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Fantasy Football players to avoid this season. The Counselor and the Bald Guy give you 6 players to really watch out for as they could really bust! (Audio Transcription)
Joseph Robert:
Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert, the Fantasy Football Counselor online here with Tim, the bald guy.
Tim:
Yes. How’s it going, everybody?
Joseph Robert:
Tim, a lot of people have been asking about you. I think we missed one episode this past week. A lot of people asking, “Where’s Tim? We miss Tim.” Or, “Is the other bald man, Tom Santanello, replacing Tim?” Everybody, a lot of concern here for you.
Tim:
Tom and I are going to fight, I told you before, there can be only one.
Joseph Robert:
There were going to be two bald guys. I’m going to shave my head. There’ll be three bald guys.
Tim:
Soon we’re going to rule the world.
Joseph Robert:
Absolutely.
Tim:
But no, I mean, I’m just, I’m in and out, man. You know how it is. You get busy with other things. I get busy with things. You get busy with things and then just trying to connect consistently has been a chore right now. But we’re going to make it happen.
Joseph Robert:
Life’s been busy. Things seem to be opening back up. We’ve got to get you back in the studio soon enough and start doing our regular studio show. Maybe July even.
Tim:
That’s it, man.
Joseph Robert:
Soon enough, maybe even June. All right Tim, let’s talk about this. We’re talking about the top six players to avoid. That’s what we’re talking about. This was really hard to do because there’s a ton of players to avoid, and to know exactly who to avoid and the players to actually draft, head on over to thefantasyfootballcounselor.com. Get the 16 round draft solution. I give you all of the optimal players to draft in each round … breakouts, sleepers, everything you need to dominate. It’s like having me at the draft with you. ADP consensus rankings will not help you, Tim. They just won’t help you.
Tim:
No, I don’t go by ADPs at all, man. Do you want to just fire it off right here? We’ll just get started and I’ll say my first one. You’re saying it’s Melvin Gordon. I’m saying it’s the entire Denver running back committee. That’s the problem right now. It was a committee last year with just Lindsay and Freeman. Now you’re throwing Melvin Gordon in the mix too? There is no clear cut number one on this team. There is no guy that’s going to get 70, 80% of the snaps. It’s just all over the place. Unless you’re taking one of these guys super late, like sixth round or better, I wouldn’t touch any of them.
1. Melvin Gordon
Joseph Robert:
No, I’m definitely staying away. Melvin Gordon should be the primary back there. But when you look at the attempt breakdown with these two guys, last year with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, 224 attempts to Phillip Lindsay, 132 to Royce Freeman. I would assume a bulk of the Royce Freeman attempts … let’s say 100 of those go-to Melvin Gordon. Then maybe he shaves off 100 of the Phillip Lindsay attempts, so now Phillip Lindsay’s at 124 attempts. Now you’re still looking at Melvin Gordon as a floor of what, like 220 attempts. That’s not enough for me. I don’t think he’s going to get the volume that we demand out of a guy like Melvin Gordon. Phillip Lindsay’s going to be a pest. He’s not going to go away. 100%, I’m staying away from Melvin Gordon. 150%.
Tim:
Yeah. I did these notes probably about a week, week and a half ago, and I tried to make them as short as possible. I could be wrong here, but I’m pretty sure these numbers are correct in what I’m going to say. Last year, Melvin Gordon had 612 rushing, 296 receiving. Phillip Lindsay had 1000 rushing, 196 receiving. Royce Freeman was right there too man, with 496 and 256. There is no clear cut number one, and you’re saying that Gordon should even take the number one position as far as a share, but I’m telling you, this is going to be all over the map. I wouldn’t go with any of these guys. Like I said, sixth round or later, I might kind of think of taking one of them, but I think too many people are going to overpay on all of these guys.
Joseph Robert:
I think this is going to annoy the heck out of me. So I’m just going to stay away. That’s why he is one of the top six fantasy football, 2020 players to avoid. Tim, there are just so many players to avoid. We should have made this list bigger. We just want to keep it bite-sized. Maybe we’ll do another list later on.
Tim:
Well, you almost have to put a disclaimer here, because your disclaimer has to be, yeah, there’s a lot of guys that I just don’t want to pay too high a price for. You can say yeah, I’m avoiding them for that reason. In fact, you are going to mention one. We talked about him earlier. But for the most part, these are guys that I see reasons other than just, “I don’t want to pay that price.” There are reasons. One of my guys is Zeke, and I don’t know if you want to get into him right now, or you want to save him, but I’m not taking Zeke at that high price that everybody’s paying.
