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We are talking about Davante Adams’ new home with the Las Vegas Raiders. Should you draft him? That’s the big question because I see on the mainstream consensus, his average draft position and his ranking, which is sitting fourth amongst wide receivers have not changed. But so much else has, right? Everything else around him has, including a new team, a different quarterback, new offense, everything is changed, but should his ranking stay the same? Should you draft him? I’m going to break it down with you in the most honest, realistic, and practical way and let you know if you should draft him and whether I should draft him for Fantasy Football 2022.
Let’s dive into Davante Adams and his Fantasy Football value and outlook and impact for Fantasy Football 2022. First and foremost, let’s start off here with last year’s stats for Davante Adams, okay, Davante Adams last year had a great year finishing the second NPPR, amongst wide receivers, 344.3 PPR fantasy points. We’re talking 169 targets. That is massive. When you look at it from a target perspective, that put him second in target, only behind Cooper Kupp coming off a historical year with 191 targets.
So we’re talking a lot of targets for Davante Adams, which is really good. That’s what we want to see. Great. This is last year. And when you say, “Well, Joe, how do you compare that to this year?” We’re going to talk about that because we have something to go off now. We’re going to start off with the foundation of last year’s stats. 169 targets, 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That’s great. Great cheer. But he is with Aaron Rogers. But it gives you some springboard, some foundation to start your analysis on Davante Adams. So this is what I do, okay. Then the second thing I look at is, who was the top receiver for Derek Carr? If you guys are… Unless you’ve been sleeping under a rock or something, you got to know that Davante Adams is now with the Raiders. Different team, right? So Davante Adams with the Raiders, they had a college connection, Derek Carr Adams. That’s in the past, that was 2013, 14, or whatever. I don’t care what year it was. We are in the NFL now and we are in 2022.
So I look at the top receiver. That’s the second thing I look at when I look at the stats here. Now, Hunter Renfrow, last year was the top receiver, last year for the Raiders. Now his numbers look pretty good. 128 targets, 103 receptions, 1038 yards, and nine touchdowns. He was an [outlet 00:03:59] for Derek Carr. He was a guy that Derek Carr relied on. Okay. That’s cool. All right. But why was that? Well, because there really wasn’t any other wide receiver there and Waller was hurt near the stretch of the season. He was hurt weeks 13, 14, 15. He was after week 12, Waller was hurt. So Hunter Renfrow, the other… Was the number one wide receiver. Then you have Bryan Edwards with 59 targets. Zay Jones with 70 targets, all right. And combined with Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones, they had what? Like four touchdowns together, right? Ruggs was there at the beginning of the season. We all know what happened to Henry Ruggs. We don’t even need to discuss that, but he played a couple of games at the beginning of the season as well before his altercation, right? He played, I think up to week seven, for Henry Ruggs. So, he’s obviously gone.
Hunter Renfrow took over last year. So, we know that Renfrow was the number one guy, but why? Well, let’s break it down even further. And again, this is… We’re getting somewhere. Some people will say, “Well, Joe, you don’t break down stats. You just tell us your gut feeling.” No. Gut feeling plays a part in it, but I’m looking at the entire situation. Darren Waller played 11 games last year. 93 targets, 55 receptions, two touchdowns. Waller was not there for pretty much the half portion of the season, right? Now he did come back. I see him here in week 18. Okay. I see week 18. I see him here with nine targets. And what do we have here? 22 yards. Las Vegas rear tight-end caught 12 targets on 76 yards in the AFC Wild Card game as well.
So again, near the end of the season in the Wild Card game, he got his targets. Week 18, I see here, again, nine targets and 12 targets in the AFC Wild Card game loss. So he was back in the group getting the bulk of targets. So, “Joe, what’s the point of all this?” The point of all this is that Waller is still there. This is very important. Remember when we went back, we just talked about it. Adams’ had 169 targets, all right? That’s fine. But Waller’s going to be back, if healthy, for the full season. He’s going to demand his targets. How many targets is Waller theoretically going to demand? Well, I go back to his 2020 year when he was there the entire time. He played 16 games, 145 targets. Listen to this. 107 receptions, nine touchdowns, 1,196 yards. So Waller is a wide receiver when on the field. Then you’ve got that rapport with Hunter Renfrow who was at 128 targets last year. Yes, with Waller, not being out, you’ve got an increase near the end, but you’re looking at least 90 targets. We’re going to drop Hunter Renfrow around 40 targets down. Maybe let’s drop him 50 targets, let’s say he gets 80 targets.
Waller, when he’s playing 145 targets with Adams there, let’s drop him down another 40 targets. We’re looking at another 100 targets for Waller. And this is not even counting the running backs. The running backs get their fair share of receptions as well. Josh Jacobs does catch the ball of the backfield, ladies and gentlemen. So I am looking at this and I’m thinking, “Okay, well, running backs are going to work.” Josh Jacobs last year, 64 targets, 54 receptions. Drake last year, 40 targets, 30 receptions. That’s 104 targets just to running backs alone. The top two running backs, Peyton Barbara, Alec Ingold, Jalen Richard got their share as well. Combined, I would say almost 40, just over 40 give or take targets that way. So we’re looking at 150 targets to running backs. Waller. Then you’re looking at Renfrow
So now you’ve got Davante Adams. Now we’re getting to the meat and potatoes here. Davante Adams had 169 targets. Will he get 169 targets this year, okay? Well, let’s go back and take a look at the quarterback. Let’s take a look at Derek Carr in his attempts. This is good news. 628 attempts for Derek Carr last year. That is really good news. When you look at it from an attempts’ perspective, he was fifth in attempts amongst quarterbacks. 626. So, guys, this is really good news. So there is a lot of targets, but we see the distribution of those targets and that should be an issue, right? Because he spreads the ball around. Looking at him in 2020, when you look at him from an attempt’s perspective, he was 14th in attempts. So yeah, he threw the ball a little bit more in 2021, but he was 14th and pass attempts in 2020.
