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Fantasy Football WR’s to avoid and not draft in 2020. The Counselor and Tom dive in and help you prepare for your draft!
7 Wide Receivers to Avoid for Fantasy Football 2020
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Chris Godwin
- Tyreek Hill
- Odell Beckham Jr
- Allen Robinson
- Amari Cooper
- Keenan Allen
You should technically be drafting running backs in the early rounds anyways. Guys like Todd Gurley, Josh Jacobs, and Leonard Fournette are primed to outdo the WR’s mentioned here in this article and transcription.
1. DeAndre Hopkins
Joe:
All right, Tom. So let’s roll into this: the first wide receiver I’m going to avoid. We’re going to try to focus on top tier guys, guys that are being drafted in rounds one to five. Those are the types of guys we want to talk about. Guys that are a shoe in for a big season. These are guys are going to perform, everyone’s drafting them in first, second, third round. They love these guys. So the first guy I want to avoid here, and again, I shock the world every time, but it’s DeAndre Hopkins. I don’t know if that’s a shock to a lot of people, but the thing about him, he finished fifth last year in PPR, so he’s not really a top three guy. The year before, had a great season. Finished number one with 333 fantasy points. Back in 2017, always finishing near the top, but back in 2017 did not actually finish first. Finished second in PPR, amongst wide receivers. Antonio Brown beat him back in 2017. But I mean, this guy’s always a top finisher and he’s always played with mediocre quarterbacks. But this year, he’s going to be going with Kyler Murray. I understand the ceiling, but Fitzgerald is still there. They’ve got Kirk there and Fitzgerald maxed out at 109 targets. Okay? Now, if Hopkins wants to produce on a top five-level, which is where he’s being drafted, looking at last year’s numbers, Tom, there are 150 targets, 104 receptions. Looking at 2018 numbers, that’s 163 targets, 115 receptions. So my question to you, Tom, and I kind of know my answer. I don’t think the volume’s there. Do you think the volume’s going to be there for Hopkins? What’s happening with this offense? I wanted to get your thoughts.
Tom:
I think Fitzgerald takes a step back. I think his role is going to be less than it was last year. I think Hopkins will perform there. One thing you have to look at is Kyler Murray, I don’t think he’s a great quarterback. I don’t know if he can be. This is going to be years two and three for quarterbacks, so where they really start to blossom. Or not blossom as in your friend, Mitchell Trubisky. I don’t know what we have in Kyler Murray, but one thing I can guarantee you is they’re going to throw the ball. So there’s a minimum of 100, 125 targets in my mind for DeAndre Hopkins. I also see him being the go-to guy there. I see them throwing the ball a lot. I see Fitzgerald taking a step back to… Fitzgerald. It’s funny because Fitzgerald isn’t a guy to spread the field. They have that in that rookie Isabella from last year, but he never really played much. They are okay offense. I just think… I don’t know, I’m not sold on the coach yet, but I really truly think DeAndre is going to get the bulk of the targets. But the problem that you may have is, if he’s too good and gets too much of the bulk of the targets or attempted targets, I should say before, he may get double coverage to back up what you say. That may leave the middle of the field open with a guy like Isabella stepping up, anybody stepping up. It could be Larry Fitzgerald sticking to his hundred targets or something like that because they finally have a guy who can command double coverage.
I think that’s the only thing you have to be concerned about over there. If they glue into him too much, he’s going to be facing a lot of double coverage. But with that said, I still think he’s going to get the targets. Murray is still growing as a quarterback. He led the league. He held onto the ball a lot, so I think he’s really going to develop as a quarterback. But I still think he gets 120 targets, 125. That’s my guess. I think he gets, as Fitzgerald goes down to about 80, that’s where I-
Joe:
I think that’s the ceiling, 125. Again, that doesn’t justify a first-round, end of first-round fantasy pick. Going back to the double coverage, I have a question for you. I know that Hopkins can bring the ball down, but you got to understand, there’s a rapport thing. My first question, is there going to be rapport? I don’t know. My second question is he’s already got a rapport with Fitzgerald and Kirk. Why wouldn’t you just go to them? And my third question is, and you can kind of answer it in one kind of question and these are things I’m going through my head and you should be too if you’re thinking of drafting Hopkins in the first round. It is okay. Yeah, he can bring the ball down, but with double coverage, can Kyler consistently thread the needle and get him the ball through double coverage like that? Is the rapport and the skill set there for Kyler yet, right?
Tom:
Yeah. And DeAndre, he’s more of a possession guy. He averaged, what? I don’t know if he’s like yards per catch last year. What were they? 11.2? He’s not a big-play guy. He’s a possession guy. And that’s what Fitzgerald was, and that’s what he is. But when you’re looking at Fitzgerald, I think you see a guy who’s a shell of his former self. He’s a seven, 800 yard a year receiver. I think he’ll come up, get some big third-down catches. I think he’ll get a couple of touchdowns, but I think it’s set up for Hopkins to be the one on the outside. I think he can come down with balls and double coverage, but he’s going to get a lot of separation off the line just because he’s a lot better than the other corners. He’s not going to go deep a lot and be that kind of deep threat guy. He didn’t do that in Houston a lot.
