- Nick Chubb
- AJ Brown
- Deebo Samuel
- Kyle Pitts
- D’Andre Swift
The first guy here, now I’ve been avoiding this guy for years, and I’ve been telling you to avoid him for years. Last year, busted significantly based on his average draft position. Just years to wow me. I’m not wowed. Well, you can make a debate here, but the guy I’m talking about, first and foremost, is Nick Chubb.
Nick Chubb was drafted early in all drafts last year. When I say early, like the end of the first round. Everybody loved him, the mainstream loved him, and I warned against this guy because every year Kareem Hunt is there. He outperforms him in PPR. Kareem Hunt is the better running back, whether you like to admit it or not, whether the mainstream like to admit it or not.
Now, Nick Chubb is a great pure runner, a pretty good goal-line guy, although last year only eight touchdowns. Now he did have 1,259 yards, and 228 attempts. Now, Kareem Hunt was pretty much banged up last year. I don’t know how many games he played last year. I got to pull it up. But Kareem Hunt actually played, what, eight games last year. Now, Kareem Hunt wasn’t even on the field the entire time, yet Nick Chubb struggled. Now you could say they had quarterback issues or they hadn’t figured out that offense, but they’ve had years to figure out the offense. They’ve had years to show us they could do it. Nick Chubb, again, finished 13th last year in PPR, currently sitting 12th in PPR. How ironic is that? Copy and paste. All of a sudden, he had a bad year. Now he’s not really as loved. He’s still loved and still overrated. Because if you look at him in standard, he’s sitting top 10, he’s sitting ninth on the consensus rankings, but again, 12th and PPR on their rankings.
So I’m looking at Nick Chubb thinking, his ADP is a little bit better, but I just think he’s an overrated Fantasy player. Again, he’s a good, pure runner, a good running back in reality. But in Fantasy, I’ve always found him overrated and last year’s a perfect example and the years prior, because he got hurt one of those years where he was drafted early, all those years he’s been completely overrated. So in 2020 played 12 games. That was another year where he busted based on the ADP, 191 points in standard in 2020. 207 in PPR in 2020 and then last year, 215 points PPR. Nothing sensational.
Now he did have a good year in 2019 with 255.2 points. That year he had just under 300 attempts with 298. Hadn’t seen that type of volume since 2019. Just not a big volume guy. He’s overrated. I don’t know how to tell you this guy. Like, he’s overrated. Especially with Kareem Hunt there, just not sold on him. Again, the mainstream put him in the top 10 in standard, which is absolutely ludicrous. Just not a guy that I believe in.
What’s sad is there are people that are going to get more volume than him sitting behind him, guys like David Montgomery. So I won’t get into too much on players I like over him, but I will tell you he’s overrated. So, that’s the first guy.
The second guy here, and I don’t see it. I don’t know what the hype is with this guy. People seem to love him. The mainstream consensus had him last year in the top 10 and he busted. I told you he busted. The guy I’m talking about was AJ Brown, so you know who I’m talking about. Currently sitting right now, guys, sit down in your seats, this is not a joke, sixth in PPR.
Now when you say, “Joe, they always copy and paste rankings, Joe. How come they’re not copying and pasting AJ Brown?” Because he finished 32nd last year amongst wide receivers, so you think they’d put them 32nd. Guys, overall, they copy and paste, but there’s the occasional guy they’re biased about that they think that he’s actually good and they’re delusional, or they’re trying to save face from last year, the mainstream are, but AJ Brown is the guy that’s their boy. They love this guy. He was the top 10 guy for the last year and he busted so they’re trying to save face. AJ Brown is not that good.
Now you can say, “Well, Joe, AJ Brown had two 1000-yard receiving seasons in his first two years in 2019, 2020.” 2021 he had a bit of a bad year, only played, what did he play, 13 games? Played 16 games his first year, 14 the year after, and 13 the year after that, which was last year, 869 yards so he was under that thousand yards finally and five touchdowns. So he was down overall so they’re assuming he’s going to come back up. I see what they’re thinking here.