So just going back two years, I don’t want to go back too far. So we’re looking at around 517 attempts in 2020. 600 and some odd attempts in 2021. So I’m looking at around 560, 580 passing attempts unless he gets really past happy this year. So the biggest problem here I have with Davante Adams going into the season is not so much Davante Adams. It’s going to be a rapport thing. Yes, they’ve played together before, Carr and Adams, but they’re now in the NFL. New offense. Facing the toughest corners in the world, right? Adams will be. And he’s fine handling it when Roger is throwing the ball, but will he be fine handling when Derek Carrs running the ball? That is the big question. Now again, when was the last time Derek Carr made any wide receiver really that good? It was Waller back in 2020. He’s not even a wide receiver. He’s a tight end.
So I have a lot of question marks here. And the biggest question mark to me is the volume. Secondly, is rapport. I just don’t know if it’s going to be there. I mean, man, it’s tough. And here’s another problem I have here with this whole situation is the mainstream consensus. Even though all these changes have happened, the mainstream, the magazines that are going to be coming out. The consensus, the networks, they’re going to be telling you to know, Davante Adams as a top-four wide receiver. A couple of problems. I go Robust RB. And I explain this in the 16 Rounds Draft Solution, I go Robust RB. So for that reason, that reason alone, you’re asking me, should you draft Davante Adams for Fantasy Football 2020? For me, it’s a big no.
For you guys, that’s a different situation. Maybe you guys love Adams. Maybe you absolutely believe in the talent. And I believe in talent. I think the talent is great. Pretty much second to none. There are other great receivers that are emerging. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson. Hopkins, who had a down year, is a great receiver. Michael Thomas could have a resurgence this year. That’s another thing. You’re going to get a lot of sleepers this year, a ton of sleepers, like Michael Thomas and Hopkins, who just had one bad year or two or they just had a bad situation. They fell off. They could reemerge as a top three, top one wide receiver had they have that potential. Maybe Christian Kirk’s gone. Maybe Hopkins gets more volume this year, gets back to peak state again, where he was for Fantasy. So again, I’m looking at this and I’m really laying it out.
And like I said, I’m taking targets away from Hunter Renfrow. I’m taking targets away from Waller, who already has that rapport with Carr. And then again, you got those running backs catching the ball. Derek Carr likes to throw to his running backs. We saw over a 100, I don’t know, 40 50 targets going that way, combined with all those running backs. So again, it’s a little suspect for me to have items finished as a top for the receiver, which is where he’s going. I think he still has a good season. So I’m not here to completely knock him and say, “Oh, well this is going to suck. This is going to be catastrophic.” That’s not what I’m here to say. All I’m saying is 169 targets is going to be hard to achieve yet again for Adams. And again, 11 touchdowns. And he was a touchdown machine in 2020.
And I said to you that Adams would regress there in the touchdowns. I mean, he had to, he had 18 touchdowns in 2020. That was definitely coming down. Went down to 11. So I would say a safe number for him is an eight touchdown floor. When you’re looking at yards, people are going to ask me this, “Oh, what do you think for yardage? What’s he going to do for yardage?” Very, very tough to gauge. Very, very tough to gauge because again, different offense, different schemes, and everything. I’m looking at 1,200 yards as a floor. I think he has a 1,200 yard receiving season. And again, even a 1,000-yard receiving season is good for a new team, new office due to the situation. Eight touchdowns, 1200 yards for Davante Adams. His targets are going to come down. How much? What again you’re looking at Waller… He was the top receiver back in 2020.
And I said he’s what? 145 in targets? He’s still there. Renfrow is still there had 128 last year. I’m looking at 140 targets for Adams. Assuming everything goes well, 140 targets. I’m looking at about 95 receptions. So it’s going to go down from 123 to 95. So I’ve gone and projected to have a significant decline this year for fantasy football. So again, the big question is, should you draft Davante Adams for me, it’s a pass. For you guys, if you guys like him, if you believe in Carr. I don’t believe in Carr. You guys know I don’t like Derek Carr. I don’t think he’s that good. If he was that good, he would’ve done a lot more over the past, how many years is it now? Six, seven years. Just did nothing. So I’m going to go ahead and pass on Davante Adams.
And again, this is breaking it down for you. Looking at the analyst, looking at, at what he did last year. Looking at what the other offensive weapons did and then still being there. Now again, we’re going to have to see this is pre-NFL Draft and free agencies kind of going. So I don’t know whether what other shifts are going to happen, but the way it is right now, assuming Waller is there, assuming Renfrow is there, assuming everything is the way kind of it is right now, I still do see a decline for Davante Adams from last year and I’ve projected it out.
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