Tom:
So I mean, listen. He’s dealt with double coverage in Houston to some extent because who did they have last? Fuller and a couple of other guys, but Fuller was helped. See, that’s the key. Fuller was there to stretch the field. I think a lot of it sees if they can stretch the field and bring one of those safeties deep. That’s what you’re going to have to see. You’re going to have to see a guy like DeAndre Hopkins just getting more one-on-one opportunities at that first level and in that mid-level as well, where the safety can draw somewhere deep or he can use the middle of the field because that’s where his strengths are going to lie in my mind from what I’ve seen from him.
Joe:
Yeah. So, basically kind of reinforced what I was thinking, what I was saying. I just don’t think the volume’s going to be there. 125 targets just don’t do it for me for a first-round pick. And again, I’m just going to stay away from them. I see the ceiling, but you guys, as you know, my fantasy football draft strategy is going robust RB, and I talk about it in the 16 round draft so make sure you get it below. But I’m telling you, I go robust RB because I know the volume’s going to be there for guys that I’m getting like a Josh Jacobs or a Todd Gurley in first, second round. I’m not going for this guy.
Tom:
I still think he’s going to be their number one in reality. Fantasy wise, it’s going to be riskier to take him in the first, I agree with you. But he’s going to be a one that they sorely need and that Kyler Murray really, really needs. But you look, he came from that same offense in Oklahoma as Baker Mayfield came from as well, and they seem to grab don’t… I mean, Baker gravitated a little more towards Landry last year, right? Then Odell, but I don’t know. I don’t trust quarterbacks. Those are system quarterbacks. So that’s the other thing that scares me. You got to understand he holds onto the ball so long. Murray, this is really an important year for him. I mean, it’s obvious to say, but I have to say it. Just like Baker bombed in his second year, right? This third year, this is Donald’s third year. This is Allen’s third year. But Baker comes from the same system and that system in that spread offense made them successful. When you’re in a spread on offense, you have a lot of options. So, I can see what you’re saying. When you have the more options you have more targets to go around, not towards one person. And I don’t know what kind of quarterback Kyler Murray is going to end up becoming. I do think he wants a go-to guy. I think this will be his go-to guy, but he’s going to get the number one wide receiver targets. I just don’t think it’s going to be 150, 160 targets.
Joe:
Okay. And one more thing to wrap this up here, because we can go on about this forever, but Kenyan Drake caught 50 receptions for 68 targets. David Johnson literally didn’t play much, had 47 targets. Chase Edmonds, 21. There’s 100, 120 targets going to running backs as well. So I just don’t see… There’s just way too much. You’re just thinking of wide receivers. The running backs catch the ball there too. Just stay away. That’s my verdict. Don’t invest a second round, early second round, late first-round pick on Hopkins, get a running back at that point. That’s the verdict on that. What’s that?
Tom:
I’m sorry. One more point. I also think you have to take into account that I don’t think they’re going to be a great football team. They’re probably the last team in that division. Some people think they’re going to break out, but I think they’ll be behind a lot and they will be throwing the ball so that may get him some more opportunities.
Joe:
All right. So, stay away. That’s the verdict. The volume won’t be there. That’s my prediction. Yeah. What’s that?
Tom:
Warrant a first-rounder you’re saying.
2. Chris Godwin
Joe:
Yeah, yeah. Not a late first-rounder for sure, but that’s where he’s going. So if you don’t get him, you’re not going to get him, right? If you don’t pick him up there. All right, next guy. Actually let’s do a one, two punch. Two guys that I will be avoiding. The guys that we are going to talk about are Godwin and Evans with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, right now the average draft position for Godwin is mid to late second round on a 12 person league typically. Then you see Evans come right off the board in the third round. Now Tom, with these two guys, the consensus that is confused the way they have them ranked. Both of these receivers ranked in the top 10. Now it fluctuates typically around Godwin is sixth amongst wide receivers, Evans is around seven or eight. It goes up and down. The bottom line is they’re both in the top 10. The fact of the matter is they both won’t finish in the top 10. But Tom, here’s why the mainstream is confused is because Godwin finished second in PPR last year and they’re putting Evans in there by default because he’s technically the wide receiver one. So they’re very confused as to who’s going to get the bulk of the volume. And now if you’ve got a new quarterback thrown on the ball, this comes down to it’s a coin flip. So you’re investing a second round or third round pick on a coin flip because one of these guys can emerge and I’m staying away from both of them because of that fact. Now Godwin could have an amazing year, but with Brady throwing the ball, we know he gravitates to a specific wide receiver. Last year, it was Edelman who had 153 targets and 100 receptions. Then he kind of spreads the ball around. Now, I think there was like what? 95 targets for James White last year. So the running backs don’t get their share. The tight ends are going to get their share. Godwin, Evans, not enough to make both of them viable top 10 picks. I’m staying away. What are your thoughts? Is what I said might make sense, and what do you think of the Brady and who he’s going to gravitate to?
