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Is Chrisitan McCaffrey worth a 1st overall pick in fantasy football 2020? The Counselor dives into all the facts and lets you know someone who could surpass him. (Audio Transcription)
Welcome to the show everybody. Joseph Robert, the Fantasy Football Counselor. Today we’re talking about Christian McCaffrey and his fantasy football impact for 2020. Now I know what you’re saying, Joe, it’s pretty obvious, he’s a first overall pick amongst every other player in the NFL for Fantasy Football, 2020. Yes. It seems blatantly obvious that he is a first overall pick, but I’m going to dive in and let you know exactly the facts on this one. Should you draft him first overall, should you buy into the mainstream consensus telling you to draft him first overall, and where should you draft him, should you draft him? Is there going to be a decline? I’m going to dive in their guys, give you guys all the facts. That’s what I’m doing in the Impact series. I’m taking the extra time to go through every player that’s fantasy relevant and tell you, should you draft them and dive into the hardcore facts.
Okay, because you got to look at history guys. You can’t just copy and paste last year’s record to say, “Hey, this guy finished on top, got a draft him again.” So it’s very important that we dive into this. So before we get into that guys, I’m taking a lot of time to make this happen for you, I would appreciate if you guys just smash that thumbs up. I generally appreciate that. And of course, if you want to dominate Fantasy Football, not just win your leagues, but crush your leagues, head on over to thefantasyfootballcounselor.com or get the 16 Round Draft Solution below. There is a link here on YouTube as well. And of course, follow my audio. There’s an audio link below. If you guys are watching on YouTube to get this on audio as well. If you’re listening in the car, obviously go to YouTube and you can get a visual aspect of this on YouTube as well, okay.
So the impact series. I want to dive into this and I specifically want to dive into Christian McCaffrey. He is the most hyped-up player in Fantasy Football history. Pretty much as of late anyway. Understandably so, okay. So at the end of these videos I always give you my verdict in regards to whether you should draft him, should not, where you should draft him, is there someone else you should draft ahead of him now? Now I just did a Saquon Barkley One Impact Series video. And you know, I think Saquon’s ceiling is higher, so I’m going to dive into all of this, okay.
Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Numbers
Let’s start off with Christian McCaffrey and let’s go over the facts. Last year, I mean, it was historical. I mean, just a historical season, 471.2 PPR fantasy points. I mean that is phenomenal. 1,387 yards on the ground, 15 touchdowns. He was fourth in rushing attempts. So I tell you this all the time when I am looking at a running back or a wide receiver, I look at volume and he was crushing it in regards to volume, okay. 287 attempts. That is a very big perk. We know he’s like the golden boy of Fantasy Football right now, okay. Amazing year. But here’s the thing. I want to note this out here, okay. 141 targets for 116 receptions. He had more receptions than DeAndre Hopkins, okay. You need to know this and you need to understand this. He had more receptions than every other wide receiver in the NFL, except for Michael Thomas. Can you believe that? That’s insane and he’s a running back. Just let me remind you that, okay. Now you got 1,004 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns, and 116 receptions.
In 2018, he also had a good year. 385 PPR fantasy points. Only second to Saquon Barkley, but not by much as like 0.2 or 0.3 Points or something like that. Going into 2020, now we’ve got to look at the entire situation, okay. Now they just hired a new head coach there, Matt Rhule. It’s a different coach, okay. New head coach. That’s going to be a different offense. I don’t care anyway you slice it or dice it. There’s going to be some differences in the coaching. That’s number one. Number two, Teddy Bridgewater, new quarterback. Quarterback, guys, news alert, the quarterback is pretty much the focal point of that offense. Any offense. He is what helps drive that offense. So now they’ve got new coaching, they’ve got a new quarterback. They’ve also added Robby Anderson.
