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Chris Carson Fantasy Impact and Outlook for 2020. The Counselor lets you know if Carson is worth a roster spot for this season and if you should consider drafting him. We break it down for you. (Transcription)
Welcome to show everybody. Joseph Robert, The Fantasy Football Counselor. Today we’re talking about Chris Carson and his Fantasy Football impact for 2020. His outlook, everything you need to know, and if you should draft Chris Carson for Fantasy Football 2020. I’m doing this Impact Series so that you guys can get a competitive advantage, that you can look at every single player broken down. Their ADP, the depth chart, who else is there in that committee. Everything you need to know, so you guys can make a better-educated decision on if you should draft that particular player. Today, we’re talking about Seattle Seahawks’ Chris Carson. I’m going to dive really into him here and give you guys my verdict at the end. At the end of every video, I give you the verdict, right, if I would actually draft a player for Fantasy Football 2020. So it’s a big video here for you, and I try to keep them short. I try to keep them up to 10, 12 minutes. Short bites that have information, packed with information though, right? In short segments. So Chris Carson, let’s discuss it.
Chris Carson Stats
Let’s talk about Chris Carson here. Now he is currently sitting 18th amongst running backs in the consensus rankings, which makes him around fourth-round pick. I just did a mock draft yesterday, he’s coming off in the fourth round. Now, that’s pretty good value considering this is a guy that last year finished 12th in PPR amongst running backs. He got a ton of volume, 278 attempts, 1,230 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, seven touchdowns, and then receiving. 47 targets for 37 receptions, 266 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. 12th, guys, in PPR last year. Again, not bad, but every year, guys, we see things change. One concern, and it’s the same kind of knock I have towards Dalvin Cook, is that Chris Carson hasn’t finished an entire season. That to me, now if you put everything aside, the attempts, the talent, he’s obviously very talented. 5’11, 220, going into this four-season. He’s still young, he’s 25 years old. The talent is there, I’m not going to knock him on talent. I love Chris Carson, talent-wise. The problem comes is the injuries here. Four games in 2017, 14 games in 2018, and 15 games. He hasn’t finished a full season, I know he’s one game short here or there. It doesn’t matter to me. I want to see a full season finished, especially if it’s a guy that I’m considering, probably in this case, my RB2, RB3. I’m very selective, guys, with my running backs. So that’s kind of the first thing, right? You got to look at durability, right? The CUDDY system. Consistency, upside, durability, depth, and youth. So consistent, not so consistent, because he’s been injured, right? Upside? Sure. He’s in Seattle, there’s some upside. Durability, not so durable. Depth chart, let’s talk about it. The youth is there. Why? CUDDY, youth is there. We look at the why and the CUDDY. But the depth chart, that’s the problem. Yes, he’s the highest guy in the depth chart, but here’s the problem. I’m going to talk about it. The problem is Carlos Hyde, he bothers me. Now Carlos Hyde sucks, but the problem here is Carlos Hyde is good enough to be a thorn in the side of Chris Carson. I’m looking at Carlos Hyde’s numbers, he had over 1,000 yards, guys, 1,000 yards rushing with the Texans. Now he’s going to be on the Seahawks, this is bothering me. This is bothering me significantly, this is a thorn in my side. If you believe in Carson, which obviously you don’t, why would you bring in Carlos Hyde? This is a problem to me. So if you’re looking at the depth chart, yes, Carson is there, but Carlos Hyde’s going to be a thorn in the side. That is going to bother me and that is probably one of the reasons I’m probably going to stay away from Chris Carson. So again, Carlos Hyde is kind of a workhorse on his own. That’s why I love David Johnson so much, is because Carlos Hyde is not there. Again, that’s going to pose a big problem for me if I’m considering drafting a guy like Chris Carson.
Now, let’s go back to last year here real quickly, I’m going to pull up the numbers. Now last year, Chris Carson had 278 attempts compared to Rashaad Penny who was second with 65 attempts. [inaudible 00:04:38]. Penny obviously is dealing with his injuries, he’s always banged up, so they brought in Hyde to kind of back up if Penny doesn’t come through this and that. The problem is Hyde is a little better than Penny and they’re going to integrate them. So this is the problem that I’m having is I’m considering Chris Carson, I got to deal with a thorn that is Carlos Hyde. So guys, I’m going to make this very short, very sweet, very simple. I don’t want to drag this out, but I’d want to talk to you guys about the robust RB strategy. I talk about this in all my videos. I just did a mock draft, if you’re on YouTube, you can check it out here. This was dated, I think, June 3rd. When did I do the video? It was, sorry, June 5th, right? So check it out. June 5th, I did a mock draft with wide receivers, okay? Zero RB is what I tried.