Tom:
Some of it makes sense. Yes. He’s definitely going to go with who’s open. Listen, Brady’s a veteran quarterback. He’s not a guy that needs to lock in on somebody, but like any quarterback, he’s going to want a comfort zone. Here’s where I think it differs a little bit, and I think where targets can be misleading in this situation. I think Brady loves the big play guy and he hasn’t had a lot of those in his career. The big tall receivers that can run a fast row and get deep down the field. And that’s Mike Evans, assuming he comes back healthy from his injuries and all that stuff. I think Mike Evans will end up with fewer receptions but will end up with more yards. His yards per reception are higher. He’ll end up with more touchdowns. Bruce Arians are going to ear it out. We all know that. In the fourth quarter, when they’re up to seven to 10 points, they’re going to throw the ball to go up 14. They’re not going to run the ball to protect the lead. That’s just what Tom Brady does. They put teams away. They put teams to sleep. That’s what they do. So I take Mike Evans over Godwin just because of the big playability and the more yardage ability, and I think Mike Evans is elite. He’s a stud. Mike Evans is better than Godwin. You got to look at one thing. When I look at receivers and I’ve looked at them and I’ve worked with them for years, you need to put together good year after a good year, after good year at least three years in a row in order for me to consider you good. And now Godwin, how many good years has he had? Right, one. So let’s back up a second, right? Godwin still needs to prove himself. And now, he could be the real deal. I’m not saying he’s not, but I’m going with the sure thing. I’m going with the big play capability. Tom Brady is a firework, 4th of July kind of guy. He wants the home run. He wants the touchdown. I’m going with that. They’re throwing to put points on the board. So I’m going with Evans over Godwin.
Joe:
That’s a good point. And like I said, Godwin’s coming off earlier in the draft because the mainstream is copying and pasting so by default, everyone thinks, “Oh because he finished second.” But that was a different quarterback, a different situation. One good year out of the three that he’s played. Evans, more consistent. I could see this happening, exactly what you said. I definitely see that happening. But again, just to avoid, it’s like just avoid it. If there are that many question marks and red flags, just avoid it. Then you got to look at the tight ends. How much is break going to be a factor or Howard and Gronkowski? Gronkowski hasn’t finished a season since God knows when. 2000, what? 12? He doesn’t finish seasons and I can’t trust the guy coming back rusty. I don’t even know if he’s in shape or form. He’s in shape. I think you’re going to see a better Gronkowski, maybe not in the box score, but you’re going to see a Gronkowski… Listen, when Gronkowski was on the Patriots, he was their number one receiver. He was getting double and triple coverage. I’ve seen it live. I’ve seen it all the time. Gronkowski was so good, they were putting him on the outside in some games and throwing him and teams couldn’t stop him. Gronkowski was getting beat up. He was getting hit at the line of scrimmage, hit in the middle of the field, hit in the secondary. Gronkowski was the number one receiver there.
Tom:
Here, he can be a guy, kind of like I spoke with Fitzgerald, that’s going to know his role as he gets older. He’s going to catch the big third down, the big touchdown. You got Evans, you got Godwin, you got Gronkowski. Gronkowski isn’t going to get all this double and triple coverage anymore. Gronkowski used to get triple covered. So, you’re getting Gronkowski that won’t put up the numbers that he did because he’s not the number one, not just tight end. On the Patriots, he was the number one receiver. He was over Edelman for sure. It was a go-to thing. They were going to Gronkowski. You know that. Third and long, third, and goal, whatever it was. So Gronkowski will produce, but not at the level of one anything. But he will make the big plays, and that doesn’t matter for you, but that matters for Tampa Bay.
Joe:
Right. He had a big year in I think 2016. Or was it 2017 I think was his big year. He had a huge year in 2017 and 2018, he had a pretty decent year as well. But again, this guy, it’s a different team, different offense, right? Different situations and finish seasons. But the fact of the matter is the ball is going to be spread around. So I’m just going to avoid them. It’s that simple, guys. And everyone says, “Well, Joe, I’m avoiding all these top receivers. Who do I get?” If you really want a receiver in round two, I like Golladay, don’t you think? Don’t you like Golladay? Do you think he’s going to get the volume?
Tom:
Yeah. I mean, he has to get the volume. Who else you’re giving it to?
Joe:
Jones, Jones.
Tom:
Yeah, Jones. I never liked Marvin. I mean he’s okay, but Marvin Jones isn’t good. Just-
Joe:
No.
Tom:
… put it that way. Marvin Jones is okay. He’s an average guy, but Golladay’s a lot better of a player and he was jelling really well with Stafford. I like that offense this year.
