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Top 10 Fantasy Football Boom or Busts 2020. The Counselor lays out players that could really go off this year or have a terrible year. We lay out the facts and educate you before you consider drafting these players.
1. Tyreek Hill
This guy’s ADP is extremely, extremely high. When I mean high, he’s top-three wide receiver amongst wide receivers in rankings right now, which means you’re going to probably pay an end of the first-round draft pick for him if you want him. Now, when I talk about boom or bust, he fits that definition. Now, if you look at his stats, last year he finished 32nd in PPR, not good at all. Right? Not good at all. He only played 12 games, a little banged up, 860 yards, seven touchdowns. You’re saying, “Joe, okay, a bit of a fluke year. .I’ve actually been watching training videos on Tyreek Hill, elite talent. This is a guy that I loved years ago. I was saying he’s better than Antonio Brown, people were like, “You’re crazy.” I’m like, “Dude, this guy is a freak athlete,” right? What turns me off of him is the off-field issues and of course the domestic stuff and the injuries in the past. That’s one big turnoff right there. Another turn off of him is that there’s a lot of mouths to feed with KC. Now they’ve got Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is probably going to catch the ball quite a bit. I think so. They’ve got Williams there, still catching the ball in the backfield. They’ve got Kelce. They’ve got Mecole Hardman. They’ve got a ton of targets. Sammy Watkins saying he’s going to catch a hundred balls this year. Doubt that’s going to happen. But what I’m saying is there’s a lot of mouths to feed and that’s something you have to be cautious about. Another thing I don’t like about him is that he has really boom or busty type games. He’ll have a game where he’ll have 40 points, next week he’ll like two points. The big turnoff to me, right? When you look at his stats here also, in 2016 he finished 25th amongst wide receivers in PPR. He played 15 games in 2017 and finished ninth. In 2018, finished third.
I’m not seeing top-three finishes quite often here. In fact, the only time I see as of recent date was 2018. He had that really good year. When I look at Tyreek Hill here, I think to myself, I’m not investing a first-round pick in a guy that’s extremely volatile on a game-by-game basis, and of course, hasn’t really finished as a top-three consistently. And there’s a lot of targets to feed. When I look at Tyreek Hill, there’s a lot of question marks and that’s why he’s a boom or bust player. The verdict on this one, am I going to draft him? I’m going to say no to Tyreek Hill, be cautious, and draft a running back there in the first round. I talk about all this in the 16-round draft solution. Okay?
2. Nick Chubb
The second guy here, boom or bust player, is Nick Chubb. Now Nick Chubb had an amazing year last year, so much so that he actually finished eighth amongst running backs. 1,494 yards, which is pretty phenomenal. Eight touchdowns on the ground, not bad as well. 49 targets, 36 reception, sorry, sorry. He had 49 targets, 36 receptions for 278 yards. Now Kareem Hunt came in near the end of the season and outscored him six out of the eight games they played together. When you look at Chubb and you’re leaning boom or bust, he could boom, trust me, he could still have a great season, but I’m leaning a little bit more bust when you look at Nick Chubb because again, Kareem Hunt is there. Kareem Hunt was not there for the first 10 weeks of the season last year. When he came in, he took at least half of the volume, even outscoring him in PPR numbers. Nick Chubb’s a guy that I’m going to stay away, but is a guy I got to mention here as a guy that could boom or bust. It’s very, very hard to trust when you look at Nick Chubb, okay?
