The first guy here, let’s just rip into this, dive into it, it’s Christian McCaffrey. Now Christian McCaffrey, what I don’t like about him guys is the fact that he’s played 10 games in the past two seasons. Not enough for me. 10 games, two seasons, not enough. If you saw the injury last year, he tweaked his hamstring running to the outside, big deal. It wasn’t even like someone touched him and you’re like, “Well, Joe injuries happen”, with the knee or hamstring or whatever, without anyone touching you I guess hamstring injuries happen. But this guy I’m telling you, man, he’s overpriced.
Sitting number two guys, amongst running backs right now. So people are drafting him at a top three, top four pick, that’s ludicrous considering he’s only played 10 games in the past two seasons, new offense, new situation. Hasn’t had a good year since like what, three years ago? So I’m not paying for him. I say, “Joe, why do you love Saquon Barkley so much?”. Because Saquon Barkley, I can get as late as the third round, I’m not paying a top-three pick. The top three rounds versus the top-three pick are totally different. Where Saquon actually is two years removed from his injury and is now into the groove centerpiece of that offense. He’s going to get work this year. Whereas Christian McCaffrey, he’s overpaid. You know, you’re overpaying for him. I’m not, I’m not doing it. So he’s going to bust based on his ADP.
I just don’t see this guy finishing as a top three, top two running back. Don’t see it. I see him possibly falling out of the top 10 because again, the injuries plagued him. He’s out there modeling, doing his thing. I’m not sold on Christian McCaffery. Again, he could have a good year. He could bounce back to the way he was, to the 2019 year with 287 attempts, 13 plus hundred yards on the ground. A thousand plus yards receiving. We could have that type of gear. Very unlikely. I’m not going to overpay. Big name, big bust, Christian McCaffrey.
The second guy here and wait till you hear four and five because they’re overrated. They’re not as huge names. They’re well-known names, but they’re not as big, but man, are they overinflated. We’re going to talk about that. Okay. Number two here. Dalvin Cook. Now Dalvin Cook guys. I don’t know how to tell you this. The guy is going to get hurt. Like I’m telling you can’t predict injuries except for Dalvin Cook. Like you can really forecast his injuries because he has not finished the season. Guaranteed to miss two to three to four to five games. Maybe, even more, he’s been pretty lucky. He’s only missed a couple of games the past couple of years. Okay.
Last year was a top-three pick and finished 16th. He busted last year, but the mainstreamers they’re saving face. I’m just so hyped up today in this episode. They’re saving face and they’re bringing him back and saying, okay, well this is the Dalvin Cook we know. This is the guy we’ve been feeding you for the past couple of years. Remember they told you, Odell, for like four to five years Odell’s, a top 5, top 10 wide receivers, busted every year because they like to save face on certain players.
They love riding these certain players, no matter what. Dalvin Cook is one of them and Dalvin Cook is going to get hurt this year. If you got to say to yourself, “I’m going to draft Dalvin Cook, but I have to have Mattison”, don’t draft Dalvin Cook. I’ve said this many times, I’ve said it every single year, draft someone who is going to do better in the first round. Henry, I feel safer within round 1. Then get Mattison later because when Dalvin Cook goes down, which he will, you’ve got two RB1s. Does that make sense that you could trade Mattison? You could do whatever you want. You got more leverage. But if you simply just draft Mattison as a handcuff to Cook, you’re wasting a roster spot for Cook. I mean you know he is going to get hurt. Like, does that make sense?
So, Dalvin Cook, I’m not sold on, hasn’t finished a season. Again, here’s the thing it’s like, playing fantasy roulette. It’s like saying, I’m going to draft Cook. I know he is going to get hurt because he gets hurt every single season. It’s like, what week is he going to get hurt? Is he going to get hurt that one week where I’m down four points and I needed that extra touchdown and Cook gets hurt? Or do I need him for my class which he’s done before, he screwed people in Fantasy Football playoffs. Didn’t show up in the final Championships game. Didn’t show up a couple of years ago, Dalvin Cook. He’s screwed people enough, long enough to know I’m fading him. Big-name. He’s going to bust, Dalvin Cook is way too overpriced this year.
The third guy here. I don’t see the fascination with A.J. Brown. That’s the next guy here. Don’t see why A.J. Brown is ranked so high. I’m not seeing the value here at all. Finished I think 32nd last year amongst wide receivers. I told you to fade A.J. Brown, stay away. Okay. Tannehill does not throw a lot. It’s a run-first team, yet he was being drafted in the top 10 last year. Julio was top 12 as well. Both of them were top 12. And I said, “Hey, I’m going to fade both because we haven’t determined who the wide receiver one is”. How much volume? Is Julio going to stay healthy? What has A.J. Brown done to deserve this type of acclaim and recognition?
I’m much like it’s crazy. He’s a big name, but he’s a big bust. And he was a bust last year so the name is fitting to where he is. This year again he’s ranked top 11, top 10. He’s sitting top 10 right now. It’s ludicrous. I mean the guy had a good year. What? 2020. He had his 11 touchdowns in just over a thousand-yard season. But he’s maxed out at 70 receptions. This guy doesn’t see past 70 receptions. Now he’s on a new team, a new quarterback to him.
