Why Last Year’s Top Running Backs Won’t Finish the Same in 2026
Every single season, fantasy managers make the same mistake:
They copy and paste last year’s rankings and expect the same results.
That never works.
A perfect example is Saquon Barkley. Last year, he was being drafted as a top-two or top-three running back. I warned about:
A pinnacle season
A Super Bowl hangover
A workload regression
Sure enough, Barkley finished 14th among running backs.
This happens every year:
Injuries
Regression
Changing workloads
Coaching decisions
Fantasy football is about forecasting, not reacting.
What the Top 5 Looked Like Last Season (And Why It Will Change)
Last season’s top running backs included:
Christian McCaffrey
Bijan Robinson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jonathan Taylor
De’Von Achane
I can almost guarantee this exact group will not finish top five again.
Someone will regress.
Someone will get hurt.
Someone new will rise.
Our job is to figure out who’s trending up — and who’s about to fall. Everyone else will tell you to draft last year’s players in the same order that they finished, and doing that will not help you in fantasy. You have to project forward and think outside the box and I will show you how.
How I Rank Running Backs for Fantasy Football
Before counting down the top five, here’s what matters most in my rankings:
Volume (attempts matter more than talent)
Durability
Committee risk
Passing game usage (especially in PPR)
Offensive stability
Talent alone does not win fantasy leagues.
Opportunity does.
Ashton can really in 2026 (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
#5 – Ashton Jeanty
This one is going to surprise some people — and that’s fine.
Ashton Jeanty quietly had a very strong rookie season despite being in arguably the worst situation in football:
Poor offensive line
Bad quarterback play
No real receiving threats
Constant stacked boxes
And yet…
Ashton Jeanty 2025 Stats:
11th in fantasy points (PPR)
975 rushing yards
266 rushing attempts (7th among RBs)
3.7 yards per carry
5 rushing TDs
5 receiving TDs
73 targets
55 receptions
Top 10 among RBs in receiving usage
For a rookie in that environment, this is extremely impressive.
If his offensive situation improves even slightly, Jeanty has clear top-10 — and potentially top-5 — upside.
That’s why he cracks my list.
#4 – James Cook
I’m early on this one, but the metrics are undeniable.
James Cook is now the focal point of the Bills’ offense, and more importantly — no one is threatening his volume.
James Cook 2025 Stats:
6th in fantasy points
302.2 fantasy points
309 rushing attempts (3rd among RBs)
12 rushing touchdowns
1,621 rushing yards
2 receiving touchdowns
That rushing workload is elite.
Yes, there’s potential regression after a massive year.
Yes, the Bills could add receiving weapons.
But unless something drastic changes, Cook’s role is secure, and volume keeps him firmly in the top tier.
#3 – Saquon Barkley
This is where people get confused — but this is how fantasy works.
Barkley regressed last year, exactly as expected. That doesn’t mean he’s done.
Saquon Barkley 2025 Stats:
14th in fantasy points
232 fantasy points
280 rushing attempts (6th among RBs)
1,140 rushing yards
His workload dropped from 345 attempts the previous year — and when volume drops, fantasy points follow.
That said, Barkley is still:
Extremely talented
Still receiving strong volume
Likely due for a bounce-back season
I don’t recommend drafting him in Round 1 — but as a Round 2 value, he could absolutely return top-five production.
Jahmyr Gibbs is getting better each season! (Photo by Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire)
#2 – Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most explosive running backs in the league — and he’s still being held back.
Jahmyr Gibbs 2025 Stats:
366 fantasy points
243 rushing attempts
13 total touchdowns
Top-5 fantasy RB finish
The problem?
David Montgomery still siphoned 158 rushing attempts.
Montgomery’s workload has declined every year:
219 attempts → 185 → 158
If even a portion of that volume shifts to Gibbs, we’re talking about a league-winning ceiling.
Gibbs already produces elite fantasy numbers without elite volume.
Give him more work, and he could easily finish as RB1.
#1 – Bijan Robinson
This one shouldn’t be controversial.
Bijan Robinson checks every single box you want in a first-round fantasy running back.
Bijan Robinson 2025 Stats:
370 fantasy points
5th in rushing attempts
1,478 rushing yards
7 rushing touchdowns
Elite efficiency
Excellent durability
What separates Bijan from everyone else is reliability.
He’s:
Young
Durable
Featured in his offense
Minimally affected by committees
Even when Allgeier mixed in, Bijan remained the clear alpha.
That combination of talent, volume, and safety makes him my early RB1 for fantasy football 2026.
Why Christian McCaffrey Is NOT in My Top 5
Yes — I left him out on purpose.
Christian McCaffrey has followed the same pattern for years:
One elite season
One injury-filled season
He’s entering his 10th NFL season, and history tells us regression — or injury — is coming.
Drafting McCaffrey in 2026 is betting against history, and that’s not how you win fantasy leagues.
Honorable Mentions (Potential Breakouts)
These running backs could easily jump into the top five with more volume:
RJ Harvey
Quinshon Judkins
All were:
Held back by committees
Limited by injuries
Underutilized in Year 1
Give any of them a clear RB1 role, and they explode.
Final Thoughts: Fantasy Football RB Strategy for 2026
Running back is still the most scarce position in fantasy football.
The managers who win:
Identify volume early
Avoid pinnacle seasons
Draft players trending up, not down
These rankings will change — but the process won’t.
Who Is YOUR RB1 for Fantasy Football 2026?
Is it Bijan?
Are you betting on Gibbs?
Are you brave enough to draft McCaffrey again?
Drop your thoughts below, bookmark the site, and check back daily — because we’re rolling out fantasy football content year-round.
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