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Michael Thomas Fantasy Impact for 2020. The Counselor lets you know if Thomas is worth that early round 1 pick! ( Audio Transcription)
Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert with the Fantasy Football Counselor. Today we’re talking about Michael Thomas and his fantasy football impact for 2020 and his outlook. Guys, very important episode here, because if you want Michael Thomas, the stud wide receiver from last year, on your fantasy football team this year you’re going to have to pay a hefty price. And we’re talking, what, top five, top-eight pick at least if you want him in a 12-person league. Very, very expensive. So I’m going to break down my outlook, my projection, and at the end of the video obviously my verdict on what I think. Should you draft him? Should you not draft him? How is he going to do? What we project this year. What my thoughts are. Everything you need here for Michael Thomas.
And of course, guys, the impact series. There is a link below to get a video of all the other guys that are really fantasy relevant in the early rounds. I started off with running backs. Now I’m branching off into the wide receivers to give you guys that full perspective so you guys make the proper, educated decision to put these guys on your roster.
And also, I’m going to show you guys a sneak peek. If you guys have seen it in my other videos, I’m going to show you again. Check out this sneak peek, 15-second trailer. There you have it, guys: a quick sneak peek at what to expect here. It’s a teaser, guys. But again, beyond excited. Make sure you’re following Fan To Fan everywhere on social media. Okay?
Michael Thomas Stats
Let’s get into Michael Thomas here. Let’s dive right in, his fantasy impact. Listen, this guy came out in 2016, had a good year, 255 PPR fantasy points, has been consistent every year, averaging… He always finishes around sixth to seventh throughout the years that he played, the three years that he played. Always sixth to seventh is where he finishes all the time. Okay? Now his max… And again, he had a pinnacle year in 2019. You need to be aware of that. Now again, the mainstream, the consensus rankings always tell you that you’ve got to… He finished well this year, you’ve got to draft him again in that same order. So obviously he’s the number one wide receiver, predicated on last year. We had some political stuff happen with him and Drew Brees we won’t get into. I don’t know if that’s going to ruin their chemistry that much. I guess they’ve worked it out. They have solved that problem. It may probably not be a factor with that. And if you guys don’t know what that’s about, you’re probably living under a rock. Drew Brees said some stuff, some controversial stuff. Kind of blew up on social. May have offended Michael Thomas, may not have, but Michael Thomas apparently has now forgiven him. Let’s put that aside. Let’s say that that’s not going to be a factor. Okay? Let’s talk hard-core stats.
Now, his targets have been going up every single year. 92 receptions 2016, 104, 125 in 2018, and then 149, so it keeps escalating. Now, when it to 92 to 104, that’s reasonable, from 2016 to 2017. Then from 2017 to 2018, 104 to 125, that’s a nice little jump. But then like a hockey stick growth from 2018 to 2019, 125 to 149 in regards to targets, and his receptions went from 147 to 185. 185 receptions. That’s massive. The receiver only next to him, I think it was Hopkins, had 104 receptions. So a big jump from that, 149 to 104 to the receiver below him.
Now understand, Michael Thomas will probably put up another 120 receptions going into 2020, but this pinnacle of 149 receptions on 185 targets, that is massive, and I just don’t see that happening again. 185 targets, that’s a lot of targets. Understand, guys, this year, I don’t know if they’re going to implement Kamara more. Kamara… again, Drew Brees was hurt last season. There’s a lot of question marks here and there. But the point I’m trying to make is, when you have a guy have such a good year, another guy, CMC… What goes up must come down. There’s no way he’s going to get 185 targets. I just don’t see it. I don’t see it at all. This was a record year in the past I don’t know how many years that a receiver has ever done this. So I’m going to go back quickly and look, and I’m going to filter here by targets because we’re talking 185 targets. Julio in 2018 maxed out… He was the number one in targets… 170. Okay? I’m going to keep going here. We’re going to go to 2017, just to give you an idea. Okay? Hopkins, who had a great year with 309 PPR fantasy points in 2017, topped out at 174 targets. Okay? Now let’s go to 2016. I’m going to pull up the targets. 173 targets that season was number in 2016 with Mike Evans. So you guys see the pattern here? 175 is a really, really pinnacle year for guys that had top fantasy years the past couple years. Now, Michael Thomas even topped those guys significantly with 185 targets, so I look at that situation and I ask myself… Man, that’s a pinnacle year. 