3. Tyreek Hill
Joe:
So do I. I’m excited. I’m really excited to see what they do there. All right, next guy here that I’m avoiding and another late first-round pick that I’m not touching at all, the guy I’m talking about here… Again, watching his training videos, the guy’s a monster, but Tyreek Hill. But he’s only what? If he’s finished two out of the four seasons he’s played. Last year, 12 games, got a little banged up, and the thing about him, Tom, is that he is extremely volatile. What I mean by that, obviously on a game by game basis, he’ll have a game where he has 40 points. The next game he’ll put up a donut or he’ll put up four points. The inconsistency is not good for a guy that I want to get in the first round. So for that reason alone, nevermind the off-field issues if they reoccur again, or if he gets injured or they have a lot of targets and all the other reasons why I’m going to avoid him. The talent is there, but I don’t see the consistent volume going to be there for him. I just don’t see it, Tom. I don’t. I mean, one more thing before we get into your thoughts on this, this guy maxed out at 137 targets in his career. That’s the most targets he’s seen in a year. Maxing out at that. That was back in 2018. Last year, only 89 targets. Again, that’s because of 12 games. The ceiling isn’t high in regards to attempts in volume. You’re going to get some huge games, a great DFS player if I play him a week to week in daily fantasy, but for a year-long guy, forget it. What are your thoughts? Would you invest in this guy?
Tom:
Well, yeah. It just matters where obviously. Now let me tell you something. I don’t think he’s ever going to be in this offense, a hundred reception a year guy. He’s more of a big-play guy, like we just talked about with Evans, even though Evans used to be a volume guy as well. Two years ago, he averaged 17 yards. The year before that, 15.8. Last year, 14.8. He went down a little bit. Last year, he only played 12 games. He’s a thousand-yard receiver if he plays 16 games, but that doesn’t warrant you a first-round pick. Correct?
Joe:
Right.
Tom:
Listen, if you have him on your team, you’re right, he’s going to drop some goose eggs on you. But then you’re going to have some 180-yard games. And he’s definitely, definitely going to have some big games. I don’t think this offense is designed for him to have big games or even really good games, 16 games because it’s the offense. They’re going to spread it around. It’s the West Coast offense. He’s the type of guy also to catch a five-yard pass and bring it to the house 70 yards. You’re not going to do that every week, and he gets a lot of big plays. You don’t have big plays every week. So he’s a guy that you’re going to pull your hair out. You’re going to be unhappy with on a weekend way [inaudible 00:17:10] because you could end up at what? Five points one week with him?
Joe:
Yeah. I don’t trust that. I don’t like that.
Tom:
I told you before. I like sure things. To me, he’s not a sure thing week in, week out. Listen, he might win you a couple of weeks if he goes for 10 catches and 200 yards and four touchdowns, right?
Joe:
Yeah.
Tom:
But is that worth sacrificing a couple of goose eggs?
Joe:
I’m not touching him. And the thing is if you really want to get a volatile player from the Chiefs and you want some Chief stock, get Mecole Hardman after the 10th round for free. Nobody’s drafting that guy.
Tom:
Exactly.
Joe:
And he’s just going to have those volatile games as well. If that’s what you want. [crosstalk 00:17:44] What’s that?
Tom:
Andy Reid’s playing to win the game. He’s a smart coach. Everyone’s coming after them this year. They’re the division favorite, the AFC favorite, they’re the Super Bowl favorites again. In the AFC, they are the favorites. I mean, people can argue the Ravens, but in the NFC maybe the Niners you can say. They can definitely beat them. They almost did in the Super Bowl. So I think Andy Reid’s going to… That’s the way he game plans to spread the ball around and to trick the defense and [crosstalk 00:18:15] always been doing that. So I think you’re going to see more of that. Yeah. I’m just avoiding it. He’s really good, but it’s just not a good fit for that area.
Joe:
Yeah. And guys, you’re seeing it. This is not a biased opinion by any means. It’s good to like for me to do the research and I know my stuff for fantasy, but to get that reassurance from Tom, it’s really good to get that because he lives and breathes pro football so it’s interesting to get that reinforcement. For me, it just gives me my own pat on my back, gives us a pat on the back, Tom. Thank you. And he doesn’t agree with me usually. You should see us off the air. He wants to punch me. I want to punch him in the face too [crosstalk 00:18:55] a couple… There are times… Okay. All right. I’m just joking.
4. Odell Beckham Jr
Joe:
All right. The next guy here now, we kind of talked a little bit this off the air, Tom, and I kind of see your point. Maybe there could be a better year out of him, but for fantasy, he’s sucked the past three years. The guy I’m talking about is Odell Beckham Jr. This year, he could come back. This could be the year. I mean, three years in a row, Tom, he was drafted in the first round by the mainstream. They said, “Draft Odell first round.” Last year I said Landry would outperform him. I said this. I went viral with it. I put my reputation on the line and people laughed at me. They said, “Hey, Joe. Tie Joe up in a straight jacket. Send them over there. Punch Joe. F you Joe. Screw you, Joe. Shut down your channel, Joe.” Oh man, I got ridiculed by saying Landry would outperform him. Now, it seems like the norm that Odell kind of is a little overrated. What do you think about this year? Is there a step up? Does he finally come back to four or five years ago?
