We are talking about Alvin Kamara’s fantasy football impact as part of the Fantasy Football Impact Series that I’ve created breaking down every individual player and whether or not you should draft them for fantasy football 2022. Big episode here, honing in focused on Alvin Kamara, who’s currently sitting top 10 on the consensus rankings. So a lot of people will be drafting him, should you? That’s the big question. I’m going to answer that with a deep dive here today.
So there’s a ton of stuff guys, and everything I offer, I offer value, okay? So let’s dive into Alvin Kamara right now. Now the big question is should you draft Alvin Kamara going into 2022, quick answer to that, I’ll answer that at the end. But I want to deep dive in regards to what I think about Alvin Kamara for fantasy football 2022. Now I am recording this relatively early in the offseason, we’re recording this in March. So things may change, but I feel that I’ve seen enough Alvin Kamara to know what to expect and what to not expect, right?
So here’s the thing that turns me off. I’m going to read the news headline here, going back to February, all right? New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara was arrested in Las Vegas following the Pro Bowl. Las Vegas Police Department is charging Alvin Kamara with battery resulting in substantial bodily harm. The incident reportedly occurred at a nightclub on February 5th, which was the day before Alvin Kamara participated in the Pro Bowl. So he was arrested. I believe he was charged. I just saw a recent post a few days ago March 2nd, the time is… the recording’s March 4th. A couple of days ago on his Instagram… he has me blocked, so I had to check from another account because I want to check the news. Not that I’m creeping him out, but I just wanted to check. So I had to use another account to check, but Alvin Kamara had me blocked. I’ve never said anything bad about him. I may have said something along the line before that he sucks, maybe something he had a bad game or something.
But at the end of the day, here’s the thing. I don’t like the fact that he’s been arrested and this is not something I expect out of Alvin Kamara, maybe out of another player, but not Alvin Kamara. I did not expect this out of him. I was shocked when I read the headline. And that shows to me like where’s your head at? Where’s your head at? You are a professional athlete. One of the top running backs in the game, physically gifted and talented. Why are you out there fighting people at a bar or nightclub? Whatever happened. Now, maybe something was said to him that was probably a cause for him to do something. But you got to understand you’re in the NFL, you’ve got a reputation to protect. You just can’t be doing that. So we’re talking the whole scope and you got to analyze off-field and off-season issues because that’s really going to potentially impact him for reality because this is a guy you want to invest on your fantasy team. You are a shareholder of that player. So what they do off-field matters.
So I have to address this and it’s something that really genuinely bothered me about Alvin Kamara. Didn’t expect it out of him, out of all people being the top athlete that he is and the work ethic really looked like second to none. We’ve seen his training videos in the past looked amazing. So that’s something I want to put in the back of your head when you’re considering drafting him. I definitely am. He’s going into his sixth season. And if you look at his target count from 2017 to 2020 solid targets, the lowest amount of targets he had through 2017 to 2020 was 97 targets. There was a significant drop-off in 2021. We had a full year without Drew Brees, no Drew Brees in the picture, the disaster at quarterback and we saw his numbers decline.
Now his rushing attempts did actually go up to 240. He didn’t really do much with them, with 3.7 yards per carry on average and four rushing touchdowns, not impressive at all. Only 891 rushing yards. So he is not a pure rusher. He’s not your Nick Chubb. He’s not going to get you Derrick Henry rushing numbers, he’s not going to get you those rushing yards. So he makes that up with the receptions, which again, he went down in receptions with 47 receptions, 67 targets, 47 receptions is about almost just about half of what he had in 2020 with 83 receptions. He’s an 80 reception type of guy. 81 receptions in 2017, 81 receptions 2018, 81 receptions in 2019 and 83 receptions in 2020. And then 2021, we have a significant decline. So that’s something to definitely be concerned about. Last year’s numbers game to game, not impressive.
He had a couple of games where he was an absolute dud including week 15 week 16 weeks, and week two he crapped the bed and the other games were pretty good, pretty average. So overall he had himself a good season last year, not to Alvin Kamara’s standards, by any sense of the word. And when I look at a running back, I want to make sure that I’m consistent. And he wasn’t that last year, mind you finish eighth amongst running backs, which isn’t bad. What carried them is those attempts and again, he had the five receiving touchdowns, which wasn’t bad. So when you’re looking at Alvin Kamara, he’s going to be sitting around 10th amongst running backs. So the big question is, do you draft him? He’s probably going to be a second-round pick for you guys if you want to consider him. And it depends on who your RB1 is.