But understand, guys, if he’s there with Tannehill still. Tannehill doesn’t throw for a lot of volumes run for his team and understands, AJ Brown had his opportunity to thrive last year with Derrick Henry being out for half the season, still didn’t thrive, still finished 32nd amongst wide receivers. Busted. I told you he would bust last year. Everybody had Julio Jones and AJ Brown be the top 12 in PPR last year. Like, yeah guys, the volume isn’t going to be there. Ryan Tannehill does not throw as much volume as you guys think he does.
So it’s crazy, it’s ludicrous how they still have him sixth amongst wide receivers. I’m not spending that. There are so much depth guys. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, DeVonta Smith. Again, I could keep going with wide receivers as they go on for days and days and days. There’s so much value. Christian Kirk. You can get wide receiver ones, Elijah Moores. You can get wide receiver ones later that are easily going to outperform AJ Brown and you could stack them later. Okay, guys. I’m not sold on AJ Brown. I don’t believe in AJ Brown, and I think he’s way overrated. Okay.
Next guy here, again, I like this guy. The guy I’m talking about is Deebo Samuel, just so you know who I’m talking about here. Deebo Samuel is overrated. Now I like Deebo Samuel. I liked him last year. I loved him last year. I love Deebo Samuel so much because the mainstream had Brandon Aiyuk. Yes, sit down in your seats. Believe it or not. Some people don’t remember, they just have recency bias. They’re like, “Deebo Samuel did well. Deebo Samuel did good so I’m going to put him in the top 10.” He’s currently sitting, where, at number seven in PPR marks wide receivers.
Why do you guys love this guy, all of a sudden, sheep? Why are you riding my train this year? I was telling you, Deebo Samuel. He was on my show. Google Fantasy Football Deebo Samuel, or Fantasy Football Counselor Deebo Samuel on YouTube, or just look it up. I did a show with him. I think it was in August last year, Deebo Samuel came on the show, and I’m telling you, he was the one. I was telling them he’s the one. Yet the mainstream had Brandon Aiyuk ahead of this guy.
“Now why is he overrated this year, Joe? He did well.” That’s what you’re asking. Deebo Samuel was in a situation last year with Elijah Mitchell out and had eight rushing touchdowns. He had eight receiving touchdowns. He acted in a way as a running back as well with Elijah Mitchell being gone, so I’m looking at him this year.
Then again, now you’re dealing with these contracts as he wants to be paid as the highest-paid wide or highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. He wants that mega-contract. And I kind of see his point of view when Christian Kirk gets paid like $84 million for like four years, and then you look at a guy like Deebo Samuel who’s had one big year. I’m looking at his stats. The guy is good, but 2020, he only played seven games. In 2015, his rookie year, played 15 games, had 803 receiving yards, three touchdowns, nothing special. Again, we said 2020, seven games, one touchdown, and 391 receiving yards. In the last year, he took off, and tore it up. 1405 receiving yards, six touchdowns receiving and he had the eight rushing touchdowns which overinflated his overall value, and I get it.
But, listen, he’s overrated this year because I’m not paying that price for a guy that I could have got for the eighth round last year. I’m just not doing it. I’m not doing it.
Not only that, again, the contract stuff. Even if he gets paid mega dollars, it’s like, okay, is he paid? Is he incentivized? Is he as driven now? Big question mark. Overrated for Fantasy sitting seventh for a guy that, again, I could have gotten like seventh, eighth, ninth round last year. Brandon Aiyuk was ahead of him. Forget it. Overrated for me. Overinflated based on last year. Contract problems, maybe some diva problems there. His a little over-the-top arrogance saying, “I got to be the highest-paid,” a bit of drama for me. I’m going to stay away from him, and he’s a player I’m going to avoid. Players to avoid, guys, for Fantasy Football 2022. You can say players to avoid, but I just think they’re just overrated right now. Yeah, I’m going to avoid him obviously, too, but they are completely overrated.
Number four, here is Kyle Pitts. Listen, I like Kyle Pitts. I was a little wrong on Kyle Pitts last year. I wasn’t necessarily wrong. I still got him for a decent value. But the thing is it’s like he just didn’t perform to the area that I thought he would. I thought he would’ve had a massive ceiling last year. Now Ridley’s not coming back, and neither is Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan throws a ton, a ton.