Tom:
I think he’s going to come closer. Listen, he had the worst year of his career last year, besides in 2017 when he was injured. But listen, if he plays 16 games, he’s getting 13, 1400 yards. That’s who he is. I do think that. And now I think he might have fewer catches than usual, but bigger plays because… Kind of similar to what Stefanski did in Minnesota, he had Adam Thielen was the one guy as the possession guy, as Jarvis Landry. And then picture Odell like Diggs. Diggs had a better year when Thielen was there. Diggs had more catches last year, but fewer yards and I think fewer touchdowns, less performance. People don’t understand. It’s so important to have another good wide receiver on the other side of you and also even around you to spread the field because I think Odell will have bigger plays this year, perform bigger than last year. My problem with him is Baker Mayfield. I don’t like the guy. I don’t think he’s a great quarterback. I think this is his year where he really has to prove it, otherwise… Listen, I’ve talked to some people, they signed Case Keenum for a lot of fricking money for a backup. Stefanski worked with… I don’t know if I said this before. He worked with Keenum in Minnesota when Keenan was like 13 and three. He went here because Stefanski is going to go to him if Baker starts off shitty. He’s going to go to him, obviously, if Baker gets hurt. Keenum is a system quarterback. He’s been that since college. He did not succeed in Denver or what’s it called? The system in Washington because that’s not his system. He fits this system. I think he’ll be better with a guy like Case Keenum. Of course, what scares me in Cleveland is the quarterback. If you put a different quarterback here, you got Odell going for 1400 yards. You’ve got Landry getting 1200 yards and being that possession guy. So I think there’s room for that. I’m just worried about the quarterback situation in Cleveland. Now, Baker hasn’t spoken a lot this offseason, which is smart for him. I hate when guys, like I told you this before, whether it’s your buddy, Zach Moss, all these people that talk shit and they don’t play. You haven’t played the game yet, you don’t deserve to talk, or you better back it up.
So I’m more concerned about the quarterback situation this year. If Baker goes into himself or they have a quarterback that can play really at a good level, I think Odell will get 13, 1400 yards because that’s what he is. And I think Odell has something to prove this year. I really think he’s going to get some big plays. It’s just a matter of how many with what quarterback if that quarterback can produce.
Joe:
Well, he’s come out and said that he’s going to have one of the biggest, best years of his life. He’s ready to go. He’s healthy. He had that surgery in the offseason or whatever he did. When did he have that surgery? I don’t know.
Tom:
A while ago. He’s fine. He’s going to get the opportunity to get it. I told you, I’m worried about the quarterback situation here. Just because I’m not sold on Baker yet. I need to see something. I’ve never been sold on him. I mean, people last year thought he was going to come out and be a stud. I was laughing. I mean, seeing this guy play lie, just nothing impresses me. He was a system quarterback [inaudible 00:22:55] but in college and I don’t know. Maybe Stefanski can get it out of him and if he can, Odell is going to have a good year. I do think so.
Joe:
The targets, that’s another concern there. Now with Kareem Hunt potentially playing an entire season now, I’m looking for him to catch the ball quite a bit. I think he’s going to be used a lot more in the passing game. That’s a concern. They got Hooper there to catch the ball as well. So I think they’re going to spread the ball around and Landry’s there and bottom line, he’s got that rapport with Baker prior to Odell being there. So it’s going to be interesting. I think this goes back down to volume again and can Odell continue to stay healthy? He’s had some weird injuries in the past and if he stays healthy and gets the volume, yeah, man, top 10 for sure. But right now, I don’t trust a man three years of getting screwed by him. Not me personally, but people have. I was the only that said, “Stay away from this guy. He’s overrated.” We’re going to have to see a man. It’s going to be interesting. And the offense, I’ll be keeping an eye on for sure.
Tom:
What was disappointing last year was just touchdown total. That was really disappointing because he’s a guy that always found the end zone. Usually a double-digit end zone guy, except when he’s played almost a full season. [crosstalk 00:24:03]
Joe:
Four touchdowns, man. That’s nothing.
Tom:
That’s what worried me and listen, new coach again. Third-year in a row, new coach. I’m more worried about the coaching and the quarterback than I am about these receivers. If that stuff works out, both of these receivers will be good. That’s my opinion on it. I just don’t know if you’re going to have the right coaching.
Joe:
And to give you an idea of how bad he is with touchdowns, the past three years, he’s had 13 touchdowns in three years. He had equal to that back in his 2015 year with the Giants. So four touchdowns last year, six in 2018, only three in 2017 because he only played four games. He was injured in 2017. But that doesn’t matter. I look at the stats. I look at fantasy production. I look at where he’s being drafted and he’s done nothing. 13 touchdowns in three years. That’s not good. So yeah, he’s got to get his touchdown count up significantly.
