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Fantasy Football Running Backs that are overvalued for this upcoming season. The Counselor gives you 6 names to be cautious about.
1. Dalvin Cook
He’s in the top 10 across the board. And you’ve heard me, and I sound like a broken record. And trust me guys, there’s going to be other running backs here that you have not heard me say they’re overvalued. Trust me. But this guy is completely overvalued. The guy I’m talking about is Dalvin Cook. Okay. Dalvin Cook is beyond overvalued. I’ll tell you why. Dalvin Cook has not finished a season in three years. He fell apart near the end of last season. In fact, if you may know it or not, in his first season, he only played four games. The second season he played, he played 11 games, and last year, 14 games. This guy has not made a fantasy football playoff championship. Okay? He hasn’t. So why would I put him on my roster? Why would I invest in a guy that has never made the fantasy football championships or has never finished a full season? I wouldn’t, and it makes me so angry considering this guy’s also threatening a holdout. Mattison’s the starter there. I’m telling you guys right now. If I’m the Minnesota Vikings, I would not pay Dalvin Cook. There’s so much fantasy football hatred I have for this guy, how he’s beyond overrated. I’m not trusting him. I’m sorry guys. I’m staying far, far away from Dalvin Cook. He blew his load last year. There’s no way he’s going to put up these type of numbers again. I’m telling you. So Dalvin Cook is beyond overvalued, sitting at number five on the consensus rankings, ahead of guys like Derek Henry. Are you crazy? Ahead of guys like Todd Gurley, ahead of guys like Leonard Fournette, ahead of guys like David Johnson. This is just ludicrous. It’s crazy. Ahead of Josh Jacobs, I don’t agree with it at all. And the fact that this is like an industry standard, all the magazines print out with these types of publications, it’s crazy.
Now, let’s talk about credibility before we get to the second guy. I want to talk a little bit about credibility. Last year, I was the guy that told you, “Hey, Landry will outperform Odell.” And what did people do? In the magazines, Odell Beckham was top-five running back on the mainstream consensus ratings. All the white-collar analysts, all those guys, all those jerks told you, Odell Beckham, round one, not once, not twice, but three years in a row. And I said, “Landry will outperform Baker Mayfield.” So there’s some credit to me, guys, so you’re not just talking to a guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about. I was the guy who called it then. Right? It was Le’Veon Bell, round one. I said, “No, stay away from Le’Veon Bell, round one.” He’s on a new team. He’s on the jets. He was a product of, listen carefully, he was a product of the offense of the Steelers. That’s the bottom line. Okay? So I do not trust Le’Veon Bell. That’s what I said, and everyone drafted him in round one.
Another example, Damien Williams, I’m like, “Do not drink the Damien Williams Kool-Aid, guys. Don’t drink it.” Years to wow us, we’re not wowed. Okay? And obviously, Damien Williams busted in the second round. So again, this is going to continue. I’m warning you guys yet again. Oh, also Antonio Brown round two, I said, “Stay away.” So I’m warning you guys. I’m warning you. Heed my warning. Get off the track on these players. There are better running backs to get early on. So again, I’ve got a good track record of avoiding guys with potential pitfalls.
2. Joe Mixon
Next guy here, beyond overrated, number seven on the consensus ranking. He’s the guy I’m talking about, it’s Joe Mixon. By the way, Dalvin Cook is sitting at number five to six, depending. And then Joe Mixon, number seven amongst running backs. Joe Mixon does not wow me. He finished 11th last year amongst running backs, and he is currently sitting seventh. This guy peaked in 2018, his numbers peaked. This was his peak. This was his climax. This was the big rah. I mean, I’m not excited.
Eight touchdowns was his peak year. Okay? 243 fantasy points, 1,168 yards, he hasn’t even eclipsed. He has not surpassed, he’s not hit the pinnacle that is 1200 rushing yards for a workhorse running back. Now you could say, “Well, Joe, the ceiling is there. They brought in Burrow. A. J. Green is going to be back, hopefully,” this and that. Yeah, I think Tee Higgins could be a sleeper there as well at the wide receiver position. And they’ve got some weapons. I’ll give them that, improved i-line slightly. Joe Mixon is primed for a good season, but do I trust the Bengals offense? No, I don’t. New quarterback? No, I’m going to stay away from that. And especially a guy that’s being drafted ahead of Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, and David Johnson, and David Montgomery, it’s insane. It’s ludicrous, and I’m staying away. Again peaking at 243 points. I don’t know what to tell you, man. This makes me angry. And again, this is in all publications. This guy is really touted and promoted to be this top seven running back when he’s really not that good. He’s okay, but again, he’s on the Bengals, and he’s peaked at 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns. Unacceptable.