In this mock draft, it didn’t work out. It just didn’t work out. I tried it, I think I went Julio, and then I went Golladay and I went Ridley, ironically two Falcons. Long story short, I tried to go with the robust wide receiver strategy, it didn’t work. So if you do get Carson, and I know a lot of people, if you’re a Seattle fan, you’re going to want to get Carson, because I know a lot of people are team biased, you got to go part of a robust RB strategy. Because what happens is if you do not get a running back, especially those running backs [inaudible 00:05:55] early on, we’re Fantasy Football draft strategy, you’re going to end up with a Carlos Hyde, you’re going to end up with a Jordan Howard, a Phillip Lindsay as your RB1, RB1, and it’s not going to look pretty, okay? You don’t want that.
So I ended up, in this particular module, after you go check it out, Todd Gurley was my RB1. I ended up somehow getting him, I think in the fourth round, which was crazy at the beginning of the fourth round because I ended up picking him ninth. Then I ended up coming back and I think I got … who was it? I can’t remember.
Go check the mock draft, who my second running back was. I think it was Cam Akers or something like that. Very risky. I think Akers has a huge, huge ceiling, but you don’t want that. So if you do get Carson, he could be your RB3 or four as part of a robust RB strategy. I see him coming off as early as three, as late as five, depending on how many people are in your league.
2020 Outlook
Okay, so let’s talk about verdicts here. What am I doing? Very simple, I’m going to stay away from Chris Carson. Again, I love the talent, we talked about this. We looked at the numbers. I love the attempts because that’s one thing I do look at, guys, when I look at any running back, I look at attempts. When I look at him, 278 attempts, that’s a sweet deal. That tells me a couple of things. Number one, he can handle the workload as a running back, and number two, the Seattle Seahawks believe in him. He was fifth in attempts, okay? When you look at rushing yards, he was fifth in rushing yards. But I’m still bothered, I can’t get over Carlos Hyde being there. Some people will still say, “Joe, he’s there for backup, he’s there for depth. They need him for depth.” I understand that. But when I look at any running back, the gap between this guy and this guy has to be big. Trust me, Carson’s a lot better than Hyde, but the durability, that’s when it kind of brings it and levels these guys off.
Now if you’re watching on YouTube, my hands are pretty close to each other, right? When you look at David Johnson and his backup, there’s a big gap, when you look at Saquon Barkley and his backup, Dion Lewis, there’s a big gap, right? When you look at Zeke Elliot and Pollard, there’s a pretty big gap. But Pollard is showing some flashes. Pollard is concerning me a little bit because the guy can catch the ball in the backfield. Now I heard it on the news today, it’s bothering me with Derrick Henry’s is going off on a tangent here, that Arthur Smith, the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans is saying that Derrick Henry is going to possibly be part of a committee. They want to work with the new guy Evans, Darrynton Evans. They want to work with him now. That’s a problem because Henry led in attempts with 303. If they pull that back, that could be an issue. But there’s a huge gap between Evans and Henry. Henry’s far superior, he’s going to get more volume. But when you look at the comparison of Carson and Hyde, it’s enough to make me think, “Okay, am I going to be considering Carlos Hyde later or am I going to get Chris Carson early?” How about this? Just stay away from the entire situation.
Listen, I got a pre-workout here. If you guys have been watching me on social, I’m going to take a sip here. I’ve been doing a lot of bike riding, so I need a drink here, I did a pre-workout. Listen, I’m wired here, I’m stressed out about this. Chris Carson, you’re going to deal with risk. Whenever you draft any player, you want to minimize risk and maximize some certainty. Now when you have a wild card guy, like a Cam Akers, high ceiling guy, high upside, you’re going to take some risks. That’s okay, but make sure it’s part of a robust RB strategy. Guys, that’s a secret. You always have a backup plan for a backup plan. That’s what I talk about in 16 Rounds Draft Solution, a backup plan for a backup plan, cover yourself. Verdict. Stay away from Chris Carson, it’s too much of a risk. Hyde’s going to be a thorn in the side, I think. Again, I could be wrong. Chris Carson could still finish top 10 and Carlos Hyde could just be a backup there, right? But I’m not taking the risk, I’m going to stay away and minimize the risk there.
See you guys, I always give you guys a little bit of homework to take home with you, because it’s important that you guys interact, okay? It’s very, very important. Of course, I’ve also linked below the Impact Series. If you’re on YouTube, you can watch all the other videos. I’m working through the running backs, going to get to the wide receivers. Because it gets important to really dive in statistically in that situation with that running back wide receiver, whatever positional player you’re looking at, even quarterbacks, and seeing if they’re going to be a top 10 finish. Because what goes up must come down and things vary every single year. It’s not just copied and paste rankings here with the Fantasy Football Counselor Podcast.
We go year-round. Guys, 2020 Fantasy Football will be here before we know it. I’m super excited, guys. Stay glued to the channel and we will talk soon. Thank you.
– The Counselor
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