And the thing about it is, again, it really turns me off is the fact that Drew Brees is not there. The guy that fed him the ball a lot. When you’re looking at the quarterbacks, they had Jameis Winston who got hurt, who’s probably coming back. They got Taysom Hill who again, is a guy that’s going to hoard away those rushing touchdowns. We saw it last year. Taysom Hill had… what did he have? Five rushing touchdowns that could have gone to Alvin Kamara. So Taysom Hill is there. They have Trevor Siemian, Ian Book was there. It’s a bit of a disaster there at quarterback, okay? So I don’t know if I trust Jameis Winston as a guy that will feed Kamara consistently. Maybe he will. I don’t know, but at the end of the day, here’s the deal, because the quarterback situation I don’t trust, it’s all over the place, especially with Taysom Hill stealing away those rushing touchdowns.
And then you got Michael Thomas possibly. I think he’s coming back. I haven’t looked at the exact situation, but Michael Thomas could be coming back stronger than ever. I’m just going to pull up here Michael Thomas news as we’re talking. I haven’t looked at his news at all. Let’s see if there’s anything here that’s trending. Apparently, he’s supposed to be… Saints GM saying Michael Thomas is back and healthy. He’s supposed to be back. So that’s going to get a lot of… it could open things up for Alvin Kamara. It could in fact also deter some of those receptions as well, because more receptions are going to go Michael Thomas’ way. You know, here’s a deal, sixth season, I saw a decline and if you ask me if I’m going to be drafting him, I am turned off about the off-field issue. And again, I saw his Instagram he’s back, he’s modeling.
So I’m assuming the lawyers took care of whatever issue Alvin Kamara is dealing with. But I have a problem with that. I don’t know what it is. I really do. I like the guys that are clear-minded, clear-headed. Your clean guys, Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, guys that are on the field producing on a high level still, Derrick Henry, he’s more of a veteran now, but young dynamic Javonte Williams excites me more than Alvin Kamara, right? So for me, he’s not the guy I’m going to be looking at. And again, I like a guy that gets it done all around, tons of volume. Doesn’t have to rely on a pure rusher that runs with him, whereas Alvin Kamara’s not a pure rusher. He’s just not, he’s more of a receiving scat kind of back with upside because he had those receptions, which we saw a decline last year.
So here’s the verdict for me. I don’t know what you guys want to do. Here’s what I’m going to do. I’m just going to fade him this year. I’m just going to fade him. There are just too many question marks, too many questions at quarterback, too many question marks for the off-field issue, now that’s in play. Too many questions Michael Thomas, coming back, how that’s going to be, right? How that’s going to integrate into the situation. Is that going to help him? Is it is not going to help him, right?
When I look at other guys, I look at let’s say, Javonte Williams, let’s say without Melvin Gordon there, Melvin Gordon’s still there at the time of this recording, hopefully, he gets shipped off. I look at Najee Harris, I look at Johnathon Taylor, Derrick Henry, there’s only a handful of those guys. I like those types of running backs or running backs that could be that type of running back. So I would draft essentially a rookie that could be that or a sleeper like Michael Carter, who could be that workhorse back that doesn’t have to rely on a Mark Ingram to make him complete, right? Or to fill things out.
So for me, the verdict is this, I’m going to be fading Alvin Kamara. I went over the stats with you. We saw the regression and all the points pointing to a total fade for Alvin Kamara for me. And I could be wrong. He can come out and be the Alvin Kamara from three years ago, but there with no Brees there and just way too many question marks for me. I’m fading Alvin Kamara and that’s Alvin Kamara’s fantasy football outlook for me guys. That’s straight-up. If you guys want all the sleepers, all the breakups, everything guys get the 16 Round Draft solution. I have linked it below guys. Make sure you guys are subscribed to this number one fantasy football podcast. And of course, guys, leave a comment below. Are you drafting Alvin Kamara? If you’re watching on YouTube, are you drafting him this season based on what I said? Love to get your feedback guys. Subscribe, thumbs up and fantasy football 2022 will be here before we know it. I’m out.
Watch the Full Video Here: https://youtu.be/-92VqtH6DzU