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Todd Gurley Fantasy Football Impact 2020. The Counselor breaks down the outlook and impact of Gurley and when you should consider drafting him. ( Audio Transcription)
Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert, the Fantasy Football Counselor. Today, we’re talking about Todd Gurley and his fantasy football impact and that look going into 2020. I’m super excited about fantasy football coming up, guys. I cannot express to you how excited I am for sports coming up. The NFL coming back, watching some football and getting back into fantasy football, beyond excited. And today, I’m going to talk about Todd Gurley because I keep getting asked about Todd Gurley. A lot of questions about Todd Gurley. Is he going to break out this year? Is he going to come back to form? Is arthritis going to affect him? How’s that going to work out? Do the Falcons believe in him? Are they going to work him as a workhorse running back? I got all the answers, to the best of my ability. I try to do it in about 10 to 15 minutes, to give you guys that value and give you guys all the information I can, statistically and positionally, like where they sit positional-wise on their team, their roster, the depth chart.
Todd Gurley Stats
All right. So let’s talk about Todd Gurley and his fantasy impact. Last year, I want to make a note here. So he’s going to be in some competition if you want to call it that. And there is no competition, literally. Brian Hill, last year, had 78 attempts for 323 yards, two touchdowns. Okay. Brian Hill is supposed to be a competition? They’ve got Ito Smith. I think he’s going to be there. Now, Ito Smith had 22 attempts, just to give you guys the landscape of what Todd Gurley is currently sitting in with Atlanta. Ito Smith is there, right? Brian Hill and Quadree Ollison. Okay. Not real big competition. So combined with Brian Hill and Ito Smith, didn’t even combine for even 100 attempts, right? So I look at volume and I look at attempts. Devonta Freeman, last year, who played 14 games and lately has been showing a bit of a sign of decline. Now, I think Freeman went on records saying he’s not anywhere near retiring. He’s got 10 years left in him. Yeah. Whatever. Listen, the point I’m trying to make is we don’t care about Freeman right now. We actually care about Freeman, where he lands because he could buzzkill maybe a Miles Sanders fantasy value by the time of this recording, which in early June. Freeman’s a free agent, but he could end up and buzzkill a lot of people, but we don’t care about Freeman right now, for Todd Gurley’s case right now. Brian Hills there, Ito Smith, not main competitors. And when I look at drafting, any type of running back, I look at the gap in between them. This is why I’m staying away from Nick Chubb. See, Nick Chubb is here and Kareem Hunt is here. So if you guys are watching on YouTube, if you’re on Spotify, I’m basically leveling out my hands. They’re pretty much on the same level here. Okay. There’s not a big gap between Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. You could debate Nick Chubb’s a better runner, Kareem Hunt’s a better pass catcher. But give Kareem Hunt the same type of volume that you gave to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt will perform, and he was the rushing leader back in 2017.
Some people forget this guy. So don’t forget. So that’s why I stayed with Nick Chubb, especially in the first round. Because I’m telling you, you got Kareem Hunt there, who outscored him six out of the eight games, right? They played together in PPR. When you’re looking at Todd Gurley, there’s a huge gap. Now, if you guys are listening in the car, my hand’s on the floor, the other one’s on the ceiling. Todd Gurley is an elite talent and he’s far superior to Brian Hill, Ito Smith, or anyone else on that roster. And the nice thing is that the Falcons, they signed him for a year, they believe in him, right? The fact of the matter is they’re out to win a Super Bowl this year. That division, I think they’re going to do well in that division.
