[iframe style=”border:none” src=”//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/14920253/height/100/width//thumbnail/no/render-playlist/no/theme/custom/tdest_id/1750511/custom-color/3db4fa” height=”100″ width=”100%” scrolling=”no” allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen]
Fantasy Football hot takes that could actually happen. The Counselor dives into these hot takes and offers a lot of practical fantasy football advice as well.
A little bit of a hot take, but it’s more of just, I think it’s just going to happen. It’s just going to get hotter as we go along with these takes, so stick with me
1. Nick Chubb will bust significantly.
Currently, right now he’s sitting eighth right now amongst running backs. I easily say this guy finishes outside the top 15. That’s almost double where he’s sitting now. He’s eighth. Let’s say finishes 16th amongst running backs. He’s going to finish significantly below where he’s being drafted. If you draft the first eighth, you assume he’s going to finish at least eighth. Right? He’s coming off the late first round. Nick Chubb is coming off late first-round early second in a 12-person 1-point PPR league. Listen, the bottom line is I’ve talked about it in many videos. I won’t elaborate on this too much. But I will tell you Nick Chubb is in a major committee. At a minimum, it’s going to be 60-40, 50-50. Kareem Hunt will get work. He’ll be used as a receiver on third downs. The guy catches the ball lot. Kareem hunt outscored Nick Chubb six out of the eight games in PPR. If already right now, we have a window. We have a window. We’ve seen eight weeks of these guys playing together. Out of those eight weeks, Kareem Hunt outscoring Nick Chubb. Why are you drafting Nick Chubb in the first round? Are you nuts? Come on man. Think logically. Get yourself a guy that’s primed for a workload guy. A guy like even Josh Jacobs is primed for a workload at the end of the first round. I would not touch Nick Chubb. I’d rather have Todd Gurley than Nick Chubb. Todd Gurley’s primed for a great season. He’s a full workhorse running back and he doesn’t have Kareem Hunt breathing down his neck. You got to look at the gaps. You got to look at the gaps between the running backs. If a running back is far better than the other running back, grab them. Right, if the gap is huge? But if the gap is pretty narrow, it’s close and it’s tight. They’re like, “Who’s better? Maybe Kareem Hunt was the rushing leader in 2017. People forget that. They’re pretty close in talent. I should stay away from that. Because Kareem Hunt will eat … unless Kareem Hunt is the water boy. That’s the only way I would draft Nick Chubb. That’s the first hot take.
2. Alexander Mattison will get the start
Hot take number two. Alexander Mattison will be the starter this season and will keep the job. What do I mean by that? Dalvin Cook’s already threatened to hold out. If Alexander Mattison comes in, and I know Alexander Mattison will do well once he’s got that opportunity. If Dalvin Cook is stupid enough to hold out, Alexander Mattison comes in. This is the hot take. Alexander Mattison will be the starter and will keep the job in Minnesota. If Alexander Mattison gets the star and Dalvin Cook holds out, he takes the job. Another thing that’ll happen, another scenario here is Dalvin Cook plays. Whether he gets paid, now he’s incentivized, whatever, or he doesn’t get paid. He’s still hungry, whatever. The bottom line is Dalvin Cook gets hurt. Alexander Mattison, at some point in the season, 1st, week, 5th week, 10th week, will get the start and will steal the job. Bottom line is to get Alexander Mattison on all your rosters. This guy is the starter there in Minnesota. Again, if you look at it, this isn’t just Joe talking pie in the sky here. Alexander Mattison had 100 attempts, had over 400 yards. If you project that out, 4.6 yards per carry. If you project that over the 250 attempts that Dalvin Cook had, he had over 1100 yards. Mattison would have done just as good if not better than Dalvin Cook. Trust me. There’s a reason Mattison’s on that team. There’s a reason why these teams are getting Jonathan Taylor when they have Marlon Mack. They’re getting Clyde Edwards-Helaire when they have Damien Williams they know that they don’t have to pay these guys. AJ Dillon for the Packers, when they have Aaron Jones. They know that these running backs ahead of them, they only have X amount of years for shelf life. Decline’s imminent, injuries happen. They got to cover themselves. The guys they’re bringing in are even more talented than the guys that currently have. Yes, AJ Dillon could outperform Erin Jones. We don’t know. Jonathan Taylor, clearly the better running back over Marlon Mack. You got to look at the situation here. I see Mattison being the starter here.