3. DeAndre Hopkins
Third guy here, very, very boom or busty kind of guy here. Now, there’s more than the 10, but these are the top-10, no particular order, but they’re in the top-10 that caught my radar that that could really boom or bust this year, but more bust. When it comes to a question mark of is that guy going to boom or bust, I tend to stay away. I want to make a disclaimer on that. Okay? I tend to stay away from all these guys pretty much, but I will give you some scenarios where I may draft them. All right. Number three, Deandre Hopkins currently sitting number five amongst wide receivers. Now, when I look at this guy, I really don’t trust him. I don’t trust him at all because he’s on a new offense, new quarterback, new rapport with Kyler Murray. Now last year he finished fifth amongst wide receivers, but he had 150 targets. I keep going back to this example because it’s very important, Larry Fitzgerald had 109 targets. He was a wide receiver one on the Cardinals. He maxed out at 109 targets. Christian Kirk had 107. They’re still there. Now, even if they see a reduced workload, I still question is Hopkins going to get 150 targets and finish top-five, which is where he’s being drafted. He’s drafted at the end of round one, and I don’t trust it. I don’t think the volume is going to be there. I think the Cardinals lineup four wide. I think Hopkins sees a lot of double coverage. I think Kyler Murray goes to his reliable targets, that is Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald. He’s also got Drake out of the backfield. I am really, really suspect about Deandre Hopkins. I think he’s a major bust this season. Be cautious. But again, I got to put them in here, boom or bust because he could definitely boom. You could look at it the other way, half glass full. You could say Kyler Murray’s young, dynamic. Hopkins has done well with really crappy quarterbacks before. He builds that rapport. I heard they’re training together. He builds that rapport and he does well. Definitely a boom or bust candidate. But for me, personally, again, going robust RBs, what I implement in my 16-round draft solution, I’m staying away.
I’m noticing a lot of people are starting to implement the robust RB. There’s a lot of copycats out there that are saying, this is the way to go, which is something that people laughed at me years ago about. Well, why? You’ve got to go zero RB. Whoever invented zero RBs is an idiot. Okay? There’s only a handful of running backs that have minimal committees. I’m telling you, you’ve got to load up early. Deandre Hopkins is a guy that’s going to boom or bust.
4. Mike Evans
Coming in at number four, I’m going to give you a bonus here. There are two guys at number four, Mike Evans and Godwin. I’ve talked about this. Both of these guys could either boom or bust or one of them could really boom because I don’t see enough targets to go around to make them both boom. The con-sheep-sus, the mainstream consensus rankings, have both of these guys in the top-10 because they’re confused because Godwin finished second last year in PPR with 120 targets, 86 receptions, nine touchdowns, and 1,333 yards. Phenomenal numbers. But he had a different quarterback throwing to him. Now with Brady there, Brady could gravitate to him because he threw to Edelman quite often. I think he threw Edelman about 150 times. When I look at Edelman, I’m thinking, okay, maybe Godwin is the next Edelman. But only one guy will emerge. That’s the thing when I look at these guys, one guy will emerge. Is it going to be Evans? Is it going to be Godwin? I don’t know. Edelman 153 targets, 100 receptions for six touchdowns receiving over 1,000 yards, over 1100 yards.
I’m looking at it like, to me, Brady gravitates to one person. Who’s it going to be? Both these guys are boom or bust candidates. In a 12-person league, they’re coming off, respectively, Godwin in the second round, Evans in the third round. Again, the con-sheep-sus are confused because Evans is pretty much a wider receiver one. It’s like, we’ve got to put him in the top-10 because he’s a wide receiver one, but we can’t take Godwin out because he finished second in PPR last year. They’re confused. If there’s this much confusion, not only with them, but for me specifically, because I’m confused as to who’s going to be the guy, because we have not seen that rapport with any of these receivers and Brady. We don’t know what we’re getting into. We know Gronkowski is there. We know Keshawn Vaughan was acquired in the NFL draft. We know RoJo’s there. They catch the ball out of the backfield, because James White caught the ball out the backfield, 95 targets last year. We don’t know. Right? If you don’t know why risk a second-round pick overall over a guy you don’t know about. Draft a running back in this position, you’re going to be a lot safer.
