Fantasy Football Podcast | What Makes the Best Podcast?March 16, 2022
NFL Free Agency Moves | Fantasy Football Impact 2022March 22, 2022
Fantasy Football Podcast | What Makes the Best Podcast?March 16, 2022
NFL Free Agency Moves | Fantasy Football Impact 2022March 22, 2022
Some players you may want to consider drafting in Round 1 for Fantasy Football 2022
- Jonathan Taylor
- Derrick Henry
- Najee Harris
- Javonte Williams
- Jamarr Chase
We’re talking Fantasy Football Draft 2022, a little bit of strategy for the first round. We’re talking first-round studs. Who’s coming off in the first round. Is it going to be Jonathan Taylor? Is it going to be Derrick Henry? Who should you pick up in the first round? Who should you consider? Who should you possibly avoid? All in depth right now, we’re talking first round of Fantasy Football 2022.
Quarterbacks should not be drafted in Round 1
Let’s talk about some candidates for that first round because it’s very, very important to talk about the candidates for the first round. The big candidate here everyone’s going to be talking about is Jonathan Taylor, very easy at running back. At wide receiver, when you’re talking first round Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams are in conversation. At tight end, Kelce might go at the end of the first round, most likely the second round. But Kelce’s always producing. Quarterbacks, unless you’re in a two-quarterback league, I don’t see many quarterbacks going in the first round. We are talking about one quarterback league here. Now, even if I am in a two-quarterback league, I always tend to get a running back first and then go for the quarterback later. For example, Justin Herbert last year, was a fifth-round pick on average in a one quarterback league. In a two-quarterback league, obviously a lot higher. People were gunning for your Pat Mahomes, that type of thing. Now we’ve got Allen, Mahomes, and Herbert at the top there, and they’re probably going to come off the second or third round, I would say even in a one quarterback league. I don’t see Josh Allen or Pat Mahomes or Herbert coming off in the first round in a one quarterback league. We want to focus on who’s coming off in the first round and it’s going to be a Jonathan Taylor. It’s going to be a Derrick Henry. Now, there is a debate here, because I’m looking at the consensus rankings and I go off that because that’s where your buddies might be going off of, if they haven’t discovered me, or that’s where the magazines print off the top 10 consensus. That’s where you draft your team, that’s where the league is going to have them in the queue when you’re doing your mock drafts and your actual draft in your league, these players are going to come up relatively high.
Christian McCaffrey and Cook Could Bust
You’re going to feel almost tempted to go, “Oh, well Christian McCaffrey’s pretty high up. I feel like drafting him in the first round,” and he very well could be a first-round pick, but I don’t trust him. So, let’s just talk about it. Running backs that go in the first round based on the consensus are Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, who’s sitting sixth in PPR amongst running backs, Cam Akers and maybe Joe Mixon. Now, Cam Akers in the mix, but he hasn’t proven to me, he’s the guy that can get it done, being injured the first year or two of his career. Now, I’m seeing now Javonte Williams slide up here in the top 10, understandably so. He’s sitting at 10, but I like him ahead of Dalvin Cook. I like him ahead of Christian McCaffrey if Melvin Gordon’s gone. At the time of this recording, there’s talk that Melvin Gordon will not be coming back, being the free agent that he is. Assuming that he’s not coming back, Melvin Gordon, I like Javonte Williams as a top three, top-four pick. I got him four. I got him to be behind probably Najee Harris. I got Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, or Derrick Henry, Najee Harris. I’m still trying to debate on that. Let’s just say Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and then literally Javonte Williams if Melvin Gordon’s gone. Javonte Williams, if you’re going to ask me yes, 100% a first-round pick, most likely at the end of the first round. If you’re going there, you definitely want to secure him, especially if Melvin Gordon is gone. Even if Melvin Gordon’s there, I think they’re phasing him out.
