ends with upside mid to late rounds. You’ll be good at that tight end position. As long as you get 10 points out of a game out of your tight end, I’m good. I’m going to be dodging Travis Kelce, cause I never invest early in tight ends. Anyway, people did it last year where George Kittle. The return on investment wasn’t that good for George Kittle. As he missed a couple of games, was a very volatile couple games. Even though Kittle finished fourth amongst tight ends, still, I wasn’t going to spend the early draft capital on him. Kind of busted based on his ADP. And again, I don’t spend early draft capital on tight ends. So Travis Kelce is the guy I’m dodging.

9. Tyreek Hill

Number nine here, I’m going to say Tyreek Hill. Again, very volatile from a game to a game base. I’ve said this before with Tyreek Hill. The thing about it is he always finishes in the top 10 when he’s healthy, played all the games. Tyreek Hill finished sixth amongst wide receivers last year, with 296 points. But the problem is a very volatile game in game out. And he’s going to give you a bunch of dud games. And that’s the issue. When I pull up his PPR numbers, I took a look at them. I mean in week two, 5.9 points, in week three, 9.7 points, really, really unacceptable. 7.3 points in week nine, 4.2 points in week 13, 3.9 points in week 16. So a bunch of dud-type of games. But when you look at his overall numbers, he has a bunch of boom games that kind of over-inflate his numbers. If you look at weeks 15 and 2021 32.8 points PPR. So he gets a bunch of big games that inflate his overall numbers.

But I don’t like that volatility, especially if a guy if I’m investing a guy in the first round, and he’s going to be going there. When I look at wide receiver consensus rankings right now, Tyreek Hill sitting top five. And again, I’m not investing that early in the guy that I can get. I get a wide receiver later and I get that good value. Last year I had Ja’Marr Chase later, finished top four. I had Cooper Kupp, fourth-round finishing in the top there. I suggested Amon-Ra St. Brown. He finished near the top as well. So you can wait on wide receiver, get good value without investing early on a guy like Tyreek Hill, who is extremely volatile. So I’m going to be dodging him as well.

10. Davante Adams

And the last one here, this is going to come as a shocker here, but, and before I say this last name, make sure you guys do subscribe and get that 16-round draft solution. And the guy I’m talking about here is Davante Adams, Davante Adams. Listen, here’s the deal with Davante Adams. I don’t know what’s going on with the quarterback situation. Whether Adam, Aaron Rogers comes back or not.

At the end of the day, Davante Adams, again a very pinnacle-type player, hit his ceiling and regression is imminent. And the fact of the matter is he’s been almost picture-perfect the past couple of years, minus missing a couple of games here and there. And again, we don’t know the situation with that offense is Aaron Rogers coming out strong? Is that connection going to be solidified? What’s going on with this offense? If he stays on the field, obviously he’s going to be solid and durable, but again, very early, high draft capital on him. And again, regression is imminent. There is a ton of wide receivers you can get later that could surpass Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp this year and probably will.

And you’re going to be loaded up with those guys after you got your running backs. That’s exactly what I explained in the 16-round draft solution. Let someone else take these guys. They may do well again and that’s fine, but I’m not investing in them. Last year, perfect example, let me give you another one. Deebo Samuel got him for value, people are drafting Aiyuk ahead of him, right? Deebo Samuel finished in the top. You can get a lot of value at wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase was pretty much undrafted or was drafted super late, finished top-five amongst wide receivers, right? Diontae Johnson was a fourth to fifth-round pick, finished top 10. Hunter Renfrow, literally either undrafted or a super late-round pick finished top 10. Jaylen Waddle, pretty much-undrafted 60th on the consensus rankings plus 60th-70th amongst rankings, finished top 13.

So there’s a ton of value at wide receiver. You don’t need to invest in guys that could be due for a decline after having some picture-perfect years, okay? So Adams is another guy I’m not investing early and a player I will be avoiding. Okay, guys. So that’s my top 10 players to avoid, first quarter 2022, diving in here for you. Make sure you guys do subscribe cause I will be talking about sleepers, breakouts, everything you need to get you guys prepared for fantasy football 2022. Subscribe and get the 16-round draft solution. Linked it below and head on over to thefantasyfootballcounselor.com. I appreciate you guys. Think smart think outside the box, and don’t follow the consensus rankings. You’ll be light years ahead of the competition. I’m out.

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Joseph Robert

Joseph Robert's outside of the box, LION mentality has created the strongest and most loyal fan base in the fantasy football industry! @fantasyfootballcounselor