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10 Fantasy Football Running backs you should not draft. The Counselor saves you from drafting a potential bust.
Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert, our Fantasy Football Counselor. Got an exciting episode here today. Well, you’re not going to be too excited because there’s a lot of names here that you’re going to be like, “Oh my God, Joe, you’re telling me not to draft that guy?” Yes, I am. We’re talking, running backs that you got to avoid, running backs that you do not draft for fantasy football, 2020. Stay away from these guys, draft somebody else. This is not the episode that you’re going to… You’re not going to be happy, you’re not going to do feel warm and fuzzy. You’re not going to say, “Well Joe, I really liked that guy and I want to draft.” No, you’re not going to draft him, because I’m going to tell you why you’re not going to draft him. We’re going to dive into 10 running backs. I got a list of 10 running backs here that you must not draft, and they’re big names, okay?
10 Running Backs to Avoid for 2020 Fantasy Football
- Joe Mixon
- Dalvin Cook
- Kenyan Drake
- Nick Chubb
- Chris Carson
- Aaron Jones
- Melvin Gordon
- Devin Singletary
- Austin Ekeler
- Melvin Gordon
1. Joe Mixon
All right. Who are we avoiding at the running back position for fantasy football, 2020? Number one, no particular order, I’m just doing it just to keep order for here as I’m talking to you guys. This guy, you got to stay away from. Now, he isn’t the guy I hate as much for fantasies as some of the other guys on the list here, but I’m going to stay away from him and I’ll tell you why. The guy I’m talking about first is Joe Mixon. I’m going to stay away from him, I’ll tell you why. It’s very simple. Now, last year he finished 11th. In 2018, he finished number nine. In 2017, number 32 amongst running backs, okay? So he’s going into his fourth season. He’s had three years, he’s been pretty decent, he’s been okay. He hasn’t been like, wow, I’m excited. And when I look at a running back, especially if I’m investing in the second round, I want a guy that’s got a high ceiling, okay? Joe Mixon has peaked, and I want to emphasize this to you guys. Peaked at 243 PPR fantasy points. Guys that is unacceptable. Another thing, he’s peaked at eight touchdowns, rushing on the ground. That’s it. Eight rushers. Derek Henry doubled that last year. So again, if I’m looking at a guy that I want to draft in the second round, and this is typically where he’s going to be going, right? I want to get a guy that has a higher ceiling. And again, he’s in an offense that is completely suspect with a new quarterback with Burrow, AJ Green, who knows what’s going to happen with him. Slight improvements on the old line.
I get it, which means a high ceiling, which means it could help him. But he hasn’t wowed me for years. He’s been good. I see the ceiling and trust me, this guy could have a huge year, could finish top five easily, but I don’t trust it. I haven’t seen the ceiling, so I’m just going to go ahead and avoid him. I don’t trust him, okay? We’re saying, Joe, you don’t trust this guy, you don’t trust this guy. Who would you draft? 16 round drafts, which you guys also, subscribe to this channel. I do a ton of videos on running backs I do like, okay?
2. Dalvin Cook
Number two here, I don’t like this guy at all. You guys know who I’m talking about, but I got to bring him up. And there’s a lot of running backs here that I haven’t really talked about that I’m going to be avoiding as well. Guys like Devin Singletary, Eckler, Gordon. We’re going to get into that. But this guy, I’ve said it a million times, I’m not going to dive too much into it, but I’m going to go through some facts with you. The guy I’m talking about is Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook, stay away. This guy is already threatening holdout. That alone is a big turnoff to me. The reason Dalvin Cook is threatening holdout, I’ll tell you guys why Dalvin Cook is threatening holdout. Because he knows he sucks, he knows he can’t finish the season. He has not finished the season in three years. 29. Let me repeat this guys. When you play three years, that’s 48 games. Do the math. 16, 16, 16 around 48. Right? There’s a bi-week in there, so the 17th. But you guys get it. Mathematically, 48 games approximately, give or take, 48 games in three years. You should be playing what? 48 games. Aside, maybe get injured, you’ve got a sick day, something like that. Let’s just say you play, 40. Let’s be really bad. Let’s say you play 40 out of 48. That’s bad. If you play 40 out of 40, you miss eight games and three seasons. That’s bad. No. He only played 29. 29 games out of 48. How terrible is that? Including four games his first season, 11 games his second season and 14, this one pinnacle season he had. He knows he blew his load last year. He knows that’s the best he could do. So he’s done, he’s washed up. Listen, Alexander Madison’s there for a reason. Alexander Madison averaged 4.6 yards per carry, 0.1 yard per carry more than Dalvin Cook. It’s not much, but the point I’m trying to make is, if you expand out Alexander Mattison’s performance over 250 attempts, which is what Dalvin Cook had, Mattison only had 100, if you expand that out, he would have performed just as good, if not better than Dalvin Cook.