But, Javonte Williams is the future, and if you look at the way those guys run last year, 203 attempts for Williams, 203 attempts from Melvin Gordon. That’s 406 attempts just for those two running backs. We’re looking at 320 to 350 point floor minimum for Javonte Williams in regards to volume if Melvin Gordon’s gone. The ceiling is high. He’s going to run and he does well when he does run the ball. Eight touchdowns were also hoarded away from Melvin Gordon last year that he took them away from Javonte. That’s going to go to Javonte. We’re looking at a 10 touchdown floor as well for Javonte, who finished with four rushing touchdowns. Javonte Williams, the sky is the limit and can be, I would say easily guys, a top-five, top-six pick if Melvin Gordon’s gone. So, absolutely love him. We’re talking first round here.
Jonathan Talyor Decline Coming
Jonathan Taylor, I love him, but I am seeing and projecting a bit of a decline here for Jonathan Taylor coming off that pinnacle year. That’s something you have to understand. Another disclaimer I want to make here or a note I want to say, when you are drafting in the first round, you cannot rely heavily on the first round. You just can’t. The first round cannot be your make or break of your league. Because last year I won, Cooper Kupp, the fourth round. I got him in the fourth round. He was a league winner. I had, who did I have? Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert was drafted in the fifth round. I got him for value, he finished on top. You look at Justin Herbert, you look at Cooper Kupp, you look at Amon-Ra St. Brown, you look at Ja’Marr Chase. None of these guys are first-round guys, but they finished near the top. That’s what you got to know.
Najee Harris, another guy I drafted, he was outside the top 10. I may have drafted him in the first round. I didn’t last year, I got him in the second because that’s where his ADP was going. People were sleeping on him, but he still finished top three amongst running back. I’m looking at these guys, I’m saying, “Okay, first round, yes you want to secure the safest possible pick. The person’s going to get the most volume. Get the most points, yes. But you shouldn’t be relying just on that.” That’s why I created the 16 round drafts, which is where I give you all the optimal players to draft in each round. We get the 16 round drafts, which you should have also linked here below.
We talked about Javonte Williams, love him in the first round, depending on if Melvin Gordon’s gone, assuming he is, love him. I think people will sleep on him. He’s sitting top 10 on the consensus, so they are sniffing him out a little bit. They are all over that a little bit. They jump on where the train’s going or sorry, where the train was and they know that Javonte Williams is going to get volume. That’s okay. They sleep on a lot of other things.
Now, David Montgomery here is sitting 15th amongst running backs. We’re going to be talk running backs. That’s why you got to hit subscribe. I’m just looking here, David Montgomery, 15th. Tarik Cohen’s gone and there’s a coaching change. I’m liking him as a bit of a sleeper. He’s sitting 15th, but we’re not talking sleepers. We’re talking first round. David Montgomery just caught my eye. Jonathan Taylor, I think there’s going to be a decline, obviously coming off that pinnacle year. It’s tough because when people come off pinnacle years, it’s very unlikely they’re going to finish on top again. We saw this with Priest Holmes as the only running back that’s done this in the past 20 years. Did it in 2002, 2003. It’s very hard to duplicate those numbers. We saw Derrick Henry coming off a pinnacle year, then getting hurt the year after. I like Derrick Henry as a bounce back, so I’m kind of leaning him ahead of maybe Jonathan Taylor, right? Derrick Henry absolute first round must pick up. Jonathan Taylor, I mean, you can’t say he is going to get injured. He’s going to get the volume there. There’s going to be a quarterback change, obviously, Wentz is gone. That may change and maybe they throw the ball more. We’re going to have to see what happens after the NFL draft. Are they going to bring in receivers? What’s the quarterback situation, if they’re throwing more.
Either way, I think Jonathan Taylor gets 300 attempts this year and if he’s healthy, he’s going to get 12 touchdowns as a floor and around 1,200 yards as a floor. He is definitely a first-round pick, barring any type of injury. Taylor, Henry, Najee, love him. Obviously, quarterback situation is going to be suspect there. Is it going to be Mitch Trubisky? Is it going to be Mason? Are those guys going to be able to run an efficient offense to make Najee Harris super viable in the receiving game as well, because he got it done with the receptions last year? I know Najee’s going to be on the field for 90% plus of the snaps. Will he get the receiving game? I still like Najee as a safe first-round pick. Love him, no matter what the quarterback situation is though, I still love him. I mean, his receptions could go down that, but that’s it. Najee Harris must first-round draft pick.