Tom:
Yeah, he does.
Joe:
Is there any wide receivers, early-round guys that you’d avoid, maybe like a Keenan Allen, anyone you don’t… Amari Cooper?
5. Allen Robinson
Tom:
Not Cooper. I mean, well, there’s a few that I’m okay on. I don’t know how high these two guys are going. One of them may be Keenan, but let’s talk about Allen Robinson first.
Tom:
I’m not huge on Allen Robinson. He’s only had two 1000 yard seasons in his six years in the league. So I mean, he’s a guy who has never put two back to back seasons, good seasons in a row. So he’s a guy just statistically looking, I just would pass on Allen Robinson. What about you?
Joe:
That’s a really, really tough one because I think he’s the main guy there. I don’t think Miller or anybody else would come in there and steal the volume. Now Mitch Trubisky is now saying it’s his team. Is Mitch going to step up and continue to feed Robinson? Because Robinson had a pretty good year last year. Is that going to carry over to this year? But yeah, I see the volatility with Allen Robinson, but maybe now he’s finally gotten his groove. Last year, he finished eighth in PPR last year. 16 games, 154 targets, 98 receptions, seven touchdowns over 1100 yards. So the 154 targets is kind of appealing to me. I kind of like the look of that. Third in targets amongst wide receivers. So, that is something that’s really drawing me to him. The other thing that’s drawing me to him again is the fact that Mitch Trubisky says he’s got to perform. Another guy like Baker Mayfield that has to step up. Am I investing in round Robinson second, third, maybe fourth round if he falls that late? No, I’m drafting running backs where his ADP is. I’m going to stay away, but there’s an appeal to him. There’s a ceiling there. There’s something attractive about him for fantasy, but I’m just not really drawn in by it this year.
Tom:
There’s not much attractive about the Chicago Bears. Here’s one thing I think you made a mistake.
Joe:
What is this?
Tom:
Nick Foles wins that job.
Joe:
Okay.
Tom:
I think you need to start looking at Nick Foles. Listen, they’re not paying Nick Foles $18 million to sit on the bench and keep it warm, or whatever the number is. Nick Foles came in there because it’s a safety net. Nick Foles is the guy there because he knows the offense, and I know Trubisky does, but he knows that’s the same offense Peterson pretty much runs in Philly. Similar. They both come from Andy Reid’s coaching tree. So you’re going to see something… He’s on the hot seat right now, Nagy is.
Joe:
Right.
Tom:
He could go on the mid season if they’re two and six. So when you’re on the hot seat, you go after comfort and you go after winning. You’re not trying to rebuild. I mean, they can’t even rebuild. They don’t even have a young quarterback, but I think they know what they got in Trubisky and I think they know the best way for Trubisky to succeed is a change of scenery. So I think Trubisky becomes the backup, Foles comes in. So I think you need to look at it when Nick Foles comes in as the starter.
Tom:
Now I don’t think Nick Foles is a great starter, but he’s not going to lose you many games. So I don’t think they’re going to be throwing the ball a shit load and not big plays, big passes. So Allen Robinson could be his go to guy. I like Miller to take a step off. I don’t like Jimmy Graham. I like the rookie tight end over there. I like Montgomery… I’m talking to like it for the Bears, not like him in general. I just don’t like this offense. I don’t like that team, but I think they have a tough, tough defense. They’ll keep him in the games. Their goal is to win 17, 14 football games. Not their goal, but that’s their only opportunity. So win like 14 to 10, 17 to 14, 20 to 17. They’re not going to be going out there scoring 30 points a game. So you’re not going to get a ton of touchdowns from this guy.
Tom:
Like I said, he’s played 16 games last time in 2016 before last year. So can he put another good year together? Maybe. I think his ceiling is about 1100 yards, 1000 yards. So I don’t think he’s going to take that step off and excel in this offense again.
Joe:
Yeah. Just to wrap this up. I’m not touching Allen Robinson because again, I’m drafting a running back at that ADP. But just to go back to the quarterback to wrap this up thing, I mean, I agree with you. If I want to play it safe and smart and I want to win games, you go with Foles, but I just see Mitch Trubisky starting the season out and if he’s on a roll, if he’s he’s three and 0, that he stays on.
Tom:
Who?
Joe:
Sorry, Trubisky. I see him starting it.
Tom:
Yeah. I don’t know. I mean, listen, all that stuff’s possible.
Joe:
Yeah. I mean, because the thing is it’s got to be in camp. If Foles completely blows them away in camp, then yeah, then Foles starts. But I think it’ll be an even match. I think Mitch Trubisky knows he’s got to play his heart out. I don’t think there’s going to be a big gap in training camp to say, “Okay, Foles is far superior. Let’s start him.” I think Mitch makes a case for it, gets the start, crumbles and then Foles comes in.
6. Amari Cooper
Tom:
Maybe. I don’t know if the teammates respect Trubisky. I don’t know how it is there. But you want to go to Keenan Allen quickly?