They’ve got Smith there as well. DeVonta Smith. So Smith is a guy that I think peaked at 104 targets. Let me pull this up here. It was 104 targets last year. And again guys, I don’t see the volume here. I don’t even know what to tell you. I just don’t see the volume here with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Because again, Hurts still has to get integrated. Still has to get comfortable. Is he this year? That’s a gamble. I think he is.
But again, looking at DeVonta Smith, who was the number one receiver there last year, 104 targets peaked and he’s still there. So how is A.J. Brown going to peak at 140, 150 targets when the number one receiver last year peaked at 104. Now looking at their tight ends last year, particularly Goddard had 76 targets. So you know, Hurts didn’t throw a lot. Maybe let’s say he throws a lot more this year, but now you got to divvy it up between Smith and A.J. Brown. I don’t see it, man. I just don’t see A.J. Brown coming up and just being this top 10 receiver. Eagles suspect, offense, DeVonta Smith there. I’m looking at it. I’m just like mathematically it doesn’t add up. Right? So A.J. Brown to me, big name, big bust. Should not be anywhere near the top 10. Okay.
Now the next two are wide receiver twos. Okay. But you’re going to know the name. The first guy is Tee Higgins. Now Tee Higgins had a safe campaign last year, with six touchdowns, just over a thousand yards, 110 targets, and 74 receptions. Good year, finished 24th amongst wide receivers. But here’s the thing, Higgins is ranked 13th amongst wide receivers and he’s a wide receiver too. Okay. We know that Chase is the one, this is clear cut. If this is a race Chase is light years ahead of Higgins. So why is Higgins ranked 13th on the consensus, on the sheep rankings, knowing there are other wide receiver 1s that are far superior like Sutton and Jeudy are ranked below. One of them is going to be a wide receiver 1. Amari Cooper, he’s the wide receiver on his team, he’s ranked below. Michael Pittman, Drake London, who’s going to slide in to be a wide receiver one, right?
There are so many, so many wide receivers, that are ones on their team that are ranked below Tee Higgins, which is absolutely ludicrous. He’s going to bust. There’s no way him and Chase finish top 13. I mean, it’s possible, but there are better wide receivers you can get that have higher ceilings you could draft over Higgins. Does that make sense to you guys? Higgins could be safe, but I just don’t see him getting the volume with Chase being the guy, right? You’re drafting Higgins with the potential to let’s say go robust RB. You’re looking at Higgins like round two, three, maybe even four as a stretch. Now you’re getting him as your wide receiver one after you’ve gone robust RB, but he’s not a wide receiver one. He’s not. So he’s overpriced. He’s overpriced. He’s a big name, but is he going to be a big bust? He’s not really a big name, but the mainstream contestants have him ranked as if he’s a big name. 13th amongst wide receivers, a PPR. There are going to be other wide receivers that going to finish ahead of him. I’m not sold.
Another big name, big bust. He was a big name in Miami. He was the wide receiver one. Now he’s not, sitting 14th, is Jaylen Waddle. Now Jaylen Waddle finished in and around the same area last year around 13th, and 14th. Let me pull this up here to be exact with you. Very, very overrated. And that’s the thing about it, right? So he finished last year 13th, currently sitting 14th on the consensus, on the consensus rankings. So I’m looking at Waddle now peaking at 141 targets. That’s great. That’s a good year, right? That’s a good year.
This is the funny thing. I got to talk big name, big bust, another bust, which I should just put Tyreek Hill here. Tyreek Hill. Let’s make Tyreek Hill number five. Forget Jaylen Waddle, both. Either way they’re both overinflated. Okay. You’re looking at Tyreek Hill who had 159 targets last year, 159. So let’s switch, let’s put Tyreek Hill as five, in brackets, parentheses, or whatever you want to call it, I don’t know the proper grammar punctuation. But Jaylen Waddle in brackets beside him. Tyreek Hill had 159 targets last year. He had Pat Mahomes thrown on the ball. I don’t know about you, but from what I heard, Pat Mahomes was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I could be wrong. It is what it is, 159 targets. He was very volatile with Pat Mahomes. He had games, I think he had four or five, six games where he was like a wide receiver four, in regards to production.
So I look at a guy like Tyreek Hill and I’m looking at him. He’s sitting top five amongst… Or what is he? Top eight or whatever amongst wide receivers. He’s got Waddle there, who’s the one! Waddle is the one, right? He was the one last year. He had 141 targets. He’s still there. So how is it possible that Tyreek Hill is still a top-five, top 10 receiver with Waddle still there? And people are drafting Tyreek Hill in the early second round. It’s crazy. I’m not touching him. I’m not touching him with Tua.
Now, Tua could come out, and be sensational, but I still don’t think there’s enough volume to go around, to make Tyreek Hill a top-five finisher that he was last year. That’s my thoughts on it. So big name, big bust Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle. I think they’re both overpriced. One of them could emerge. If one gets hurt, boom, one shoots up to the top 10. I’m not sold or I’m not investing on a dice flip or whatever you call it a coin flip on these guys. All right.
So Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook. A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, overpriced sitting 13th, and Jaylen Waddle, are some big names. Tyreek Hill, big names primed for a big bust. Overpriced. All right guys, that’s it for you guys. Then there’s more, there are a lot of guys that are overpriced and overrated and big names that are going to bust, but I’m not going to get into all of them. That’s why you guys got to subscribe. You get the 16-round draft show. I walk you through all of this for you guys in detail