3. DeAndre Hopkins will bust
All right, hot take number three. This one’s a good one here for you. DeAndre Hopkins will bust and finish outside of the top 10 in fantasy points amongst wide receivers. Hopkins will bust for Fantasy Football 2020. That is my prediction. He is now being drafted top five amongst wide receivers coming off the late first round. Typically, now I’m going to stay away and I’ll tell you why. Very simple to me, there were two receivers that had the bulk of the volume last year with the Arizona Cardinals. First and foremost let’s talk about Hopkins being on a new team. The new quarterback needs to build that rapport. Since the world situation has brought us to a point where we were staying home more, Hopkins may not have had as much time to build that rapport with Kyler Murray. That could be number one, and a new team. Right? Number two, guys listen. As I said, the top two receivers that got the bulk of the volume were Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. They’re still there. They are still there with the Arizona Cardinals. I look at the situation and I’m looking at it like Hopkins, for him to succeed and become top five amongst wide receivers, he’s got to have at least 150 targets. Larry Fitzgerald, Mac, who’s the wide receiver one, maxed out at 109 targets. Okay, that’s interesting. Christian Kirk had 107 targets. That’s let’s say 220 some odd targets there. But that’s between two guys that are still there and have that rapport with Kyler Murray. Let’s say Hopkins comes in. Now somehow Kyler pulls it out of his ass, gets another 1000 targets available. So then 50 for … how’s that going to work? I’m just trying to think of mathematically how that’s going to work. Kyler has to throw maybe a hundred more times towards the receivers. Just mathematically, it doesn’t make sense. Let’s just say Fitzgerald sees 50 last targets. So does Christian Kirk. There are 100 targets going over to Hopkins. That’s still not 150 targets, not to mention Drake catches the ball in the backfield. They acquired and drafted Eno Benjamin at running back as well. There’s going to be … Chase Edmonds is there catching the ball.
I don’t see enough targets being there. I don’t think it’s a talent thing. I genuinely think it’s a volume thing. Anyway, my reasoning, I just don’t feel comfortable with this. I’m not drafting Hopkins. He will bust and he will finish outside the top 10 in fantasy points amongst wide receivers, hot take.
4. Juju will not be the WR in Pittsburgh
All right. Here’s another hot take for you, hot take number four. Juju will not be the wide receiver one in Steeltown, with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Diontae Johnson or Claypool will emerge. Listen, Diontae Johnson shows some great flashes of … this guy could be a really good wide receiver and he didn’t have Big Ben throwing to him. Claypool was there as well. Juju, we don’t know if he can really handle the double coverage without Antonio Brown being there. We saw a decline last year. Diontae, Claypool, I’d definitely consider grabbing these guys. They could emerge as the wide receiver one. A very viable hot take here could happen.
5. Todd Gurley will finish Top 10
Hot take number five here, Todd Gurley will easily finish in the top 10 currently sitting 14th amongst running backs. You’re saying, “Joe, that’s not really that hot.” Well, it is because I’m telling you guys right now, guys Aaron Jones, guys like Joe Mixon, guys Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, all being drafted ahead of Todd Gurley, pushing him out of the top 10. But Todd Gurley will finish in the top 10, possibly even top 5, get back into the form he was in back a couple of years ago. Love Todd Gurley, volume opportunity. He will finish in the top 10. That’s a pretty hot ticket. It could get hotter if I said the top five, but I’m reserving that for the next one.
6. David Johnson Will Finish Top 5 Amongst RB’s
Hot take number six, David Johnson finishes in the top five amongst running backs in fantasy points. Currently sitting 20th right now. Can you believe this? Todd Gurley sitting at 14th, David Johnson sitting at 20th. David Johnson in a prime position to succeed with the Texans. They’ve invested a lot of capital in him trading off Deandre Hopkins, their top receiver, and getting David Johnson. Because again, there’s only a handful of running backs that can really perform at an optimal level and then have a minimal committee. David Johnson is one of those guys. Had a series of just unlucky situations and it wasn’t even injury. The one year was injury and that was the wrist injury a couple of years ago, but literally what it came down to was Kingsbury benching him last season. Believe me, when I say this, the opportunity is there. The talent is there for David Johnson. He will emerge. He will emerge as a top-five running back. He’s got the volume. Carlos Hyde had over 1000 rushing yards last year, over 242 attempts, and 6 touchdowns. Okay? That’s Carlos Hyde and he sucks. So David Johnson, going to lineup as a receiver, do really well in the passing game, and be utilized in all goal-line work. David Johnson will eat and finish top five. That’s my hot tip.