Joe:
Yeah, we’ll do Keenan now. I think that’s pretty much it for the early guys that you definitely want to be cautious of and be aware. Actually, two more guys. I want to talk Amari Cooper. I have him pulled up here and then Keenan Allen and then we’ll wrap this up here. Amari Cooper, I’m concerned. He peaked at 119 targets last year, 79 receptions, 8 touchdowns, and over 1100 yards. I get it. But they now have CeeDee lamb. Now they had Randall Cobb there last year, Tom. 83 targets, 55 receptions. Now we know CeeDee Lamb physically is a better athlete: young, hungry, one of the top prospects coming in. But we don’t expect a lot from rookie wide receivers, but he’s there. I think he’s going to be utilized. I think he’s going to be used a lot. They’ve got Pollard maybe coming in, catching the ball a little bit. They’ve got Gallup who could be technically a wide receiver in his own rights. I think he’s just right there. He’s not [inaudible 00:30:29] but I think he’s good. He’s got a nose for the end zone. He catches the ball. He runs hard after the catch, but you’ve got all this talent. I don’t see Amari Cooper being a big volume guy and a guy that I can trust. What do you think of Amari?
Tom:
I think he’s a really good wide receiver. I think he can be consistent. He just suffered from drops early in his career. He wasn’t well-loved in Oakland. He was playing with an inferior quarterback in Carr. I think this year is the year of Dak Prescott. I think Dak has everything approved to make his money. So I think Cooper’s going to get the ball a lot. I think he’ll do what he did last year. Eight touchdowns, 1200 yards almost, give or take a hundred yards. I mean, I’m not looking at a monster year because they have other options and McCartney’s going to spread the ball around, coach on that offense. But listen, this year, Dallas is a team. They went 12 and four and 16. Then they went down, then they went to the playoffs then down. They’re inconsistent. That’s who they are, but they’ve been better with Cooper. I think Cooper is the one option on this offense. I think Cooper by default is going to get 1100 yards this year. So I like Cooper as a player. I think he’s a really good wide receiver in the NFL, but not a megastar, not a top five.
Joe:
So CeeDee Lamb doesn’t scare you to take some of that volume?
Tom:
Not this year. Like I said, he’s a rookie. Like you said, he’s a rookie. I don’t know how good CeeDee Lamb is either. A lot of these rookies just bomb. If you could go back and look at the first round five years ago, six years ago, four years ago, “Yeah. Oh this guy’s good.” Half these guys don’t even end up being good. Kevin White never made it.
Joe:
I know.
Tom:
So I’m not going to put stock in a rookie. Even though he was first round and I think he’s good, I think he’ll… Look at Marquise Brown last year. His best game of the season was week one and I’m sure everybody was jumping the waiver wire for him [crosstalk 00:32:13] but he’s a rookie. They hit the rookie wall. CeeDee Lamb’s good, but you think Prescott’s going to trust CeeDee Lamb on the big plays? He’s going to go to him for some big plays probably and he can end up being better than Cooper. But this year… Cooper, when he was a rookie had a thousand yards. He had a good year, but I mean that’s a thousand yards with 63 yards a game. He only had 119 touches last year, targets, and he put up 1200 yards. I think he had a good season. I can see that. Jason Witten’s gone. Not that he was super, super productive last year, but I’m not too hot on their tight end game. I think CeeDee Lamb’s just another weapon on that offense. But Amari’s still the one and still the man there. He will have good games.
7. Keenan Allen
Joe:
Another guy not on my radar. I just think CeeDee Lamb will be a factor. It’s going to be an annoying situation. So last guy, Keenan Allen. I mean, who’s throwing the ball? Weren’t the Chargers looking at Colin Kaepernick as well? Like a month ago, I heard some buzz saying he’s a good fit for them. I mean, who do they trust? Do they trust Herbert or whatever the hell his name is? Do they trust Tyrod Taylor? I don’t trust anybody, and Keenan Allen, I don’t really trust as a receiver in general. Would you consider Keenan Allen at all?
Tom:
Oh, Keenan Allen. I mean he’s a productive wide receiver. He’s a good player. He’s a guy most teams would love to have on their team as an option. He’s not so much a… I don’t know. Last year, I don’t think he had much big-play capability. He’s not a big, big-play guy. He’s a really good possession guy. He’s a guy that can catch the ball. He’s got good hands. He’s a guy that you’d want on your team. He’s not a big touchdown, big scoring guy. But these kinds of guys usually aren’t that good with Tyrod Taylor. So I think this offense fits Justin Herbert better. I’m not sold on Justin Herbert yet, but Tyrod Taylor bombed in Cleveland a couple years ago. Before that, he took the Bills to the playoffs, but they didn’t like him enough. I think Tyrod Taylor may go with this team to a certain extent, then they’ll put Herbert in towards the end of the season, middle of the season. But I would stay away from him. I mean, he’s a good player and he’ll get the ball, but I just think it’s going to be frustrating at times because Tyrod’s not a good thrower.