Joseph Robert:
Yeah, let’s save him to end because I think … I’m going to say that he’s not a player to avoid. Let’s save him as the end as an honorable mention. You could dive into why. The next guy here, number two. Melvin Gordon, number one.
2. Dalvin Cook
Number two, we got Dalvin Cook. Now, I’m going to stay away. I’m going to avoid him severely. I keep talking about this. I’ve done videos on this. I keep talking about it. He’s going top five, pretty much everywhere. It just … ADPs, coming off … the fifth guy off the board. You see your standard guys come off and then you’re him. You see CMC Barkley, whatever the order of that is. Then you see … Who else is there? Zeke Elliott comes off, then maybe … Henry even gets pushed after Dalvin Cook, believe it or not.
Joseph Robert:
But the bottom line I’m trying to make here is, he’s always coming off four or five, in and around there. Not paying it for a guy that’s never finished a season. Now a lot of people are saying, “Joe, you’re crazy. He had a great season last year.” I don’t care. He fell apart near the end of the season. At the end of the day, I don’t like that, Tim. I don’t like a guy that hasn’t finished a season and has never been to a Fantasy Football Playoff. That’s it. He’s never been to a Fantasy Football Championships. 250 attempts last year, but he literally blew his load. That was it. He was trying to get paid that big contract. He knows it’s not going to happen. I know it’s a contract year for him yet again. I just don’t see this guy finishing another season, Tim, and he fell apart near the end of the season yet again. He will fall again, and when he does, I will have Alexander Mattison there.
Tim:
Yeah. I don’t know, man. We don’t see eye to eye on the cookie thing for sure. I understand. He is a super valuable player. When he is on the field, he’s amazing. He puts up great numbers. The reliability is a question mark, and that’s what you always talk about, why you avoid him. I still think if I can get him and I can keep him until six, eight weeks … Unfortunately with a guy like him, you never foresee a drop or an injury coming, but if I can keep him and he gives me a good six to eight weeks right off the get go, I would look to trade him for something nice and sweet.
Joseph Robert:
See, a lot of people are saying, grab Dalvin Cook and handcuff Mattison. I look at it the other way. I’d rather get a Derrick Henry and then get Mattison late.
Tim:
Mattison late, yeah, yeah.
Joseph Robert:
You’ll have two RB ones when Cook goes down, and he will mark my words. Dalvin Cook will go down this season. I assure you he will because I watched him play, man. The way he runs, he gravitates to the sidelines. He plays super safe. I’m telling you, this guy knows he’s injury-prone. He’s going to get hurt. He is another guy that’s a product of the offense. He’s good, but he’s not that good. Similar to the way Le’veon Bell was with the Steelers, where he did really well and then he went on the Jets, not so well. Maybe it was a year off or whatever, that Bell had, but Connor and [Dejuan 00:07:45] always do the same thing that Bell did pretty much in Steeltown when they were there, a product of the offense.
Joseph Robert:
Put Alexander Mattison in and give him the same attempts that Cook had. Mattison had 100 attempts, 4.6 yards per carry. Cook had 250 attempts, 4.5 yards per carry. Cook had 462 yards. Cook had 1135. If you look at that, you just double that, Tim. 462 times two, you add about a thousand yards. Add another 50 attempts where … Cook had 250 attempts, right? Get more than double the attempts and just slightly over in yardage, right? Mattison could do the exact same thing, I assure you, maybe even better than Dalvin Cook. But people think you’re crazy when I say that. But they will see this year when Cook goes down, Mattison comes in. Everybody’ll be rushing to try to grab him. Yep, just do the math. It’s all mathematical here sometimes, okay?
Tim:
That’s it.
Joseph Robert:
All right. We’ve got Melvin Gordon, Cook. Who is number three, coming in at number three as a Fantasy Football player to avoid, Tim?
3. Nick Chubb
Tim:
This is the one that we talk about a lot. Once again, this is a running back committee and it is two very capable guys, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. We’re saying, “Avoid Nick Chubb.” Really, it’s kind of avoid both of these guys unless you get them at the right price.
Joseph Robert:
Yeah, because you’re going to get half the workload out of both these guys. Let’s just say you wait and get Nick Chubb, let’s say sixth to the eighth round of your draft, right, around six to eight. Then you start him. You flex him. You’re still getting a guy that’s going to potentially get only half of the volume, even if it’s in PPR, half the points. Now I’ve mentioned this. I’m going to keep preaching this until it sinks in. Nick Chubb is not worth a first-round pick. I could be wrong. They could completely bench Kareem Hunt and they’d say, “Hey man, Hunt, you’re going to sit down on the bench. You’re going to be sidelined. It’s all going to be Chubb.” That could very well happen. If that’s the case, that’s good. But I don’t see them benching Nick Chubb. He’s just too good. Or sorry, Kareem Hunt. He’s just too good. Nick Chubb’s the guy. Again, I’m pretty good at determining which guys to avoid. I did it last year with Odell Beckham. Antonio Brown, the second round, everybody said. They also said Damien Williams, second round. They also said a bunch of players. I can’t even think of them right now. But I’m telling you, I’m really good at dodging these bullets when it comes to avoiding players, and Chubb is the guy that doesn’t seem viable as a first-round pick to me at all.