My assumption is that they’re going to probably want to throw the ball a lot more and I’m not going to say that Christian McCaffrey is going to completely fall off the planet. I’m not going to say that. He fits my Cuddy System. He’s consistent. He’s got upside, he’s got durability, he’s got everything, okay. But what I am telling you is that a decline is imminent and I know that seems blatantly obvious and I get it. But the big question is, how much of a decline, right? That’s the big question. Another question is, is there somebody that could come in, a Saquon Barkley, a Derrick Henry, maybe even a David Johnson? I know that sounds crazy, but it’s very possible. Is there another running back that could come in and put up more points than Saquon, then Christian McCaffrey. That’s the big question. So when I look at the situation, I look at what goes up must come down. I also look at the facts and I look at the history and I see that Priest Holmes was the last time, the last running back that finished two years ago on top amongst running backs, like in their respective position.
So Priest Holmes finished on top in 2002 and in 2003, he was a top finishing fantasy point scorer at the running back position. So this hasn’t happened since 2003. Guys we are in 2020 right now, so that’s like what, like 17, 18 years ago. So when you look at the facts and you look at the situation, you got to say, okay, man, this is very, it’s not probable that CMC finishes on top. And this is another very important fact. When I’m drafting any player, any player first overall, my assumption, and my mission is that they finish first overall. So I’m not going to draft a guy like Christian McCaffrey and say, “Oh, go and draft him first overall and then he finishes third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh.”
I’m aiming to get that grand slam, home run guy if I’m drafting first overall. And I believe that’s going to be Saquon Barkley and I’ll tell you why. Improved o-line, Daniel Jones’ back in the groove and then Saquon actually finished the season really, really strong, okay. They’ve added Andrew Thomas, they’ve added Matt Peart on the o-line. They even got a guard, Shane Lemieux in the fifth round. So they got a first-round, a third-round, and a fifth-rounder improving that o-line. That was a big focal point of the NFL draft for the New York Giants. Saquon Barkley came on strong. He had again, go watch the impact series of Saquon, but he had a phenomenal week, 16 with 43.9 PPR fantasy points and a week 15 with 30 plus points. So he finished strong the same way that David Johnson finished strong back in 2015 and had a great 2016 season.
The same way that Derrick Henry finished strong at the end of 2018 had a phenomenal 2019 season. I’m telling you guys, I think the ceiling is higher for Saquon. Maybe even Derrick Henry. I still think there’s a ceiling with Derrick Henry, right? The thing was CMC is that he has hit his pinnacle. There’s no way, there is no way, I’m willing to bet the house on this. There is no way that Christian McCaffrey, I want to repeat this. There’s no way that he’s going to finish with that many points yet again. And that’s obvious. Well Joe, 471. What if he finished with 450? That’s still good. He’s still worth a first overall pick. I understand that, but I still think no matter what under any circumstance, Saquon Barkley’s ceiling is higher than Christian McCaffrey because there is still room to grow, okay. There’s still room to grow. There’s still room to adapt. And there’s a higher ceiling.
2020 Projection for Christian McCaffrey
With Christian McCaffrey, he’s peaked and hit his ceiling. He’s on his way back down. Saquon still has room and maybe he’ll get 500 fantasy points, Saquon, that’s the ceiling here, right? So the point I’m trying to make here, let’s talk about the verdict here with Christian McCaffrey. So if you’re looking at the first overall pick, I’m going Saquon. I’m just going to do that. Then I’m going Derrick Henry and then I may look at Christian McCaffrey. The only reason you may go Christian McCaffrey first is that you can get pretty much any player on the board. You can use them as trade bait right off the bat if your league allows you to trade early on, okay. That’s the only way I go Christian McCaffrey, but I’m sensing a pretty significant decline, new coaching, new quarterback, and of course the addition of Robby Anderson. I think they’re just going to throw the ball more this year and they have to, and I talk about this. Think of it as a chess game, right? You can’t use the same chess piece and try to win the game. You know, defenses are going to catch on and they probably caught on last year. And that’s another thing. They’ve got all this tape on him, right? So when you look at Christian McCaffrey when you’re looking at the verdict, you got to say to yourself, you know what? This guy had a pinnacle year, he hit a ceiling, and there’s got to be somebody else that could surpass Christian McCaffrey and that’s up to you to find that.