7. Aaron Rodgers will emerge back to 2016 Form
Number Seven, Aaron Rogers will emerge back to 2016 form. If you guys forgot 2016 form, we’re talking 40 touchdowns. We’re talking over 400, sorry, 4428 passing yards. We’re talking 380 fantasy points. Aaron, well I don’t think he’s really going to hit 2016 form. But it’s a hot take, but he’ll come pretty damn close if he gets in the groove. Listen, this guy’s getting a lot of negative talks. He’s done, he’s washed up. The future’s arrived. Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, they’re the future. Understandably, they are future. They’re great. But guys Aaron Rogers and Philip Rivers have a lot of chip on their shoulders. They’re sitting there saying, “Aw man, I am good though.” Aaron Rogers, this is the year he’s got to emerge. They’ve drafted Love right behind him at quarterback, breathing down his neck. I think Aaron Rogers makes a statement this year and goes back to 2016 form and emerges as a top-three quarterback. That’s a super hot take, but I like ceiling with Aaron Rogers this year.
8. Tom Brady wins a Super Bowl
All right. Hot take number eight, Tom Brady wins the Super Bowl and easily finishes as a top-10 quarterback. Now listen, he finished 11th last year amongst quarterbacks, sitting at 11th. It’s not a big stretch when you look at him finishing top 10 because that’s very viable, especially with the weapons that he’s got with Godwin’s and Evans. But it was pretty hot to almost certain guarantee that he’s going to win the Super Bowl. This is it, guys. Brady’s either going to win the Super Bowl this year or the next year, then he’s going to retire. He’s going to win one more Super Bowl. It’s a combination. This is a hot take with a combination. Which is my hot take number eight. Tom Brady not only fishes top 10 amongst quarterbacks, in fantasy points, but also wins the Super Bowl. There’s a hot take.
9. Ryan Tannehill finishes with more fantasy points than Lamar Jackson
Number nine. This one, I gave you a sneak preview with this one. But Ryan Tannehill finishes with more fantasy points that Lamar Jackson Oh my goodness. Yes. Injuries are included because Lamar Jackson runs a heck of a lot, over 1200 rushing yards. I talked about this. He puts himself at risk. I talked about this in my other shows. He had, I think, more rushing yards than everybody except for five or six running backs. I think the only people he didn’t have more rushing yards are Henry, Chubb. I think there’s a couple of other guys, Zeke. There are a couple of other guys. I think Chris Carson, a handful of running backs he didn’t finish with more rushing yards than. Actually I could pull that up for you guys right now. The only people that had more rushing yards than him were Carson, Zeke, McCaffrey, Chubb, and Henry, five running backs. I have that in front of me. I mean, when you look at Lamar he puts himself at risk. I’m not predicting injury. I hope he doesn’t get injured. I cringe every time he runs out. I love the guy. But what I’m saying is that Tannehill, if you project those numbers out how he played the first six games would have finished top three, had over about 330 fantasy points completely. He would have been in and around Dak Prescott numbers.
If you project a decline with Lamar, now they brought in Dobbins at running back. I’m assuming they want him to run the ball a little bit more with Ingram. I think they want to run the ball more with their running backs. Not so much. They want to preserve Lamar. They understand he is their guy. He’s the face of the brand. When you look at Lamar Jackson I think he’s going to decline in regards to rushing attempts. It’s a lose-lose situation. If he runs a lot, he gets injured potentially. If he runs less he’s going to lose fantasy points because he’s running less. He’s going to have less rushing yards, less rushing touchdowns et cetera. I think there’s going to be a decline in Lamar and a major increase with Ryan Tannehill. Ryan Tannehill now settled with the offense. AJ Brown stepping up, Geno Smith, great O-line, Derek Henry there. I’d like Ryan Tannehill this year to step up. Now I’m not saying go draft Ryan Tannehill in the second round. What I’m saying is get him as a backup quarterback with upside and don’t invest in quarterbacks early. I’m not paying a second-round pick on Lamar Jackson. Just not going to do it, guys. It’s way too early. The same thing happened with Pat Mahomes. He had a decline after his pinnacle year. What goes up must come down. How do you top last year’s numbers? It’s going to be very hard to do.
10. Drew Lock Finishes top 10 in fantasy points
All right. Number 10. Drew Lock, hot take number 10. Drew Lock will shock the world and finish top 10 amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points. He’s currently sitting 23rd and everybody is sleeping on Drew Lock. He’s got great weapons, great release, good arm. One of the top prospects coming into the draft a couple years ago. Listen, this guy is going to be solid. He’s got a lot of weapons. He’s got, Noah Fant. He could gravitate to a tight end and catch the ball. He’s got Melvin Gordon on the backfield to catch the ball. He’s got … who’s he got? Courtland Sutton, big red zone target for him right there. They got Jerry Jeudy, one of the best route runners on paper coming out of the NFL draft this year. Guys listen, this guy is loaded. He’s he’s going to be solid. As long as he performs, gets the ball, gets the timing on with the receivers, gets good pass protection, this guy could really boom and finish top 10. Get him late in your draft as a backup quarterback as well. Love the upside.