I like Mattison, later. I’m staying away from Cook, especially drafting him in the first five, six, seven picks. Hell no. He has no business, no business being in and around the first round. He has no business being anyway, you shouldn’t draft him because he’s going to get hurt. Why would you draft a guy that has proven to you… It’s like being in a relationship, okay? Somebody cheats on you once, you shouldn’t go back, but you take them back. They cheat on you twice, I’m an idiot, right? Fool me once, shame on me. Do you know that whole saying? But three times, he has not finished a season, three times and you’re going to draft this guy in the first round? Get off my channel if you think Dalvin Cook is worth a first-round pick. I don’t care if he finishes first amongst running backs and fantasy points, just his history alone. And everybody’s telling… I keep hearing it in the news. Everyone keeps talking about it. Joe, if you get Dalvin Cook, just handcuff Madison. If you got to worry and everybody’s saying, when you draft a player, you got to get his handcuff, don’t draft that player. It’s that simple. That should be your red flag waving across the sky that says, if I got to worry about drafting a handcuff, maybe I shouldn’t draft this guy. Instead, maybe I’ll draft a Jacobs or a Henry or a Barkley or a Zeke or something like that. I get that player, and then I get Madison later. Now I’ve got two RB1s. Does this make sense? Now you’ve got one. Cook goes down, I’ve got Madison and Henry, right? You’ve got Madison and Jacob’s. You’ve got two RB1s instead of when Cook goes down, and he will, now you’ve got Madison, but you lose Cook. Stupidity. Okay? Just get Madison later. When you get anybody in the first round, just get them later. Right?
3. Kenyan Drake
All right. Now number three. This guy, huge ceiling, but I’m not drafting him. The guy I’m talking about is Kenyan Drake. Staying away. I’ll tell you guys why I’m staying away. Now, he is ranked eighth in PPR right now. Finished 17th last year, understandably so because he came into the Arizona Cardinals mid to late, earlier season. He didn’t finish the whole season with them, okay? Now he only had three good weeks. I think it was week nine, 15, I believe week 16 or something like that.
He had three really good weeks with them, okay? Now check this out, in three years with Miami… I’m going to repeat this, I want you guys to write it down. I know you guys are going to say, “Well, he was with Miami, Joe. He was with Miami, Joe, you can’t talk to me like that, Joe. He was with Miami, it doesn’t count, Joe.” Doesn’t matter. If you’re an elite running back, you’re going to shine in year one. If you don’t shine year one, you’re going to shine in year two. If you don’t shine in year two, you’re going to shine in year three. Okay? He hasn’t shined. He has not shined, okay? He has not shined. So the fact of the matter is, now he’s with the Cardinals. He had three good games with the Cardinals, but in three years he had 1,358 yards. I’m looking at it right now. 1,358 yards, nine touchdowns in three years. Derek Henry beat this in one year. Okay? Not three. In three years, he couldn’t perform the same way Derek Henry did, okay? And you’re going to draft this guy in the second round? It took him three years to not even accomplish what one running back can do in one season, you’re going to draft? You’re going to trust this guy. You’re going to trust an offense that took their top running back, their workhorse, their loyal guy that could have been just as capable, David Johnson, and bench him for this bottom feeder? You’re going to do that? You’re going to get this guy, that has done nothing for three years and draft him in the second round? You’re going to do the same thing. You didn’t get a slap on the wrist and a slap on the face when you lost your league last year, getting Damien Williams after I warned you, do not draft Damien Williams. He was a backup in Miami for three years, and you drafted Damien Williams the second round because the mainstream told you. You’re going to do the same thing again with Kenyan Drake?