Tim:
Absolutely. I totally agree with that. These guys are a really nice one, two punch, so when it comes to playing football games, I think they’re a great tandem, a great duo, whatever you want to call it. But when it comes to Fantasy, no. I think that Kareem Hunt is just way too capable of taking a lot of the passing and a lot of the yardage away that way, even the short touchdown passes. Just, it’s an avoid situation all around for sure.
Joseph Robert:
If you look at the trend, like I said, six out of the eight games in PPR, Kareem Hunt outscored Nick Chubb last season. That’s signs. That’s a history that shows when these guys are together, Chubb will lose that volume. People are drafting Chubb, thinking he’s going to be the first 10 weeks without Kareem Hunt there. They think it’s the same type of Chubb, the same type of projection, right? You don’t draft it based on where he finished. You draft it on what the potential outcome could be, and that is a significant decline if Kareem Hunt gets the work, which he should. Stay away. All right, next guy.
Tim:
Do you want to say one of yours? I mean, Chubb was kind of both of ours.
4. Lamar Jackson
Joseph Robert:
It was kind of both of ours here, so I’ll talk about my guy here. I’m avoiding him. Personally, I’m avoiding all quarterbacks early. I’m talking like, up to round five. The four quarterbacks that come off the board in the first five rounds are typically Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes. They’re coming off round two to three, okay? 12 person league, one point PPR league, just to let you know. Then you see Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott coming off in around round five. I’m going to avoid all those guys, but the guy I’m specifically talking was Lamar Jackson. I understand the temptation to go with the top point-getter last year at the quarterback position. I totally understand that, but you got to understand that second-round pick, right? You can load up on a solid running back at a scarce position and go with that robust RB strategy and load up on running backs and avoid the quarterbacks. You get a ton of value round seven. There’s Josh Allen, there’s Matt Ryan, there’s Russell Wilson … a ton of value, Tim, seventh round and up. I’m staying away from Lamar Jackson. Are you drafting him? What do you think?
Tim:
I’m not drafting him at that price, but I understand why some people would do it. What did he get last year? Over 400 points, wasn’t it?
Joseph Robert:
It was ridiculous.
Tim:
Yeah, so I said, even if he does have a decline, even if he gets 350 points, that’s still better than 95% of your fantasy players. I understand the allure of grabbing this guy early, hoping that he’s still going to have another tremendous year … maybe not as great as last year. It doesn’t matter. He is good for 20 to 30 points on average any week, no problem. I understand the allure, but yes, I don’t want to pay that kind of price either. But he’s comparable to an RV one, man. He’s putting up those big dog numbers.
Joseph Robert:
That’s the problem. Here’s the deal. He had 415+ Fantasy points, 415.68. Now when you look at it, and that’s 176 attempts, he pretty much … 1,206 rushing yards. He was like, sixth in rushing yards amongst running backs. Let me repeat this again, Tim. Sixth in rushing yards amongst running backs. It was Henry, Chubb, McCaffrey, Zeke, Chris Carson, and then Lamar Jackson. I’m looking at this guy and I’m saying, okay, 176 attempts. That’s a lot, and you’re putting yourself at risk. You got to deal with a guy that could potentially get himself hurt if he’s running that many times. Not only that, if he does continue to run that much and he does produce, yes, the numbers will be there, but they just drafted Dobbins, which means they got another running back that could run the ball and take away some of those running attempts. That helps him with the preservation of the body, and he may not get injured as easily because he’s not risking himself, but it’s also going to take away from the attempts and those rushing yards and lower his points. It’s kind of a lose, lose situation when you look at Lamar. Again, that whole, what goes up must come down thing. I’m just going to stay away, man. A second-round pick, you know. I’m not touching a second-round quarterback. No way.
Tim:
Yeah. As I say, I understand it from a point per game sort of thing, but I just wouldn’t want to take that risk either. I say it all the time, too. I love him as a quarterback, but running quarterbacks always scare me. I love the fact that they can put up those great points, but they do open themselves up to injury more.
Joseph Robert:
All right. I’ve given you my guys. We had some crossover. Mine was Cook, Chubb, and Lamar. You’ve given us Melvin, Chubb, and who else do you get here?