11. Late round tight end finishes top 3 in fantasy points
Number 11, this was an interesting one here and I opened this up here. But a tight end that you draft in your fantasy draft, but follow this. Hot take number 11, a tight end that you draft in your fantasy draft after the 10th round will finish top three amongst tight ends in fantasy points. Let me repeat that. A tight end that you draft, a Hawkinson, a Fant, a Gesicki, a guy like that you get after the 10th round. These guys sometimes fall after the 10th round, a guy like that, that you draft in the 10th round will finish top three amongst tight ends. Listen, this happens all the time. It happened with Kittle. It happens all the time where you get a tight end later and they emerge.
I remember a couple of years ago everyone was saying, “Joe.” Everybody was saying, “Joe, you got to get Gronkowski round one.” I’m like, “No, no, no. Give me George Kittle 10th round. I’m okay, right?” You get yourself a safe tight. You back him up. I talk about all this in the 16-round draft session, how to do this properly. One of these guys could easily break out. Why not load up on a couple of tight ends? One of them could hit … as long as they get 10 points out of my 10, I don’t care. Because you only have one or two tight ends really emerge, a Kelce, a Kittle, other than that, it’s downhill after that, Ertz maybe, but it’s downhill. Again, one of these guys could emerge top three, whether it be Gesicki, Fant, Hawkinson, Geno Smith. These guys are sitting pretty low on the rankings. Gesicki is 14th amongst tight ends right now, consensus rankings, Hawkinson 17th, Geno Smith’s 15th. It’s crazy. Fant I believe is 13th. One of these guys will emerge. Which one? Well why don’t you get 16 rounds and find out? I have a list of which ones to the draft and when to draft them.
12. Kenny Golladay TOP 3 fantasy point finish among WR’s
All right. Number 12, we have 17 total. This is getting fun. Kenny Golladay will finish top three amongst wide receivers. “Well Joe, that’s not really a hot take.” Well it is because there’s so many wide receivers that are ranked ahead of him. Example Hopkins. I think Kenny Golladay has a better season than Hopkins. Now Kenny Golladay is extra sitting seventh amongst a wide receivers right now. The consensus is finished ninth last year. Had a good year, 116 targets, 65 reception’s, over 1000 yards. In fact 1190 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns. That’s with Stafford being out. A healthy Stafford could mean good numbers for Golladay. That’s why I him and Hawkinson. I definitely Golladay. he’s going to be a solid guy that’s going to get a lot of volume and a primary target for a healthy Matt Stafford. Love him and my hot take is he finishes top three amongst wide receivers.
13. David Montgomery finishes Top 10 amongst RB’s in fantasy points
Hot take number 13, David Montgomery will finish top 10 amongst running backs. Listen, I’ve been talking to a physical therapist that knows David Montgomery personally, has been to his house. David Montgomery is working on his top-end speed, working on his explosiveness, because that’s something that he lacked. It wasn’t fully his fault. He faced some stacked boxes. He was coming off the field when he was gaining momentum on third downs. He was being pulled off the field by Nagy, trying to be too cute with his play calling. Listen, he still finished 24th last year, 889 yards, 3.7 yards per carry. That’s going to come up. He’s going to do a lot better this year. They have to, right? Nagy’s on the hot seat. They got to run the ball. They got to mix things up. David Montgomery, working on his speed, working on … work ethic is there. They didn’t draft anybody else which means they believe in David Montgomery. I love him. He’s going to get all the rushing work, 240 plus attempts. That’s going to go up. I’m looking at 260 point floor and David Montgomery finishes top 10.