3. Kenyan Drake
All right, the next guy here, and this is one of those guys that I think could have a high ceiling, could be a top-three running back, has that potential, and has that ceiling. The durability is there, so those are the credits to him. The knock’s to Kenyan Drake, who I’m talking about as an overvalued running back here. He’s sitting at number eight. Now, number eight is very high for me, guys. I would not touch Kenyan Drake, so that means he’s coming off the second round, early second round. Beyond, beyond overvalued. Now, let’s look at what he did last year. He had three good games. I encourage you guys to look them up. Okay? Around 24.2 points in week nine, he had a 32 plus 30, I don’t know what, a 30 plus game in week 50, a 30 plus game. So too, what I’m trying to make is he had three good games, one at 24 points, the other two over 30 in regards to PPR fate, as much as week 15 and 16. The point I’m trying to make is it doesn’t matter if he had 40, 50 points, he had three good games, three good games, guys in last year’s season where I was like, “Wow, this guy could have a little bit of upside, has a little bit of excitement.” Prior to that, guys, he’s done nothing. He’s done absolutely nothing over the past three years. Now, if you look at his three years when he was in Miami, I think he had like six receiving touchdowns, nine total rushing touchdowns, 1,358 yards. Guys, that’s nothing. That’s not something I’m going to get giddy and excited about, and roll out of my bed and say, “Oh, I’ve got to draft Kenyan Drake in the first round!” I mean, stay the hell away. Why would I do that? Why would I invest in the guy?
And by the way, I got to tell you, the Arizona Cardinals have zero. When I say zero, zero, zero integrity towards their running backs. They don’t care about their running backs. Look what they did to David Johnson last year. You have to take that under serious consideration if you decide to put Kenyan Drake on your roster. You have to look at it and say, “Okay, Kenyan Drake, he’s just not potentially going to be respected.” They’ve got Eno Benjamin there. He may make the team, may not draft in the seventh round. They’ve got Chase Edmonds. By the way, that week 50, at 38.6 points, just to let you know I messed up on that number. So looking at Kenyan Drake, I just don’t trust him. I don’t trust that offense. I don’t trust the coaching. Kingsbury’s a jerk. I mean, how can you take your starting running back and bench him? And that’s what I think he wants to do. He wants to phase out the old team, bring in the new team, and I get it. But he also got Deandre Hopkins who’s sitting there as a potential top-five guy. I don’t see the volume going to be there for him as well. That’s a whole other discussion on overvalued wide receivers we’ll get into. But again, the ceiling is there, but three games, guys. That’s it. That’s what you’re going on, and you’re drafting this guy as your technically RB1, for most cases, in the second round. I’m just going to stay away, right? Look out for Eno Benjamin as a late-round sleeper, guys. So definitely temper your expectations about Kenyan Drake. I just don’t trust him. I don’t trust the offense, don’t trust Kingsbury, don’t trust Drake, temporary expectations. He’s sitting at number eight on the consensus. I’m definitely staying away.
4. Austin Ekeler
Next thing I want to talk about, there’s some drama surrounding him. He’s sitting at number 11, number nine on the consensus, just behind Kenyan Drake and it’s Austin Ekeler. There’s some drama on my Instagram. I posted that he sucks, and I can’t believe that Austin Ekeler is being drafted, and in the top 10 ahead of studs like let it Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, guys like that because he’s not a truthful workhorse. So I posted that, that he sucks. Ekeler chimed in asking why. I explained that he only had three rushing touchdowns, 500 yards-ish, and 132 attempts. I don’t think he’s a workhorse.
And then he says he’s ultra-efficient in the receiving game, and there’s some back and forth. Twitter blew up. A lot of haters, white-collar haters came in and talked crap about me. Listen, I don’t care. I don’t think he should be a top 10 guy, no matter what. He’s not a full, true workhorse, years to wow us. We were not wowed before this. I would temper my expectations on Austin Ekeler. There’s a reason Joshua Kelly was acquired by the Chargers. Now. He was a fourth-rounder, and he doesn’t look amazing and dynamic on tape, but this is something you definitely need to be aware of when you’re looking at Austin Ekeler is that Joshua Kelly factor, and then the quarterback factor, and all these different situations. I just really, really don’t trust Austin Ekeler for the season. Be cautious, temper your expectations. And Austin Ekeler’s a guy that I will not be drafting, especially if you’re investing a second-round pick on a guy that was a backup for years. And again, I’m all about the underdog stepping up. And he did step up last year, but he’s not full true workhorse running back. And I need that when I’m drafting a first or second-round pick. I’d never invest in PPR guys. Kamara is a guy that’s always been good, but not a guy on my radar because he’s always part of a committee. And I think that’s the same thing with both Drake and Ekeler, so staying away.
