Fantasy Football Busts 2025
Introduction
Fantasy football success isn’t just about drafting the best players; it’s about avoiding the biggest mistakes. Every year, certain players get hyped up only to leave fantasy owners in ruins. This article breaks down the top five fantasy football busts of 2025, highlighting why these big names should be on your “do not draft” list. If you’re searching for “fantasy football busts,” “fantasy players to avoid,” or “do not draft players,” you’ve come to the right place.
Baker Mayfield is overpriced in fantasy for 2025! (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
1. Baker Mayfield (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Why You Should Avoid Him:
- Outlier Season: Mayfield had a career year in 2024 with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns—numbers he’s never approached before.
- History of Mediocrity: Before 2024, he never threw for more than 27 TDs in a season.
- Aging Supporting Cast: Mike Evans is another year older, and Chris Godwin’s future is uncertain.
- Regression Looms: Expect a significant drop-off in production.
Fantasy Outlook:
Mayfield is currently ranked as a top-six fantasy QB, but don’t fall for the trap. His 2024 stats are an anomaly rather than a sign of sustained greatness. The mainstream fantasy football consheepsus analysts are basically just copying and pasting based on last year. I don’t think this will end well for him in 2025 or anyone that draft him. Look elsewhere when it comes to QBs.
Lamar Jackson is coming off a big year- Decline imminent (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)
2. Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
Why You Should Avoid Him:
- Unrealistic Passing Numbers: Jackson set career highs in passing yards (4,172) and touchdowns (41) in 2024. He had never thrown for over 4,000 yards before.
- Injury Concerns: He’s played a full season only twice in the past four years.
- Super Bowl Hangover: The Ravens’ offense may regress after their deep playoff run.
- High Draft Cost: Jackson will likely be one of the first QBs off the board, making his risk even greater.
Fantasy Outlook:
While LamarJackson is an elite playmaker, his fantasy ADP makes him a risk. His value lies in his rushing ability, but history suggests he’s unlikely to replicate last season’s passing efficiency. Will Lamar have another outstanding season in fantasy football? I doubt it and won’t pay the price to find out!
Derrick Henry is due for a decline! (Photo by Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire)
3. Derrick Henry (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
Why You Should Avoid Him:
- Age Concerns: Henry turns 31 this season, which is ancient for a workhorse running back.
- Heavy Workload: Over 2,000 career carries—wear and tear will catch up.
- Uncertain Team Situation: As of now, Henry is a free agent. Where he lands will impact his fantasy stock.
- High ADP: Despite concerns, he’s still being drafted as a top-six RB.
Fantasy Outlook:
Henry was a steal in 2024 drafts, but in 2025, he’s a trap. The risk of decline is too high to justify drafting him early. I even heard today, that the Ravens are getting ready to meet with rookie stud Ashton Jeanty! This shows they have no confidence in Derrick Henry no more. Way to expensive in drafts and I won’t pay the rd one price on a 31 year old running back!
Kamara is washed up! (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)
4. Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints)
Why You Should Avoid Him:
- Lack of Rushing Production: Kamara has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season in his career.
- Declining Efficiency: Yards per carry have been dropping every year.
- Age & Wear: Entering his ninth season, his explosiveness is fading.
- Competition in the Backfield: The Saints will likely phase him out in favor of younger backs.
Fantasy Outlook:
Kamara still has value in PPR leagues, but he’s nowhere near the elite RB he once was. Drafting him early will leave you disappointed.
5. Saquon Barkley (RB, Eagles)
Why You Should Avoid Him:
- Coming Off a Career Year: 2,000 rushing yards, 5.8 YPC, and 13 TDs in 2024—an outlier season.
- Super Bowl Hangover: The Giants’ offense might struggle to replicate last year’s success.
- High Injury Risk: Barkley has battled injuries throughout his career.
- Overvalued Draft Position: He’ll likely be a top-3 pick, meaning little room for profit.
Top 5 RBs 2025(Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)
Fantasy Outlook:
Barkley is a fantastic player, but history tells us RBs rarely repeat such dominant seasons. Instead of chasing last year’s stats, opt for safer options.
Conclusion: Be Smart & Avoid These Busts
Fantasy football is about value and risk management. Players coming off career-best seasons or dealing with age and durability issues often disappoint the following year. When drafting for 2025, consider avoiding:
- Baker Mayfield (QB) – Anomaly year, unlikely to repeat.
- Lamar Jackson (QB) – Overvalued after career-high passing numbers.
- Derrick Henry (RB) – 31 years old, nearing the end of elite production.
- Alvin Kamara (RB) – Declining efficiency, limited rushing upside.
- Saquon Barkley (RB) – Career year, likely regression.
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