Matt Ryan out for vengeance this year, had a bad year last year. They are out to destroy. Now, they’ve got arguably the best two receivers in the game with Calvin Ridley and Julio in tandem combined. I would say they are the best receivers in the game. You can make a debate, there are other guys. We won’t get into that. But Julio Jones, I still think is the best receiver in the game. There’s some drama with Drew Brees and all that stuff going on with the Saints right now, which could rupture the rapport with Michael Thomas and Brees. But we’re not going to get into that here right now. We’re talking about Todd Gurley. But I’m talking here about these guys basically distracting defense, opening things up for the passing game for Todd Gurley. Yes, catching the ball in the backfield, opening things up, which could be really exciting for Todd Gurley. Understand, with me, I try to stay away from running backs in different situations, but I feel that with the talent of Gurley, he’s had some time to rest. Now, I think arthritis won’t be a factor. If it is, I mean, he’ll be rested a little bit. Maybe Brian Hill will come in for a couple of things, a couple of plays, maybe on third downs, maybe to help Todd Gurley catch his breath on big runs and stuff like that. So to me, I’m not really concerned. I think the ceiling is high. I think the Falcons are in it to win it. I mean, Matt Ryan’s getting older. They have to win it, right? They have to do something here. Matt Ryan needs to win a Super Bowl here, right near down the stretch of his retirement. I mean, how many years does he have left, right?
Only X amount of years left. So I love the situation. I love the opportunity. The nice thing is the draft was where I was concerned. And they did not acquire another running back. That tells me, all signs point to, “I believe in Todd Gurley.” It’s not like they’re going to pick up Devonta Freeman back as a free agent to put him up. I mean, I could be wrong. Crazier things have happened, right? But I don’t see them bringing Devonta Freeman back to back up Gurley. So I don’t think that’s going to be a factor here. So the way I look at it. Okay. So I’m going to give you guys my verdict. Let’s talk about this real quick. One thing with Todd Gurley’s career also here is that he has these up and down type of years.
He did it in college. He has one good year, one bad year, one good year, one bad year. Now, I understand, back in 2017, he had this huge breakout year. That’s the year I said, “You guys got to get on the Gurley train.” Gurley actually finished number one in PPR that year, 383 points. A huge year for Gurley. You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them. That was the year I was all over Gurley. I had him and I think I actually had Kareem Hunt that same year. I dominated this Experts League. That was the year I took Kareem Hunt, I drafted him, I think, in the third round, prior to the Spencer Ware injury that year. Everyone thought I was nuts. I was in this Experts League, I’m around this big table. It was like, “Why the hell are you going to Kareem Hunt?”
Because I saw the talent, right? So Todd Gurley had this big year. I laid off of him in 2018. He started a good year, finished third. Okay. But I laid off of him because I rode him hard that one year in fantasy, dropped him in a Redraft League, stayed away. Still had a good year in 2018. 2017, arthritis kicked in and he fell off. Sorry, 2019, he fell off, right? The reason Todd Gurley fell off is that the Rams weren’t utilizing him. They thought, “Okay. Well, let’s preserve Todd Gurley. We might not want to run him. Let’s limit his attempts.” Now, going back to last year in 2019, he didn’t see… When did he see? Saw 20 attempts a week. Yeah, he had 25 attempts. Prior to that, he didn’t see anything over 20 attempts. In week 80 at 10 attempts. In week 10, he had 12 attempts. In week four, he had five attempts.
He wasn’t getting the volume he deserved. So the Rams started kicking him up in volume, kicking everything up for him after around week 11. And then you started seeing some fantasy production. And if you actually look at his numbers, I would say, from week 13 and on, he was relatively a consistent producer, right? He had 21.3 points at week 14, 20.8 points at week 15. He was safe and solid near the stretch there. Now, nothing to get excited about. 12 touchdowns on the ground, over 800 yards. What do you have? 857 yards, 3.8 yards per carry on 223 attempts. So the volume wasn’t there. I need my workhorse running back getting at least 250 attempts. I need that volume. I need to see it. I need a consistent production of volume. Now, looking at Todd Gurley for 2020 Fantasy Football, looking at his outlook.