Go Robust RB Strategy
Now, here’s the deal. Another Fantasy Football Draft strategy tip, I’m only going running back first round. But, if you are going to look at a wide receiver, I’m going robust RB. I don’t waste first-round picks on wide receivers. We saw it last year guys. We saw the value with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja-Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp just to name a few. Deebo Samuel was not a first round pick and he finished on top, Hopkins fell off. With wide receivers, you can get that value. Jaylen Waddle, he’s sitting top 10 on the consensus rankings right now. He was 60th last year on the consensus rankings, so was Ja’Marr Chase who was in the 50th amongst consensus rankings. Amon-Ra St. Brown who finish 21st amongst wide receivers last year was 70th on the consensus rankings, going undrafted. Okay, guys, so you can wait on wide receivers. There’s a ton of value, ton of depth at that position. You want to secure the more scarce position in the first round, which is the running back.
No one’s telling you this. They’re like just, “Oh, Cooper Kupp finished on top. Draft him again in that order,” that’s what they tell you. No, no, no. The decline is coming with Cooper Kupp. Different offense. Super Bowl hangover, Odell Beckham is there now. Things change, things shift, things move, injuries happen. Just because he finished on top last year, doesn’t mean he’s going to finish on top this year. It’s amazing how these sheep, this consensus, they got to stop giving advice, all had Robert Woods ahead of Cooper Kupp last year on the rankings. They all had Brandon Aiyuk ahead of Deebo Samuel last year. Where’s Brandon Aiyuk now? Where’s Robert Woods now? Why aren’t you guys talking about them? Why is Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel in the top 10 this year? Why, because they finished on top last year and this is what the BS advice people give you. That’s why you got to subscribe and get 16 rounds and that’s why you’re going to be ahead of the competition.
Ja’Marr Chase Ceiling is High
If you are drafting a wide receiver in the first round, Ja-Marr Chase is a guy that I like, because I still think the ceiling is there. The youth is there, the talent is there. The targets weren’t even up there last year and he still finished near the top. I’m just going to pull up his targets right now. I think he had, what? I’m just doing this off top my head until I pull this up. I think he had 128 targets. I mean Cooper Kupp had 190 targets. It’s a totally different situation there when you’re looking at the ceiling. When I look at the ceiling at a wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase is a guy that’s got it. Ja’Marr Chase, 128 targets, 81 receptions. He finished third, guys third in standard amongst wide receivers.
When you’re looking at PPR, Ja’Marr Chase finished fifth with only 120 targets. I want to emphasize that. I look at Cooper Kupp, 191 targets, 145 reception, 16 touchdowns. Had his pinnacle year. He’s coming down. Ja’Marr Chase is going up. I’m going on the guy that’s going to be potentially coming up. Now, I may not invest a first-round pick on Ja’Marr Chase. If he falls to the second, I wouldn’t mind doing a combo with Derrick Henry or a Najee Harris with a Ja’Marr Chase in round two, but I got to see who’s available. If Javonte Williams is there in the round too, I might combo a Najee and a Javonte. But, I really feel Javonte’s going to be coming off mid-first round to late first round, or very early in the draft this year, especially with Melvin Gordon potentially being gone.
All right. So again, the wide receiver I’m probably dodging. If I am going wide receiver first round, I may consider Adams. At the time of this recording, obviously, there’s some talk about his contract issues. They only want to secure him for a one-year tender for a franchise tag. Obviously, Adams wants a mega-contract. We’re going to have to see how that goes. Obviously, they paid Aaron Rodgers. They got to pay his wide receiver. I don’t know. I don’t know what else to tell you. But Adams, I don’t know, man. When is that decline coming? I still think if he gets paid, he and Rodgers have one last dance, a big last dance, barring any type of injury. I still like Davante Adams.