5. Nick Chubb
All right, number 11 here on the consensus rankings, another guy that’s completely overvalued as Nick Chubb. You guys hear me talk about this all the time. Nick Chubb is probably one of the most overvalued running backs in the history of overvalued running backs, sitting at 11. Now he’s coming off late first round, early second sometimes in the 12 person league. And people are hoarding him up like he is the best thing since sliced bread. Listen, I’m staying away, and I’ll tell you why. And I’ve said this, and I don’t care if I sound like a broken record. And again, I’m good at predicting guys that could potentially bust. I’m really good at that. I’ve got a really good track record at that. And I don’t see the situation going well for Nick Chubb. He is being drafted as if Kareem Hunt is sitting the first 10 weeks of the NFL season. He’s not. And he’s being drafted predicate on last year’s finish. He is being put on this pedestal, and Kareem Hunt is basically going to be a water boy is the thought process behind this, and I totally disagree with this.
Nick Chubb is the most overvalued running back in overvalued running back history. Yes, he’s a great runner. Yes, he’s a great talent, but he doesn’t catch the ball very well. That’s why they got Kareem Hunt there. And Kareem Hunt is a superior running back. If you guys remember, don’t buy the reasons [inaudible 00:10:00]. He was the rushing leader in 2017. How do people forget that? How do you ignore the fact that Kareem Hunt is an elite talent? And whenever there’s an elite talent running back running beside and elite talent running back, I stay away.
Just to remind you, 1,327 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, eight touchdowns on the ground, 53 receptions for 455 yards, and three receiving touchdowns back in 2017 for Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt actually has, what did he have? 295 PPR fantasy points, a solid production, a solid campaign, and 272 rushing attempts, so the volume is there for Kareem Hunt. He is the guy that should be the workhorse technically, on this team. And I understand they’ve got a coach that’ll run. Stefanski is going to run Nick Chubb, and I get it. But how do you ignore Kareem Hunt? I can’t.
6. Clyde Edwards- Helaire
Okay, the last guy here that’s an overvalued running back being drafted mid to late second round is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. My concern is this, I don’t trust the Chiefs they throw. In the year, they threw a lot. And the year that Kareem Hunt, as we just went to his stats, which is kind of convenient we’re running into this, Pat Mahomes wasn’t there. He wasn’t throwing as much as he was. He wasn’t there. It was a different offense, different team. Kareem Hunt had that year. Last year, in regard to attempts, there were only 212 attempts between both McCoy and Damien Williams. Mind you, Damien Williams only played like 11 games or something like that. But the fact of the matter is this, there just wasn’t enough volume to justify that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to get a ton of volume as a past catching running back. And I heard they’re going to play Damien Williams, okay?
And 58 receptions, 212 attempts, that total between McCoy and Damien Williams combined, 50 plus receptions and 212 attempts do not equal mathematically that Clyde Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be a workhorse running back, or even at PPR monster. As long as Damien Williams is there, he will be a thorn in the side of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. and it’s going to be a very, very annoying situation. So, to me, I’m probably going to stay away from Clyde Edwards-Helaire this season. He comes with a major risk, and I don’t see the ceiling because I think there’s a limited, like I see a limited ceiling, right, because of the fact that I don’t see a lot of attempts going that way. So another guy that I’m staying away, and I consider him an overvalued fantasy football running back.
And that’s it, guys. There are some overvalued running backs for you guys. Early Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I’m not drafting any of these guys. It’s up to you guys, and I’m sure two or three of these guys are going to be phenomenal, but you’re rolling the dice. Who is it going to be? Who’s going to bust? But I assure you, some of these guys, I’d say most of these guys, will not finish top 10. There’s going to be other guys emerging. Jonathan Taylor, possibly, if he emerges. There are other guys, Josh Jacobs in the top 10, David Johnson, David Montgomery. There are so many more guys that can crack that top 10 and push these guys out because they’re going to be true workhorse running backs. So stay away from these guys. Okay?
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