You got to look at volume. Is he going to get volume? Yes. I think he’s going to get a floor of around 250 rushing attempts. Is he going to get the goal-line work? Yes. Is he going to be involved in the passing game? Yes. Do the Falcons believe in him? Yes. Is arthritis going to be a factor? Possibly, but not enough to keep him off the field because they’re going to utilize him. They paid him for the year. They want to utilize them. They want to work with him. He wants to win a Super Bowl. He wants big things, obviously, right? And the guy is extremely talented. Coming off a little bit of a dip year. Momentum is building back up for a big year. Is he going to be back at the 2017 form? Possibly. Why not? The arthritis is there. He’s got the best trainers on the planet helping him.
2020 Projection
He’s doing strength training. I think he’s going to be fine. There’s going to be limitations sometimes, possibly. But here’s the thing. When you’re looking at Fantasy Football draft strategy, implementing Todd Gurley, and if you’re going to draft and when to draft him, listen, in my 16 Round course, get it below or head on over to thefantasyfootballcounselor.com. Guys, do it. I encourage you guys. I employ you guys. Lion mentality to get the 60 Round Draft Solution. I implement a robust RB strategy. So we have a backup plan for our backup plan. So if I do get Gurley in the second round, I’ve got myself a Jacobs, I’ve got myself a Saquon, I got myself a Zeke or a Henry. Then I come back, I swing back, I get Gurley, come back around and I get somebody else, another running back. And part of a robust. I’m comfortable with going four running backs in the first four rounds. And I talk about this in the 16 Round Draft, which is because, reason being, the running backs run really thin. And Todd Gurley is one of those special running backs this year that is not going to be in a community that affects him. We just talked about it. Ito Smith, all those guys, they just did not get the volume. They don’t believe in them. They’re not that elite talent running back. Okay. Todd Gurley is. So Todd Gurley, average draft position, second or third round. If you get him in the third, that is an absolute steal. But I’m taking him mid to late second, love the value and I’m drafting him comfortably and I feel confident in doing it. So the verdict, my verdict on this, it’s very simple. Draft Todd Gurley as part of a robust RB strategy.
He is in a position where he’s at the top of the depth chart. He will succeed. The volumes going to be there. And the Falcons believe in him. It’s very simple, guys. Do not be afraid of arthritis. Do not be afraid. Because again, you’re looking at a guy who is a workhorse and is going to get the volume on his team and has shown us in prior times that he has succeeded and he will succeed this year. And again, knock on wood, I hope he stays healthy, but he pretty much finished an entire season last year. He played the entire season, right? Mind you, he was a little bit limited. How is he going to handle that full workload? Again, that’s the big question mark. But I think he’s going to be fine. And worse comes to worst, you’re basically drafting other workhorse running backs that have no committees as well. You’re not drafting guys in the first round like Nick Chubb who is going to be hoarded out by… Touches are going to be hoarded away by Kareem Hunt. You’re not going to be doing that. You’re going to be getting workhorses and you can cover yourself. Backup plan for a backup plan. I love Todd Gurley for Fantasy Football 2020. Look for an up-trending type a year. Draft him comfortably and confidently as part of a robust RB strategy and you will absolutely be okay. Do not fear arthritis. Again, I could be wrong. He can come out week one, his arthritis hurts. He gets benched. I highly doubt it. The Falcons want to win. I’m going with that. They’re going to work him to maximum capability. They’re going to play their best player and that is Todd Gurley. I can’t imagine him sitting on the bench for a very long time if any.
Let me know. Are you drafting Todd Gurley? Hopefully, you are after listening to this discussion. Make sure you guys subscribe to this number one Fantasy Football podcast. It means the absolute world to me. And there is your Todd Gurley fantasy outlook and impact for 2020. Make sure you guys check out the Impact Series. And of course, guys, get the 16 Round Draft Solution. I assure you guys are going to be very happy with your roster. It’s an unfair advantage over the competition and the absolute game-changer in the Fantasy Football industry. Thank you, guys. Keep the lion mentality and I’ll see you guys next video.
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