Mind you, the ceiling is high. I totally understand this, right? And I could make an argument that Drake is better than Williams, and I totally agree with that, but it’s Kenyan Drake. ] they’ve got Hopkins now, they’re going to be throwing the ball a lot. I don’t trust it, okay? Especially the second round. Give me him in the seventh, eighth round. I may consider him as an RB4. Not in the second round.
4. Nick Chubb
Number four here, Nick Chubb. I’m going to avoid him. Another guy you do not draft. Nick Chubb. Listen, he had 1400 plus CRs last year, eight touchdowns. Pretty good. Now listen, he’s a second-round guy, coming off in the second round. But literally, when Kareem Hunt came back, he had two good weeks. Week 12 and week 14. Nick Chubb was outscored in PPR, six out of the eight games he played with Kareem Hunt. That’s all I got to say. He got outscored. Let me repeat this. And there’s a couple of points I want to make actually. Mind you, his attempts dropped. He did not exceed 17. After week 13, Nick Chubb did not exceed 17 attempts. Usually, he was getting 20, 23 attempts, 21, 19. He did not exceed 17 attempts after week 13. That’s when Kareem Hunt kind of found his groove. And then he only had two good weeks in fantasy, really good weeks, where he kind of took off, right?
When Kareem Hunt came back and he got outscored. So that’s all you need to know. Kareem Hunt is there, he’s going to be there for the full season. Kareem Hunt was the rushing leader in 2017. Why would you waste your time? And as people say, “Well Joe, sometimes you don’t talk stats.” I’m diving into stats more than anybody. People aren’t even telling you this stuff. I understand stats like this, six hours out of eight weeks, he outscored. Kareem Hunt outscored Nick Chubb. 1,494 yards, eight touches, that’s predicated on the nine or 10 weeks that Kareem Hunt wasn’t there, Nick Chubb was alone. Now you implement him? Dude, I know stats like the back of my hand. Oh, I remember 2016, 20 all-purpose touchdowns, right? He had 20 all-purpose touchdowns, 16 rushing on the ground, four receiving.
I’m not looking at any stats. I’m telling you right to your face. Oh, Joe, you like David Johnson, you know stats of everybody. Did you know that Zeke Elliot had about 303 attempts last year? Give or take one or two, I don’t know the exact facts. But the fact that I’m trying to make you here is, I know the volume. I know the attempts. I know what people do. I know what they’re capable of. I know when another running back is there, I understand the synergy. I understand the flow of the rosters and the depth and how things happen and how they move and everything. So when I look at Nick Chubb, I don’t trust it. I don’t feel good about it, right? Especially investing. A lot of people are going to draft this guy as their RB1. So you got to be careful with this.
5. Chris Carson
Next guy. Let’s move on. Chris Carson. Let’s rip through the rest of the guys here. Chris Carson. Listen, four games. His first season, 14 and then 15, the third season, hasn’t finished a season yet again. Listen, the Seattle Seahawks don’t trust him. They brought in Carlos Hyde. Now, Carlos Hyde sucks. Garbage. Okay? When you look at him yeah, he rushed over a thousand yards, but what’d he put up in fantasy points? 150? Again, off the top, I’m not looking at stats. People say, “Joe, you don’t know stats.” What did Carlos Hyde put out? I’ll tell you what Carlos put out, 153.2. I was off by three points. But again, guys, I know stats. I’m a human wrecking machine when it comes to stats. Now, Carlos Hyde, even with the 245 attempts, 1000 yards, right? Six rushing touches, only 153 yards. He just sucks. But here’s the thing when you’re looking at Chris Carson, that’s why I’m telling you do not draft Chris Carson. Running back to avoid Chris Carson because the Seahawks don’t believe in him. If they did, they would not acquire Carlos Hyde. They brought in Carlos Hyde, he’s going to be a thorn in the side. Now, Carlos Hyde sucks, but he’s good enough to be a thorn in the side of Chris Carson. You will be annoyed if you draft Chris Carson this year, I assure you, you will be annoyed. Avoid him.