Joe:
Right. He’s not.
Tom:
Yeah. I’m staying away. I’ve watched him. I keep going back to that example where you’re down by four points. You got Tyrod and you got it at your own 20, two minutes left and he’ll go three and 0. I don’t trust this guy. He’s anticlimactic. He’s not a guy that’ll win games.
Joe:
No, he’s not. And Philip Rivers was there last year. Had probably one of the worst years of his career. He had a really bad year. They don’t have a great O line either. They don’t have a running game.
Tom:
No.
Joe:
I’m not sold on Eckler. Everyone’s so high on Eckler. He had a good year last year, but that was Rivers’ dumping the ball off to him, getting a lot of receptions. He only had 132 attempts as a running back. So not sold on this [crosstalk 00:35:16]
Tom:
… right? Two years ago, this team just went downhill pretty quickly. I can see them being pretty bad next year. I mean, listen, could they put some magic together? Be six and six, all of a sudden. Listen, if you’re six and six through 12 games and you got four left, you know Tyrod’s not going to take you in the playoffs. So then they’ll put [crosstalk 00:35:34] to try to move the ball. They have a good defense and that’s what you have to watch out. They have a decent secondary. They got really good… Derwin James is good. Bosa’s really, really… Got a couple studs on that team. They have a good defense, so that could keep them in some games and that’s all they want Tyrod to do, keep them in the game. Khalil Mack and that defense, “Keep us in the game. Just win it in the fourth quarter for us.” So that’s got to be their model. No coach is going into this season saying, “We lost. We’re tanking for Trevor Lawrence this year.” Last year, it was tanking for Tua. They’re going to go in and try to make the playoffs, right? And there’s seven teams in the playoffs this year, so you might see people behaving a little different, quarterbacks towards the end of the season. So you’ll see Herbert if they’re sucking or even if Tyrod’s got them stalled at the halfway point or something where they need Herbert can come in and maybe win some games because you know that offense isn’t going to win you many football games with Tyrod Taylor.
Joe:
Not at all. So that’s it, guys. Sort of covered a lot, man. I gave you a lot of receivers here to avoid, especially early round guys so you don’t have any potential pitfalls here. Now, mind you the ceiling could be phenomenal with guys like Hopkins, guys like Odell this year, but I went over the facts on why I’m avoiding them and you should be going robust RB early and I talked about that in 16 round draft solution. Make sure you guys get it linked below or the fantasy [inaudible 00:36:46].com and Fantasy Direct at the fantasyfootballcounselor.com with direct access. I’ll text you guys everything you need this season from waiver wires to optimal players, DFS, even my picks against the spread. Tom’s going to help me with that too this year. So it’s going to be exciting, Tom. I’m ready, man. What do you think, the season’s happening or what?
Tom:
Yeah, it’s happening as of now, a hundred percent. They’re trying to negotiate on the preseason if there’s going to be two to four games, but nothing’s been agreed to contrary to what’s been reported.
Joe:
Fans in the stands or no? I say no.
Tom:
I don’t know. I think it depends on the states to be honest. I don’t know if the NFL is going to overrule that, but there are some states that are going to come out and say, “We will have a certain amount of fans in the stand.” There are some States that don’t care about anything as much. And then there are other states that won’t allow it. So right now, it’s going to be a mix, but the NFL can always come in and say, “We are not going to allow any fans in any stand anywhere.” So I don’t think they’re allowing them in baseball. I don’t think they’re allowing them in basketball. They’re definitely not. So in football, the good thing for them is that it’s a ways away. I read an article today. I’m down here near Miami. Miami’s trying to fight to put some fans in the stands. In my opinion, nobody will have a hundred percent in the stands.
Joe:
No.
Tom:
So you’re going to try to see some people looking for 25 to 50% maybe being more towards that 25. I don’t know if that would even be granted.
Joe:
Yeah. All right. Well, yeah. I just see it being minimal stand, maybe some masks on, stuff like that. But it’ll be interesting, man. Let’s just get a season going. I need football in my lifetime. I can’t deal anymore. I need it. I’m not sane. This is crazy.
Tom:
I watch Korean baseball.
Joe:
No, I’m more interested in the UFC right now. I’m watching some MMA. Gets me through it. That’s about it, man. That’s what’s getting me through it is just UFC. That’s all I got right now, man. So, yeah, man. Well, Tom, thanks for being here. Guys, check out the Tom Santinello podcast available on Apple. And is it on Spotify or just on Apple right now?
Tom:
Everywhere. Couple YouTube just went up too.
Joe:
Okay, guys. Make sure and follow Tom Santanello. You know how to find him, guys. Go do Apple and iTunes app and just search Tom Santinello podcast. Great, real football insight information from him. Thanks, Tom, for being on man. Great episode. Lots of insight for you guys to help you through your leagues. Get 16 rounds. We’ll talk to you guys soon. Thank you
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