Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Impact and Outlook 2020

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Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Impact and outlook going into the 2020 season. The Counselor breaks it down for you and lets you know if he would draft him or not! (Audio Transcription)

Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert, that fantasy football counselor. In this video, we’re talking about Aaron Jones and his fantasy football impact and outlook for fantasy football 2020.

Aaron Jones, an absolute stud back in 2019, we’re going to break down and I’m going to give you guys all the information about him here and a verdict on if I would draft him going into 2020 fantasy football. My thoughts, my feelings, my strategies, my research, everything you need to know on Aaron Jones going into the 2020 season.

Before I get into that, guys, make sure you guys leave a comment below after I reach my verdict at the end of this video. I’m doing the impact series because I want to break down each individual player and give you guys the best possible information so you guys can make an educated decision on if you’re going to draft them or not, and then I’ll let you know if I would consider drafting them as well. So leave a comment below, let me know. I want to get your feedback on if you would or would not draft Aaron Jones in 2020 fantasy football. Remember to dominate your leagues, get the 16 round draft solution.

All right, let’s deep dive into Aaron Jones. A guy I met a few years ago, I was at some conference coming down the elevator in the hotel room and there he was with Jamal Williams, both running backs with the Packers there. A super nice guy, I think Aaron Jones actually ended up calling me sir a few times, which made me feel really old. But the guy’s an absolutely super nice guy based on my experience with him and actually meeting him. Now, that doesn’t matter, meeting him, a nice guy. What does that mean? It means nothing. All we care about is fantasy points here, right? And if we should draft him or not. So let’s talk about him. Last year, second PPR, pretty amazing, 15th in attempts, which isn’t that good. When I look at a running back, especially a guy I’m investing in this case, probably a second or third-round pick in, right? He’s going to go pretty high. I would look at a guy that’s going to get a lot of attempts, a lot of volume and attempts.

Aaron Jones Stats

I want 300 attempts. I’m just greedy like that. So 15th in attempts last year with 236, he had 1,084 rushing yards, which isn’t bad. He cracked the thousand rushing yard mark, which is good, but it put him in 11th amongst running backs in that category. 4.6 yards per carry, not bad as well. Now, where he excelled, where he got a lot of his points from is obviously the touchdown. 16 touchdowns on the ground, which is phenomenal. He completely surpassed the year before where he had only eight touchdowns on the ground, and he had three receiving touchdowns in 2020, on 68 targets for 49 receptions at 474 receiving yards. So he had a great year. There’s no doubt about it. Now the big question is, is he going to duplicate that going into 2020?

And the short answer is just, I’m going to keep right to the point, you guys know my style, is absolutely not. This is a career year for Aaron Jones. This was a year where he absolutely completely excelled to a pinnacle year where the Packers ran the ball more than they typically do. And of course, Davante Adams was hurt last year, new year coming in now they’ve acquired AJ Dillon, and who’s AJ Dillon? The guy’s out of Boston college, he’s an absolute … I don’t want to say stud, but he’s really good. At six foot, 247, he’s a big boy, 247 pounds, okay? Now the thing about him is that he was a workhorse at Boston college, 5.3 yards per carry on 318 attempts, 1,685 yards, 14 touchdowns. And he caught a few balls. He had 13 receptions. So the guy’s a pretty versatile back. Obviously, probably not as versatile as Aaron Jones, not as compact, obviously, this guy’s a lot bigger, AJ Dillon, but he was drafted for a reason.

And I don’t understand why, but I’m assuming they probably don’t want to pay Aaron Jones going into the next season or the season after, as he’s coming up eventually for a big contract, and a lot of teams are doing it. I was talking to Tom Santanello. If you guys haven’t watched the fire and ice show, we do it every Wednesday. He’s a pro football insider who got a lot of good insight. And he’s talking about these replacements were running backs, you know, why do you got to pay them? Especially if they’re not the Zeke Elliots and Saquon Barkleys of the world. Aaron Jones is good, but he’s not ultra-elite. He’s not the Saquon Barkley of the league, right? So instead of paying Aaron Jones, why not get some young talent, see how they do? For example, right now the Colts did that too. They got Jonathan Taylor, they may phase out Marlon Mack. A lot of teams doing that. We have the Ravens, they’ve got Dobbins. They’re going to phase out Ingram, and same with every other team, Clyde Edwards [inaudible 00:04:57] there in KC. So why invest in a running back that’s mediocre, right? Guys like Damien Williams, guys like Marlon Mack, who just suck, when you can get guys that have a higher ceiling and you get them in as rookies, you invest a slightly earlier draft pick, obviously, Chiefs invested a first-round pick in Clyde Edwards, right? And so on. The other guys invested second-round picks, this type of thing, but why not just do that and get guys that have higher ceilings that could be better than their current running backs instead of paying their current running backs?

2020 Projection

So Aaron Jones is in a situation where I think he may get phased out. So he may work hard this year, obviously, but if Dylan is there, he may steal some of the goal line work, especially if the Packers genuinely believe that Dylan is the future, which it looks like he potentially is if he’s really good. So when you’re looking at Aaron Jones, man, I got some serious question marks. Number one, coming off a pinnacle season. Number two, the 236 temps, that’s having a pinnacle season. So with AJ Dillon there, right? And assuming that Rogers throws the ball a lot more now, Rogers had a terrible season last year overall. I mean, I want him throwing it a little bit more. He only threw for 4,002 yards, 569 attempts. I’d like to see him go back to the 2016 year where he had 40 touchdowns instead of the 25 to 26 touchdowns where it’s kind of averaging over the past couple of years.