6. Aaron Jones
Next guy, Aaron Jones. Guys listen, coming off the year of his life. He’s not going to rush for 16 touchdowns this year. They got AJ Dillon. They got AJ Dillon for a reason because AJ Dillon could if he’s good enough, replace Aaron Jones for the… They don’t want to pay Aaron Jones, maybe a big contract. If AJ Dillon could do a good job though, milk them for his rookie contract and get rid of Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon will be a thorn. I can’t imagine they acquired him in an early draft. I think he was their second pick or first or second pick for the Packers. Listen, they’re going to use Dillon. They’re going to use him around the goal line. They’re going to test him, they’re going to feel him out. They’re going to see how he does. And if Dillon breaks out for some big runs, look for him to get more volume. Aaron Jones had the game and the year of his life. The year of his life, I should say. Adams was hurt last year, they’re going to throw more. Aaron Jones now… They brought in Love, he’s going to be breathing down Aaron Rogers’ neck. So as a quarterback, everyone’s saying, you’re washed up. I could imagine Aaron Rogers having a good season, right? They brought Love in, breathing down his neck. I think he just signed his contract. So you got to understand guys, there’s a lot of pressure for Aaron Jones to succeed. Yes, because Dillon is behind him, but Dillon is still going to eat, trust me. I think the Packers are planning for their future. They won’t include Aaron Jones and Aaron Rogers. Be careful, okay? The Aarons are out, be cautious. I’m not going to invest a second-round pick. He’s number 12 right now guys, amongst running backs and PPR. Too rich for my blood. Four more guys here.
7. Melvin Gordon
Number seven, Melvin Gordon. Listen, with Melvin Gordon, new offense, new team, a new situation. And you’ve got this past that’s just hungry and wants to get… He’s in his delusional state of mind. Phillip Lindsay actually thinks he’s better than Melvin Gordon. And he will act like that and he will demand the ball and he will be a thorn in Melvin Gordon’s side. Now, if you look at this distribution there, guys, Lindsay ate a lot last year, had over about 1000 yards. I don’t have the exact number. Royce Freeman had around 496 yards. But listen, when you look at these guys, it’s a committee. It’s a major committee and I’m going to stay far, far away from this. Phillip Lindsay had 1,011 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, seven touchdowns on 224 attempts. Okay? Royce Freeman had 132 attempts. There are over 300 times gone between two running backs that happen to still be there. You’re bringing in Melvin Gordon. If you want him to succeed, he’s got to put up around 300 attempts, right? You want him to be a top guy. Now mind you, he’s ranked 18th amongst the consensus running backs [inaudible 00:16:20] He’s coming off in and around, round three to round four, maybe he slips to five, but that’s very rare. Not going to invest in Melvin Gordon this year, being that committee and that situation.
8. Devin Singletary
The next guy here is Devin Singletary. Avoid him. Listen, they brought in Zach Moss, AKA the Moss boss. Listen, this guy is going to eat. They brought him in for a reason, they do not believe in Devin Singletary. I’ve been to training camp with the bills, Devin Singletary is a small dude, kind of scatty, right? He’s a scat back. So, they looked at that and said, we need a power guy. They brought in Moss. Not good for Singletary. Now, if you’re looking at around five value, give me Montgomery who is actually the workhorse, the guy that could also catch the ball and is guaranteed those attempts. He had 240 plus attempts last year. Joe, you don’t know stats. You don’t talk. I’m not looking. David Montgomery, 242 attempts. Am I right? Let me just look at it here. David Montgomery who finished 24th by the way, in PPR, where are you, Dave Montgomery? 242 attempts, 889 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, six touchdowns in a Partridge in a pear tree. Listen, guys, stats. It’s all here. I know it. This is what I talk 16 rounds. And I’m telling you guys, this is going to help you guys. Get the draft solution, because you’re going to get players that are optimal. [inaudible 00:17:30] Singletary, Montgomery, no brainer. Give me Montgomery. More on volume, more on talent. He’s just a better running back in a situation where he’s going to get more volume than Singletary. Zack Moss is going to be a thorn in the side of Devin. Do not trust him.