5. Drew Lock
Another boom or bust here at a number five is Drew Lock. I think this is the one guy I think could actually boom. I got him here, he’s more of a late-round guy. Pretty much going completely undrafted in a lot of leagues, but always get a backup with your quarterbacks. Drew. Lock’s a guy that could absolutely boom this year. Watched him in college, met him personally, met his agent. They’re confident. I know they’re confident in him. Obviously the Broncos are as well. They put a lot of tools around him, including the top NFL wide receiver prospect in Jerry Jeudy. They’ve got Hamler, they acquired as well. They’ve got Melvin Gordon to catch the ball out of the backfield. They’ve got Courtland Sutton. They’ve got Noah Fant who can catch the ball as a tight end. This guy is locked and loaded. I like Drew Lock as a potential boom. But again, like anything he’s going to be busting, potentially anything that could boom could bust. With a lot of upside comes a lot of risks. But the thing about Drew Lock is you can get him super late, pretty much for free, and have that major upside. Get him as a backup quarterback, I think you’ll be a happy person.
6. Kenyan Drake
Number six here, total boom or bust. I’m thinking a little bit leaning towards bust, but a lot of uncertainty around this guy. The guy I’m talking about is Kenyan Drake, who’s currently sitting 11th on the con-sheep-sus rankings. He’s up there, man. He’s coming off early second round. Now the thing about him that I don’t trust is the years to why I mean I’m not wowed. I looked at his games. Now his entire career, honestly, he’s had like six fantasy worthy games over 20 points, give or take one or two games. Literally, he came alive in week nine last year with the Cardinals, week 15 to week 16. That’s it. You’re going on a three-game boom-type kind of performance. Typically, I like running backs that come off near the end of the season and come on strong. David Johnson did it in 2015, came on strong. Noticed him, picked him up. Boomed in 2016. We saw it with Gurley coming on. We saw it with other guys last. Derek Henry, the year before last, this past year, he was coming off near the end of the 2018 season, going off. You saw that forward momentum. Again, a similar type of situation here, but I think he’s going to be the fool’s gold. I think he’s going to be the Damian Williams of 2020. You got to be careful here. Years to wow us, we’re not wowed. We know the Cardinals have zero integrity in starting running backs. They don’t care about their running backs. Look what they did to David Johnson. I think David Johnson’s going to absolutely destroy Kenyan Drake in fantasy points this year being on the Texans, but that’s beside the fact. Drake is a huge boom or bust here. I’m leaning a little bit towards the bust. You get him in the second round. If you absolutely love the Cardinals, if you absolutely want him, I can’t discourage you from getting him, because again, I see the ceiling here, for sure. But you’re looking at a guy who was drafted, another guy who was drafted on the Cardinals in the seventh round, who may or may not make the team, in Eno Benjamin out of Arizona state. They’ve got him, they’ve got Edmonds there. They’re going to line up four wide. Hopkins. They’ve got a lot of weapons and Kyler likes to run the ball on his feet. Kenyan Drake, be cautious here. I’m leaning a little bit towards bust. Don’t buy him. I’m personally not.
7. Miles Sanders
Next guy here I think there’s a more of a boom, but be cautious. The guy I’m talking about, number seven, it’s Miles Sanders. Love the talent. I love the work ethic. Love the upside. Hate the team. The problem here with Miles Sanders is, by the time you see this, the end of June here, they were looking at and flirting with Freeman, Devonte, Freeman. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I don’t know if they’re going to bring in somebody else. But look at what the Patriots did with Cam Newton. Cam Newton now acquired by the Patriots. They waited, waited for the free agency, everything fizzled out. They picked up Cam Newton for pretty much cheap compared to what they could have got him for. Buy low, sell high on him. This could be the same thing with the Eagles. They do want another guy in the committee with Sanders. If Sanders is left alone, he could get a workload because, near the end of the season, he started to really turn it up after week 13. In regards to attempts, he finish 50th in PPR amongst running backs. If he gets the volume, if he’s the main guy and Eagles believes in him, which I don’t think they do as of right now, this guy is a top 10-finisher. If he gets going, gets that volume and attempts, I love the upside. Okay?
8. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Number eight here. Huge boom or bust candidate. Again, leaning towards bust here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Listen, love the talent, love the upside. The Kansas City Chiefs invested an end of the first round, first overall pick for them this year in Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Low center of gravity, strong, great vision, nose for the end zone, can catch the ball out of the backfield, dynamic playmaker, shifty. I love the guy. Okay? The problem is here, Damien Williams is still there. Now Damien Williams is not a guy I see as a threat because he sucks. But the problem is he’s good enough to be a pest in the thorn and in the side of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s going to be a thorn. Okay? Another thing I noticed here in between him and McCoy, mind you, they didn’t play the full season and Williams only had 11 games in this, but they had 212 attempts combined. These are the top two running backs for the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not a lot of attempts, right? With Clyde Edwards-Helaire, if he’s going to succeed, he’s got to catch the ball a lot. In a team that has a lot of targets, will Clyde Edwards-Helaire catch the ball a lot? That is the big question, and I don’t think so, man. I think he’s going to catch the ball, but enough to make him a worthy second-round pick, top-10, top-11 finish where he’s kind of sitting. He’s interested in 16th amongst running backs in the rankings, but he’s coming off mid to late second round. Is he worth a second-round pick when I can get myself a Leonard Fournette, Gurley, guys that are proven, guys that know the offense, guys that have been on a team? Well, not so much Gurley, but guys that have been on a team for a little bit longer that could really succeed.
Now, Gurley, I think he’s going to be integrated. He’s going to be plug-and-play with the Falcons. I think that offense is set. I think he’ll he’ll work just fine. I think he’s got the experience. The arthritis is not an issue. I’d rather have Todd Gurley than Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But then again, we’re going back to that boom or bust conversation. He could be a total boom, but with a boom comes risk. I think he’s going to lean towards the bust. But be cautious. I love the talent, but I don’t know if the situation is ideal in regards to volume. Okay?
9. Odell Beckham JR
Number nine and ten, two wide receivers. Number nine, Odell. Keep it really light with this guy, very simple. Years to wow us, we’re not wowed. Has not made that catch. I think it was five years or six years ago since he had that major catch there that put them on the radar and has done nothing for three years. Honestly, literally nothing. All this over-hype, all this over drafting. But again, I got to say here, this could be a year he could actually boom. But I’m going to stay away. Three years in a row he was drafted in the first round and the mainstream said this guy is going to have a great year. Three years in a row he busted. I can’t trust the guy. I just cannot trust the guy. Stay away from Odell.
10. Juju Smith-Schuster
Number 10 here, JuJu Smith. Another guy could be a boom or bust. Again, Odell is sitting top-10 right now, amongst wide receivers, which is crazy, and JuJu’s sitting 14th. JuJu, not proven to us that he can handle the double coverage, that’s the bottom line. I definitely don’t trust. I’d rather have Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool later instead of investing a third-round pick in JuJu, or even O’Dell. Third-round pick. Mind you, Odell’s better value than he has been in the past three years, still going to stay away from that situation. But another situation with JuJu and Odell, it could be a total boom year. Are you willing to invest in a third-round pick? That’s the question mark. To me, I’m grabbing another running back. Okay? I’m loading up on that position. I’m getting David Johnson, a guy that I know is guaranteed that workload. I know he’s going to be efficient. I know he’s going to succeed.
It’s up to you guys, whatever your preference is. That’s what makes fantasy football so exciting. You got to make a decision and it’s all up to you. But I’m laying it out to you, these guys could totally, totally bust or totally boom. I see the ceiling. Some of these guys go off. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be top-five. Who knows? Drake could be injured by the second week. We don’t know. Okay? All I’m doing is laying out the facts for you and telling you, warning, red flags. There’s a ton of them for all these guys. Okay? Kenyan Drake, years to wow us, we’re not wowed. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt outscoring him six out of the eight weeks. Tyreek Hill only finishing top-three once in the past four years. Be cautious because these are all important facts and statistics you’ve got to take into consideration if you consider drafting any of these guys. Okay? Be cautious. All right?
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