When he’s healthy and he’s in the groove, we’re looking at 40 touchdowns over 4,500 passing yards. I’m assuming he’s healthy this year. Aaron Rogers, he’s got a little bit of chip on his shoulder, right? People are like, “Oh, this guy is done. He’s washed up.” And they’ve got Lazard now, who’s probably in the groove as the wide receiver too. They’ve got a healthy Davante Adams, either is going to throw the ball a lot more. And I think they’re going to integrate Dylan a lot more, which is going to be a problem for Aaron Jones. Like I said, 236 temps, that’s him peaking. So, that could come down, okay? The 16 touchdowns, that’s definitely coming down. There’s no way in heck he’s going to get 16 touchdowns again. I could be completely wrong, but let’s get to the verdict here because you want to know if I’m drafting him and if you guys should draft him. Ultimately it comes down to what you guys believe, your gut feeling, your research. I’m going to give you guys my facts. And again, the factor is, I think they’re going to throw the ball a lot more. I think Dylan’s going to get integrated a lot more, you know, Williams, not even forgetting about the backup Williams here. He’s going to get some work again, probably this upcoming season. So when you’re looking at Aaron Jones and my verdict, I’m going to say I’m going to stay away from Aaron Jones for fantasy.

Now, there’s a ton of other running backs, Leonard Fournette David Johnson, David Montgomery, Todd Gurley, Josh Jacobs. There are a couple of other guys too as well in and around the same range. And even after, because you can get David Johnson in the fourth round, which is insane. This guy’s the workhorse running back. Now here’s a fact with David Johnson here, Hyde had 242 attempts. Carlos Hyde, who sucks, had 242 attempts last year with the Texans. That is more than what Aaron Jones has. So if the Texans gave 242 attempts to Hyde, I’m expecting at least 250 as a floor for David Johnson. And he’s going to catch the ball a lot, and I can get him in the fourth round. Now with Aaron Jones, I’m just not seeing him get this type of volume. Again, it’s not going to happen with Dylan there. I see Dylan being a factor. I see Dylan being worked in, and the fact that they acquired Dylan tells me they don’t believe in Aaron Jones. So it’s very simple. Sometimes fantasy doesn’t have to be that complicated. You’ve got to look at the situation, you’ve got to look at who’s there, who’s getting phased in, who’s getting phased out, who’s due for a contract, who’s not? Who’s got a contract hangover, who doesn’t? Christian McCaffrey, a perfect example of a contract hangover. New coach, new quarterback, an entirely different situation over there with the Panthers. So Christian McCaffrey’s the guy I’m just going to avoid, especially at first overall, are you kidding me? I’d rather take the ceiling of Saquon Barkley, who’s behind an improved O-line who could definitely thrive with the Giants this year.

So you’ve got to look at the whole situation when you’re looking at a fantasy football draft strategy, and you’ve got to be picky when you’re selecting a player, no matter who it is on your roster. And this year, and I keep imploring it and I keep saying it and I keep preaching it, I implore you guys to go with the robust RB strategy. Meaning you go with three or four running backs in the first three or four rounds. It’s not a crazy thought, it’s actually very practical. I definitely suggest you guys do this because then, I’m telling you, if you wait until the sixth round, you’re not going to get a good running back. You’re going to end up with the Phillip Lindsays and Jordan Howards of the world. I’m going to keep going to that example, right? You don’t want the Phillip Lindsays and Jordan Howards of the world. You don’t want guys in committees. And if you invest in this guy, which he’s pretty much top 10, the consensus, because last year he finished in the top 10. I mean, they have brought them down a little bit. They don’t have the second. So they didn’t directly copy and paste because they know Zeke and guys like CMC and Saquon are obviously better. But Aaron Jones is a guy that I definitely would not consider drafting this year, 100% not drafting.

There’s just other guys that aren’t going to be affected by a pass-first potential offense and AJ Dillon. I’m going to keep hammering this in so you guys understand. And one more thing here, when you look at his stats, this is the only season he finished. In 2017, 2018, he didn’t finish those seasons. He played 12 games. He didn’t finish those seasons. So durability also probably a concern with Aaron Jones. So be cautious there as well if you are considering him. Again, I’m not paying the early whatever he’s going to ADP second round or whatever he’s going third round. Okay, I’m just not going to do it. I’d rather have a guy with a higher ceiling, like Josh Jacobs even, right? Or even a guy like Leonard Fournette, who is definitely due to get paid as well, who is the sole workhorse running back, okay? So look at those types of guys, guys that are in minimal committees, and avoid potential pitfall situations like this one with Aaron Jones, okay? Verdict, stay away.

Are you guys going to draft Aaron Jones? Hopefully not after what I just said, and of course get the 16 round draft solution, the absolute game-changer, a link here below on YouTube or, guys, go to thefantasyfootballcounselor.com. And of course, guys, follow on audio. There is a link here below, subscribe on iTunes and Spotify. Thanks for being here, guys. And I am out.

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