9. Austin Ekeler
Two more guys. Number nine, Austin Ekeler. Stay away. Don’t buy fool’s gold. He had a great season last year, finished fourth in PPR last year, 132 attempts. Again, not looking at the stats. Joe, why do you keep bragging? Why do you keep saying you know stats? Because sometimes I get haters, right? And I love haters, they fuel my fire. I like it. So when they give me that, Joe, you don’t talk stats. Dude, I know stats, but sometimes I don’t talk about it because I see other podcasts elaborate for five minutes about one player and his stats and it’s so freaking boring, right? So I avoid that. I avoid that and I tell you guys, I’ve done the research, okay? I know what I’m talking about. Now mind, Ekeler could have a great season in PPR, but 132 attempts, 557 yards on the ground, three rushing touchdowns, don’t expect him to be a workhorse running back. But the fact of the matter is, he is being drafted like a workhorse running back. Ninth in PPR right now as a running back, drafted second-round value. This is another fool’s gold guy. I’ve stayed away and I’m avoiding. Austin Ekeler, I do not trust. He’s not a workhorse. Always been a backup, will continue to be a backup and guess what? They don’t believe in him, because they acquired and drafted Joshua Kelly, the Charters. New offense, suspect situation, different quarterback. It’s different guys, you don’t have River’s throwing the ball to him that many times, he’s not going to catch. I don’t think he’s going to catch 92 receptors on 108 targets. Could be wrong, but new situation guys, be cautious.
10. Raheem Mostert
And number 10 here. I’m actually, you know what? Number 10 is kind of a funny one, and I really want you to be cautious with this one. And I don’t want to say avoid it, but be cautious, okay? The guy I’m talking about, number 10, is Raheem Mostert. Now mind you, this guy could have a high ceiling, but everyone’s all over Raheem Mostert. My concern with this guy, now he had a good season last year, 132 attempts, 772 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, eight touchdowns. This guy is a bruiser. This guy is nitty, this guy is gritty, but I think Coleman is coming back. So you got to be careful. I’m just scared. Another thing with the 49ers is, they spread the ball around. But a healthy Coleman could be a thorn in his side, okay? So you got to be careful with Raheem Mostert.
Now some people are saying, “Okay, I get him for good value.” This and that. Yes, but just be careful. Now, this guy I don’t hate as much as the other guys because he’s not being drafted in the second or third round, so you’d get him for more value. But all I’m saying with this guy, again, I’m just on the fence a little bit about this. Just be cautious. I’m personally avoiding Raheem Mostert because I know that offense, they spread the ball around. Be cautious with Raheem Mostert. I’m personally avoiding him. And Coleman, if healthy, will be a thorn in the side of Raheem Mostert. Again, a lot of people are drafting this guy thinking he’s going to be a full workhorse running back. If Coleman is there, he’s going to be a thorn. Be cautious.
So again guys, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Kenyan Drake, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Melvin Gordon, Devin Singletary, Austin Ekeler and Raheem Mostert. I’m avoiding all these guys. There are a ton more guys I’m avoiding. Trust me guys, there’s a lot more, but I want to do a quick 10 list here before you guys get out there, and make you guys aware so you do not fall in the pitfall of making a mistake of drafting these guys. All right guys, that’s it. Smash a thumbs up. Get the 16 round draft solution. Guys, I appreciate you. Leave your questions below and subscribe to this. Number one fantasy football podcast, takeover imminent. And we’ll talk soon guys. Thank you. I’m out.
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