Now, where is he being drafted for 2020 fantasy football? He’s being drafted very early. He’s being drafted top eight picks, so that means you’ve got to invest an early pick in him, and you’ve got to make a decision: do I want Michael Thomas, or do I want Josh Jacobs? Do I want Michael Thomas or do I want a Todd Gurley or someone like that late first round? Michael Thomas is coming off sometimes even before Derrick Henry, which is crazy because Derrick Henry is a full workhorse running back, which is absolutely insane to me. My mind doesn’t wrap around it. So when we look at the stats, you look at him having such a pinnacle year, you’ve got to ask yourself, “Is that going to continue? Will that continue on for 2020?” And I’m going to say he’s going to be solid. There’s no doubt about it. He’s a beast. But the nine touchdowns, right? The 1,725 yards. This is massive. 1,725 receiving yards on 149 receptions, nine touchdowns. That’s crazy. You know how hard that is to duplicate again, back to back? So there’s going to be a definite decline. Is he going to be declining out of wide receiver one contention? Possibly. But I tell you guys, and I keep preaching this: you’ve got to go robust RB for fantasy football 2020. That’s just the way you have to roll. Go with the robust RB strategy. It’s definitely, definitely going to help you because that is a scarce position. You need to load up on those running backs early. It’s just a fact. It’s just a fact. There’s a ton of depth at wide receiver. Are they going to perform with Michael Thomas numbers? These guys you get in the fourth, fifth round, these wide receivers? Possibly. There’s a ton of guys, a ton of great talent at wide receiver that could emerge. Now, Michael Thomas is as safe as it gets, but again, what goes up must come down.
2020 Projection
Let me give you the verdict here on whether I’m going to draft him. I’m going to make it very simple for you guys. No, I’m not going to draft Michael Thomas, because I’m too busy drafting running backs. Is that to say that Michael Thomas will bust? No. Is that to say that you’re making a mistake if you go Michael Thomas first overall? No, not necessarily, because you could technically still get Michael Thomas and he has a year that’s slightly below where he finished here. So, 374.6 PPR fantasy points. Let’s say he finishes with 315 PPR fantasy points. You’re still getting good value in the first round. But you’ve got to ensure that you still get solid running backs coming back around. Okay? So let’s just say you go, Thomas, you come back around. Let’s say you manage to get Gurley. You come back around. Let’s say that you get Fournette. Then David Johnson may be gone because David Johnson’s ADP is rising. Then you’re looking at a guy like Montgomery, a Cam Akers, the Jordan Howards, the Phillip Lindsays of the world, guys that are in question mark if you wait till the fourth, fifth round. Okay? Guys that are still going to be in a relatively not so big committee, but you’re going to have to deal with other mouths to feed and question marks. D’Andre Swift could have a major breakout season, but the problem is, with Swift, is that he’s got Kerryon there. Cam Akers could have a breakout season, but the Rams are saying they’re going to go by committee. Right? You’ve got Darrell Henderson there. There are a couple of other guys that could break out, right? And I talk about all this in my 16 Round draft solution. You’ve got to make sure you draft the right players.
But going back to Michael Thomas, personally I think Davante Adams surpasses him this year. I think Davante Adams plays a healthy season, surpasses him. I think a Kenny Golladay, a healthy Kenny Golladay could surpass him with… He and a healthy Matt Stafford, I should say, could surpass him. Right? Julio Jones could surpass him. Chris Godwin could be the primary receiver for Tom Brady and they go off, have a pinnacle year. Chris Godwin could surpass him. Cooper Kupp could… You never know. Right? Mike Evans could have a breakout year. Allen Robinson could have a breakout year. Anyone of these guys could have this amazing year. Courtland Sutton and Drew Lock could be the best connection since sliced bread and peanut butter and jelly. Right? You never know. So when I’m looking at Michael Thomas, I ask myself, “Is he going to have the same type of year?” And the answer to that is very simple: no. There’s going to be a decline. So that tells you right there, his ADP is too expensive. Right off the bat. Okay? He’s being overpriced based on last year’s stats. Be careful there. Okay? And then I ask myself, “Do I need a workhorse running back?” Sure, I’d rather have a Derrick Henry there. I’d rather have a full workhorse running back there instead of drafting a wide receiver in the first round. It’s that simple, guys. Don’t overcomplicate it.
Go with the robust RB strategy. There’s a ton of depth at wide receiver, I assure you. Diggs. You can get him in the fourth round. There are Cooks that’s… He’s coming off a sixth, seventh round. You can get him. Wide receiver [inaudible 00:10:55]. McLaurin. Chark. There’s no much talent. T. Y. Hilton. There are sleepers like Diontae Johnson. Again, I talk about all this in the 16 Round draft solution. The point I’m trying to make is, there’s a ton of depth at wide receiver. You can wait. And I’m going to pass, predicated on the fact that it’s too expensive in the first round and that decline is imminent for Michael Thomas. Stay away. That’s the verdict. Okay?
That’s it, guys. Make sure you guys smash the thumbs up. Leave a comment below with your fantasy questions. I’ll see you guys in the next video. And check out the impact series below. I appreciate you guys being here and make sure you guys are following Fan To Fan Network. The takeover is happening. Thanks for being here, guys. I’m out.
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