You could go Jefferson. I still think Thielen is going to be hoarding away a lot of those touchdowns and could emerge as the wider receiver one still. He did get hurt near the end of the season, but I don’t know. Jefferson’s still solid. I do like him, but again, Ja’Marr Chase as well. Tyreek Hill, a lot of people drafted him in the first round, very volatile. There are about four or five games you got to assume he’s going to have under 10 points. You’re going to expect disappointment and you’re going to expect some boom games out of Tyreek Hill. Very, very common out of him. Again, let’s just recap the first round. If it’s a two-quarterback league, you may want to consider a quarterback. I still go running back. I’m still going running back, no matter what. Running backs to consider the first round are obviously Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris. You might want to consider Javonte Williams if Melvin Gordon is gone.
Again, you got to be careful with this first-round pick. There is other guys like Dalvin Cook, who hasn’t finished a season. I’m dodging him. Christian McCaffrey could be due for a bounce back. It’s funny here because both Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey aren’t far off in regards to who’s more talented. But, Saquon Barkley’s clearly sitting 14th on the consensus, McCaffrey’s at four. I don’t get it. McCaffrey’s only played 10 games in the past two seasons. He might be on a different team. We’re not sure at the time of this recording, in regards to his landing spot and we’re going to know more after the NFL draft and all this free agency trading happen here. But, Christian McCaffrey, there is teams looking at him. Saquon Barkley may not end up on the Giants. But, those guys could be first-round picks if they’re in a situation where they get the volume and they stay healthy, they could finish on top.
If not, I still think Saquon Barkley could be a good value. I think Zeke Elliott could be a great value this year, but we have seen a decline coming from him over the past three years in a loss of attempts to Tony Pollard. What I’m saying is here’s a cool thing transpiring here, is that there is a ton of value at running backs that could fall. Saquon Barkley could be a good value. Aaron Jones, I still think Dillon takes a step up. David Montgomery, sitting 15th on the consensus. Josh Jacobs, Michael Carter, there’s some good value at running back that you can really combo a nice RB situation. You can have guys that are being drafted in the first round, guys like Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey that could really bust. Then you get your secure running back and get yourself stacked of a couple of other value running backs below.
I’m going to talk about this in the 16 round draft solution and that gets released and you pre-order now, but that gets fully released a week after the NFL draft after we know who’s who and how the depth charts layout. But again, when we’re talking first-round guys, very simple tip here, secure a running back in the first round, no matter what. Very scarce position and there’s only a handful of running backs that have minimal committees. You want one or two of those guys, ideally. All right. That’s your first-round guys. Do not invest a tight end. Tight end you can wait. Wide receiver ton of value, a ton of depth at that position. Cooper Kupp’s definitely going to decline coming off a pinnacle season. Tyreek Hill’s always a waste of a first-round pick. I mean he finishes near the top, but he’s a very volatile game in and game out.
If I am going first round, I wouldn’t mind Diggs, possibly Ja’Marr Chase first round, end of the first round. But again, tons of value at wide receiver. Wide receiver for days, tons of value from Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonte Smith, Chris Godwin signing a big contract. He could have a resurgence this year. Deandre Hopkins, he’s sitting 16th amongst wide receivers. He was a first-round pick, maybe he bounces back. Guys, tons of value at wide receiver. You can definitely wait and get a top 10 wide receiver after the third or fourth round, easily, that’s going to finish on top. We saw it last year, okay guys. And again, if you guys look at last year, real quickly, Hunter Renfrow finished top 10. He was undrafted, literally. Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel finished top 10 last year, Diontae Johnson who I was saying to get last year, finished eighth, right? Jaylen Waddle finished 13th, pretty much undrafted. Tons of depth at wide receiver, if you are looking first round, secure that running back. There is some first-round fantasy football draft strategy. And again, remember it takes more than one round to win your league. Get the 16 round draft solution. Secure it right now at thefantasyfootballcounselor.com.
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