I did some digging for you guys here. So if Mariota starts here at quarterback and Kyle Pitts, by the way, Kyle Pitts is sitting third on the consensus rankings, he’s amongst tight ends. Like he is really overrated right now. Now the talent is there. This guy was drafted, I believe, in the first round, huge draft capital the Falcons invested on him, thinking that he’s going to perform. He’s got the body of a wide receiver as well. He can be a wide receiver, but, again, didn’t really get the volume that we wanted last year out of him. What did he have? What did he have last year? Let me just take a look at his attempts.
The thing about it is I thought he would’ve had more volume, which he did not get. So he had 68 receptions last year, 110 targets. Unacceptable. What, one touchdown? Like that’s ludicrous. So this was a guy that was fourth pick overall, first round last year.
Now, again, going back, I did some research. So if Mariota is starting, the last year we had a pretty decent year was 2016 for Mariota on the Titans. He had 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 3426 in regards to passing yards, and 3,426. His top tight end that year was Delanie Walker. Delanie Walker had 102 targets on 65 receptions and seven touchdowns. Obviously, Kyle Pitts is better than Delanie Walker, potentially from what we think on paper. But if that is your peak for your tight end with Mariota, I’m not excited. Now, again, a little more ceiling for Kyle Pitts.
Now as number one receiver that year was Rishard Matthews with 108 targets, and 65 receptions as well. So Mariota looking at this does not throw a whole ton. He didn’t throw for huge yardage, not a lot of touchdowns, 26. Again, I’m looking at his 2016 year to kind of compare. Is he going to be on a team with a bad O-line? What are they going to do in the draft? Again, this is pre-draft when I’m talking about this. But if Mariota stays quarterback, which I don’t know if he is, what the Falcons are doing, then Kyle Pitts does not seem that appealing. They’re going to need a wide receiver as well.
As of right now, sitting third is overrated for me, but I definitely see a ceiling here based on talent, youth, opportunity, and draft capital because, again, the Falcon invested very high in Kyle Pitts so they’re going to use him. So Kyle Pitts is someone to watch, huge ceiling, but very overrated as of the time of this recording. Could be wrong.
Number five here, I don’t see the fascination here with D’Andre Swift as my number five here. Listen, I like D’Andre Swift. I think the talent is there. I think the team is suspect. Looking at his years, he’s entering his third season. He’s peaked at 151 attempts. He did that last year with 617 rushing yards.
Now you could say, “Well, Joe, he’s a PPR guy sitting ninth right now in PPR on the consensus.” I don’t trust him. I don’t like him for Fantasy. Didn’t do much last year. Suspect offense with Detroit Lions. I’m not going to pay for it. I’m not going to pay a relatively early, maybe second-round pick on D’Andre Swift based on a hypothetical that this guy has a good year.
Now he’s had a couple of good games last year that show signs of light that this guy could be sensational, including week seven, where he had like, what did he have, 13, what did he have, 13 attempts. Then where he got it done as he had a receiving touchdown and he had 96 receiving guards and 10 receptions or, sorry, eight receptions. He had 28.4 points in week seven, so he got it done in the receiving game. He got ignited.
But that was his top game in regards to targets. He had 10 targets, well, he had 11 targets in week one, which wasn’t bad. But other than that, it was those two games where they were in double-digit targets, but what do you have? Like a couple of receiving touchdowns, all season, nothing sensational. Again, didn’t finish a season in the two years that he’s played on the Detroit Lions.
For me sitting in the top 10 is a little high and I get it. He’s young. He’s talented, probably going to be the main guy there. But again peaking at 151 attempts, which he did last year in two years is a little questionable for me. Again, if I’m drafting early on a running back, especially a guy in the second round, I like the big volume getters if I can get them. You’ll say, “Joe, those guys are gone in round one.” Yeah, but you could probably still get good running backs with good volume in the second round.
This year, there is some value. Even Zeke Elliott is ranked below D’Andre Swift this year. Now I know Zeke Elliot has been dropping in volumes and attempts, but I still like him more than D’Andre Swift. So Swift for me is a pass. I’m going to avoid him. I’m not going to draft him. Do not draft, but not only that he is completely overrated based on what we’ve seen.
So there you have it guys, five overrated players, Nick Chubb, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Pitts, D’Andre Swift. I’m going to be avoiding them. Hopefully, you guys do as well. There is some ceiling with some of these guys, some upside for sure, but the way they sit right now, based on all the facts that I said, they are completely overrated. All right, guys.
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