Now, I also want to talk about a Fantasy Football draft strategy here, whenever you’re going first overall or anybody for the first round, you’ve got to have a full strategy. And this is what I talk about in the 16 Round Draft Solution, okay? So that’s what I make sure you guys get it at thefantasyfootballcounselor.com. But I want to emphasize something, so no matter who you get, whether it be Zeke, or whether it be Saquon, or whether it be Christian McCaffrey, or Jacobs, or whoever you get in the first round, you always got to go robust RB. And I want to implore you guys to implement this strategy and I’ll tell you why. Because first-round guys, believe it or not, fall off. And that’s just the bottom line. It happens. They fall off and they get hurt. Things happen and they don’t produce. Like last year, everybody said Le’Veon Bell first round. I said stay away from Bell. He’s not on Steelers, guys. Hold back a little bit, right? Pump the brakes on this.
Yet everybody in the mainstream was telling you draft Le’ Veon Bell first round. Same thing with Odell. Three years busted in a row, right? So there are guys in the first round that fall, but I don’t even look at wide receiver in the first round. I look at robust RB. What is robust RB? Acquiring as many running backs in the first three to four rounds that are minimal committee and load up at that position early. Because I’m telling ya, if you don’t load up on running backs early, your running backs are going to be very scarce. I keep using Jordan Howard and Phillip Lindsay as an example. But that’s what you’re looking at in the fifth, sixth round. Now you can get some value. There are some value picks like David Montgomery in the fifth round, but I mean, it’s very rare. So you need to load up on these guys and you need to load up on them early.
Should you draft him for 2020 fantasy football?
So, final thoughts on Christian McCaffrey. Yes, I love him. Yes, he fits the Cuddy. If you guys don’t know what the Cuddy is: consistency, upside, durability, depth, youth. He has it all. But it’s not just copying and pasting last year’s and say, “Hey, these guys finished on top last year, we got to draft them again this year.” It’s not like that, okay? You’ve got to look at the entire situation. You’ve got to look at what goes up must what comes down, right? You’ve got to look at the variables, you’ve got to look at the coaching, you’ve got to look at the quarterback, you’ve got to look at the offense, you’ve got to look at the defense, you’ve got to look at the entire scope of things, okay? So historically speaking, and I want to repeat this, okay. Historically speaking on paper, it’s very, very rare that Christian McCaffrey has another pinnacle year of finishes on top amongst running backs.
I want to tell you that again and I want to implore that to you. And again, the 116 receptions, that is absolutely insane. I mean more than every other wide receiver, except for Michael Thomas, that’s crazy. And then 141 targets. Will Bridgewater target him 141 times? It’s going to be very interesting, man. I’m really interested to see how this goes for him. And I know you guys said, well, Derrick Henry. How can you have Derrick Henry had him, he doesn’t catch the ball. Well, Derrick Henry, if he rushes for like 20 touchdowns, right, and he’s a focal point of that offense and for like 1600 yards, right? I mean, that’s going to make up for any receptions he’s losing, right? because then that’s where I usually talk and the guys at one point PPR, okay.
So final thoughts on this. Christian McCaffrey, yes they’re going to tell you first overall, but I’m not going to do it personally. And no matter what happens, I’m going to back myself up with that robust RB strategy, which I talk about in the 16 Round Draft Solution. Get it below.
All right guys, thank you for being here, guys. Leave a comment below. Are you drafting Christian McCaffrey first overall? I’m certainly not. Let me know your comments. Smash the thumbs up and of course guys, I left a link for the Impact too so you can get all the information on every other player so that you guys are well versed and you guys know everything about every player, right? All right guys. Thanks for being here. And I am out.
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