WHY DOES CONSISTENCY MATTER?
In my opinion, the worst kind of player for fantasy football is the kind that gets you 11 targets one week, then two targets the next, then 10 targets the week after. You’re never going to know if you should start that kind of player, and if you do start him, chances are he will burn your fantasy team!
We want guys that are going to get about the same amount of usage from week to week regardless of the game script. Bad games can still happen (a guy with ten targets can still end the day with one catch), but the fact that he’s getting you about 10 targets/week means there will be better days ahead.
A guy with high consistency is a guy you can trust. The biggest problem with players that score low on this metric is that you can’t trust them. You will sweat bullets contemplating whether or not to start them on your fantasy team because you know there is a high likelihood that you will get burned!
HOW DO YOU SCORE CONSISTENCY?
We look at the total number of opportunities (pass attempts, rush attempts, and pass targets) each player has during the 2022 season. We then look at their usage each week against the average usage. The more he deviates from the average usage the lower his consistency score is.
For example, let’s look at two players that average 8.2 targets/game.
Player One 14, 4, 9, 3, 11
Player Two 10, 7, 9, 5, 10
Player two scores better on consistency, even though both saw the same amount of opportunities with the ball (41 total targets). You can see that Player One had two bust games for usage whereas Player Two only had one bust game. It’s also true that Player 1 had two games with 11 or more targets whereas Player 2 did not have any, but it will be much easier to trust Player 2 because his usage is much easier to project.
In the app, we smooth out the data by removing the highest and lowest opportunity games from weeks 1-17. Any player can have a bad game, and any player can have what I call a “Gonzo” game. We remove the two outliers to get a better idea of their usage and consistency.
Finally, we score them on a scale of 1-10, with ten being the best. The lowest variance calculation gets the highest consistency score. The highest variance gets the lowest consistency score. Players are only measured against other players of the same type and only against players drafted in the top 250.
CONSISTENCY MAKES UP 20% OF THE CUDDY SCORE
Players scoring 9 or 10 on the consistency rating will score a maximum of 20 CUDDY points in that category. As long as a player scores five or more, they will earn CUDDY points, and those are the players I like to focus on. All else being equal, I want a player with better consistency for my fantasy team. Players who score a 1 or 2 will have 10 points removed from their CUDDY score and this needs to be avoided.
SO WHO ARE THE MOST CONSISTENT PLAYERS IN THE TOP 60?
Surprisingly, there are no Quarterbacks who score a 10 out of 10 on consistency in the top 60, however, both Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow get a 9, which is still excellent!
There are 24 Running Backs being selected in the Top 60. Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Breece Hall, and Dameon Pierce all scored a 10 out of 10 for consistency!
There are 26 Wide Receivers in the Top 60. Garret Wilson, Chris Olave, and Deebo Samuel are the only players to score a 10 out of 10 here.
No surprise here, as Travis Kelce is the only Tight End in the top 60 to score a 10 out of 10.
WHERE CAN I SEE THE REST OF THE SCORES?
Even though 16 Rounds Plus is under construction and won’t be ready until May 21st, all the Consistency calculations are in the app and can be accessed now. Click the link to subscribe and see the whole list!
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