14. Justin Jefferson will be the best rookie WR in fantasy
Number 14, this one’s an interesting one because everyone’s talking about this wide receiver class. Who’s going to emerge? Who’s going to do it? Who’s going to get the most points? Who’s going to be Rookie of the Year? Who’s the wide receiver? Is it CeeDee Lamb? Is it Jeudy? Who’s the guy? Well, my hot take is Justin Jefferson finishes with the most rookie wide receiver fantasy points amongst wide receivers. Let me repeat that. Out of all the wide receivers that came in, the Jeudy’s, the Lambs, the Reagor, all these guys that came in. Jefferson will finish with more fantasy points than all the rookie wide receivers. That’s my hot take. I think he’s a plug and play. If you look at a couple of years ago, Diggs had I think over 150 targets. Diggs had a bit of an off year last year, understandably so. They were just a mess right there in the passing game. But I think this year, Jefferson could really emerge here amongst all rookie wide receivers and be the top point-getter. He’s a plug and play. I mean they need him. They need him off the bat. They have to use them. I’m not high on rookie wide receivers as a first year coming out. But Jefferson could make an immediate impact and possibly score more. I mean, I love Judy. I love CeeDee Lamb, but they’ve got a lot of competition. I love CeeDee Lamb. When I heard he was going to the Cowboys I was really upset. He’s there with Gallup who could be a wide receiver on his own, in his own right. They’ve got Cooper. It’s just too much. Jefferson’s a guy that could really emerge.
15. David Johnson will beat a lot of 1st round RB’s in points
All right, 15. Going back to David Johnson finishing top five. Let’s do another David Johnson one. I mean, it’s common sense going back to number six where I said David Johnson finished top five. But it’s not really common sense because it sounds better when I say it this way. David Johnson will outscore Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara. He will outscore those guys at fantasy points, not combined but he will outscore them in fantasy points. He will do better than all those guys in fantasy points. That’s my hot but realistic take. The fact of the matter is the reason I picked those guys to do this example is because all those guys are sitting in the top 10 amongst consensus rankings. He will outscore every single one of those guys. Injuries aren’t included. Don’t say, “Well Joe, Dalvin Cook got injured.” That’s not fair. That’s all part of it. You’re drafting it predicated on assuming Dalvin Cook will get injured again. That’s part of it. Yes. I’m predicting injury because he’s been injured three years in a row. What’s to say he’s not good injured again? That’s my prediction. Odds are likely Dalvin Cook will get injured. That’s why Dalvin Cook played really well. That’s why Dalvin Cook wants to get paid. Because Dalvin Cook knows Dalvin Cook sucks and Dalvin Cook knows that Dalvin Cook’s going to get injured. I’m staying away.
16. Kareem will beat Chubb in PPR fantasy points
All right 16, we’re almost done here. Again, get that 16-round draft and just leave your questions below. Kareem Hunt will outscore Nick Chubb in PPR points by the end of this season. Yes. He outscored him six out of eight weeks when they played together. What’s to say he’s not going to outscore him for the entire season? Kareem Hunt will outdo Nick Chubb in fantasy points in PPR platforms. That is my prediction. It is a hot take, but it’s realistic. When I’m saying stuff this it means don’t draft Nick Chubb, guys. You can get Kareem Hunt later. Think outside the box, make smart decisions.
17. Godwin or Evans will finish Top 10
Finally, this one’s a good one. Number 17, currently right now, Evans and Godwin are both sitting in the top 10. My bold prediction is only one wide receiver will finish in top 10 amongst both of those. I know it doesn’t seem too hot but trust me, it is. I’ll tell you why, because right now I’m doing every mock draft I’m doing. I see Godwin come off in the second round. I see Evans come off in the third round. Every … it’s like clockwork. What I’m telling you is this: one of them is going to emerge. Not both, but one of these guys is going to emerge. You got to decide which one. It’s a coin toss. I’m going to make the decision for you right now, if you want me to. I say stay away from both of these guys. Trust me. When you look at it, if you look at Brady he only had one wide receiver that emerged on his team. It was Edelman right? So he’s going to gravitate to one guy. In this case, I think it might be Godwin.
But the reason why, the consensus, the con-sheep-sis, the sheep mainstream only have both these guys in the top 10. They both have the top 10 because they’re confused. Because Godwin finished second in PPR. They’re like, “Okay. Well Godwin finished second. We got to copy and paste. He’s got to finish top 10 again.” They’re doing that. But Evans is technically the wide receiver one on the team. They’re confused. This is where the con-sheep-sis, baa, baa. They’re really confused.
To solve this problem, because I’m uncertain too as to who’s going to finish because we don’t know. New offense, new quarterback, new situation different situation right. They’ve also got tight ends that catch the ball. If you look at Brady, he threw the ball 94 targets to James White, with the Patriots. RoJo, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, all these guys catch the ball. You look at the entire situation. You ask yourself, “Hey this is really weird. I’m going to stay away. I’m not investing second or third round draft capital on an uncertainty like that.” Especially when you should be going robust RB in the first three rounds anyway. I’m staying away. That’s my prediction. I’m going to stay away from that situation. Guys that’s-
Make sure you are subscribed to this #1 fantasy football podcast to dominate your leagues.