5. Ezekiel Elliott
Tim:
Now I’ll give everybody a punch in the nuts or they’ll return a punch in the nuts to me. I am staying away from Zeke Elliott.
Joseph Robert:
Really?
Tim:
I love him. I love him as a player. I know he’s a hard-nosed runner. This guy can get things done, but I did not like seeing Pollard come in so much last year. I think that trend should only continue, not to mention the mouths that are there to feed. I just, I don’t see Zeke being worth that top-three pick. He’s still probably going to produce really great points, but I’m not going to risk that much on him. If I could pick him up really late one, early two, yeah. I love him, but I just don’t want to take him at that early price. I think Pollard’s going to cut in too much.
Joseph Robert:
Listen, I think he’s still solid. I do have that concern. The Pollard effect is kind of in the back of my mind. But last year, I mean, 301 attempts, right? The coach who was there, Garrett’s not going to be there anymore. But the guy got paid, right? The guy got paid. They got to use him. They want to win, right? If they want to win, they put their best player out there. I still think he eats … 301 attempts last year. I would think even if it drops maybe to 260 as kind of like a floor forum, 1,357 yards, maybe he drops to 1,200. 12 touchdowns, maybe it drops to 10. But he’s still the guy, and I still think he gets work. Tony Carter only came in for what, 86 attempts? He’ll be used. I mean, it is concerning, but I still think Zeke’s the man. I’m going to try to dance around him if I can because I’m going with Saquon if I go in around first or second. Then I may get Henry in around there … Because I got Henry ranked higher than Zeke right now. I may end up getting Henry, and if not later first round, I’ll go Jacobs or someone like that. But I’m going to try to dance around Zeke if I can with Saquon and Henry, maybe even Jacobs. But if he’s there and it’s my turn and I’m going forth, Henry’s gone and Saquon, I may have to grab him. I’m going robust RB, so I’ll be okay. But yeah, I can definitely see the concern there. I’m not going to avoid him possibly, but I’ll dance around him. How about that?
Tim:
Yeah. Yeah, and I get it. I mean, the guy’s a beast and I don’t think he’s going to fall off the map. I just think when you’re paying one of those really high prices, I don’t know. To me, there are too many questions.
6. Rob Gronkowski
Joseph Robert:
Yeah. The next guy here, Rob Gronkowski, you have him here. I mean he’s big risk.
Tim:
Yeah. I mean, I just don’t see him being what he used to be. Of course, he’s a big dude. He’s got great hands. He can get it done. He’s more than capable. But look at what Tampa Bay has put together this year, man. There is just way too many mouths to feed there now. He’s going to be a solid tight end, but he’s not going to be a top-five. Nope.
Joseph Robert:
Yeah. That’s a big concern to me. When I look at his stats throughout the years … I mean, he hasn’t stayed healthy. This is crazy. You’re going to be like, “Oh my God, I can’t believe it.” He has not completed a full 16 game season since 2011. Can you believe that?
Tim:
I can, actually.
Joseph Robert:
Crazy. Finished 14 in 2017, and 11 in 2018. But yeah, not a complete 16 game starting. He started all 16 games, since 2011. That’s insane.
Tim:
It seems like the norm for tight ends, man. It’s very hard for them to have a run of 16 full games every year. Not many guys can do it. So yeah, Gronkowski’s going to be good. He’s still going to get some nice points. He’s going to make some amazing plays. He’s great for the team. He’s not going to be amazing for your Fantasy team.
Joseph Robert:
Right. So guys, I mean, that’s it, Tim. Anything else you want to add? There’s a ton of players to avoid. I just made a quick little top six list. There’s a ton of other guys I’m staying away from for risks and stuff like that. There’s so many players to avoid. There’s a lot, especially guys that are not in committees and stuff like that, or guys that haven’t performed. Guys are in committees, sorry, I’m going to be avoiding, and the guys that haven’t performed throughout the years. A ton of players to avoid, but I just want to do a quick little mini list for you guys, have some fun here today.
Tim:
Yeah, and most of these guys that we mentioned are considered some of your first-rounders. I think four out of our six are first-round picks in a lot of cases. These are the guys you’ve got to be cautious about.
Joseph Robert:
Got to be aware. That’s it, Tim. Leave your questions below, guys. Tim, thanks for joining us. People are getting concerned. Are you going to be here … We got to get to our Monday to Thursday shows. We’re going to make it consistent so you’ll be back more often.
Tim:
Absolutely, yeah. For now, much love, everybody.
Joseph Robert:
Yeah, much love from Tim, the bald guy, the real bald guy. Thanks for being here guys. Smash it thumbs up, get 16 rounds, and we are out. Avoid these guys. We’ll talk
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