Superbowl Prediction and Preview 2020 – 49ers vs Chiefs
Joseph Robert: Welcome to the show, everybody. Joseph Robert, the fantasy football counselor, January 30th and we are doing the Super Bowl breakdown and we’re talking KC versus 49ers and we’re going to break it down. I got Tim AKA the bald man here. What’s going on Tim?
Tim: Good man. But why the hell are we not in Miami?
Joseph Robert: Yeah, I know. I’ve been looking at previews. People out there, sunshine, palm trees, DeAndre Hopkins actually just did a live Q and A. Actually it wasn’t a Q and A, it was just more of a live, but he had people asking him questions. Either way, it looks amazing out there right now.
Tim: Yeah. I want to be there instead of up here, freezing my balls off.
Joseph Robert: Listen, so we’re going to have you on the show, Tim, and then I’m going to have… He’s an NFL agent. He’s worked with several different athletes including Martavis Bryant way back in the day when I first started my brand. Tom Santinello, he knows football pretty well. So after we’re done with you, Tim, I want your opinion, your breakdown and what you think on who you think is going to be the winner here. And then we’re going to have Tom come on the show as well and get his input. Again, he knows football really well, so his input is very valuable. So make sure you guys stay for the whole show, the entire show, and be here guys.
Tim: Yeah man. I mean I’m focused and mainly you’re focused more on fantasy points, fantasy-relevant players. Tom knows his football inside out. He’s more all-around defense, offense, playbook, level, blah. So it’s good to get his opinion as well.
Joseph Robert: Tim, let me start off here by saying Super Bowl 54, 6:30 PM Eastern time. It’s going to be in Miami. It’s going to be warm and I’m looking at the odds here. Tim, one and a half point favorite are the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I think originally it was a little higher in regards to spread, but I think they brought it down, a lot more people betting on the 49ers. What do you think? Do you think that’s a fair spread based on the matchup?
Tim: I like the fact that they’re calling it a close game. I do believe it’s going to be a close game. I believe for these two teams it’s going to be a relatively low scoring game. I believe the over-under is what, like 51 or 52, somewhere in that range?
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tim: I’m thinking that’s fairly accurate. When I do my little thing, I’m putting the final score around 50 so I’m right there.
Joseph Robert: Yeah, I mean it’s going to be interesting. I’ve seen different over unders. I’ve got 54 and a half where I’m looking now, I’m looking at different places. So anything around 52 to 55, I think that varies depending on what site you’re on. I think that’s pretty reasonable the way that Pat Mahomes has been playing. You got to assume he’s going to score at least three touchdowns for this game, I can’t see that any other way. And if you are picking, I would say the 49ers to win, you got to assume that they’re going to put up three or four touchdowns. So I could definitely see this going over 50 points. It’s going to be an interesting game. How do you want to break this down? Just start off with, you want to start off with quarterbacks here, Tim, or is there anything else that you want to add before we get into the players and the full breakdown here?
Tim: Well I wasn’t even going to go into individual players on this. Let’s be honest, we’re not putting together a fantasy team out of this one game, right? So it doesn’t matter if you think this quarterback is going to do this, this quarterback’s going to do this. I just wanted to talk mainly about gameplay and what I think the keys are, and who needs to do what.
Joseph Robert: Yeah. We should talk about the players as well. I’ve got a couple of players broken down including the running backs and the quarterbacks. Very important to talk about that in each position. But what do you got there? What do you have?
Tim: Okay, so for me, I think the keys are KC has to establish a run here and if they can’t then it’s going to be all air. It just makes it easy for San Fran’s defense to know what to do. On the flip side of that, to me, San Fran has to play two different ways, so they’ve got to gauge what KC’s going to do off the start. Are they going to go to the past right from the get-go or are they going to try to establish that run?
Tim: If so, then San Fran, the defense, has to shut whichever down, so shut down the run or shut down the passing game and then flip the tails. So once KC starts making the adjustment, San Fran better respond and make the adjustment too, that’s where it’s going to be, to me. It’s going to be San Fran’s defense stepping up and doing what’s necessary to shut down however KC wants to play those games. On the flip side, KC has got to shut down that run, man. The San Fran run in the playoffs has been insane. Jimmy G. hasn’t needed to do squat, really, because the running game has taken care of everything.
Joseph Robert: Yeah, hitting on those two points. First thing, KC establishing the run, it’s not going to happen. They have Damien Williams at running back, 29 attempts and 92 yards, 3.2 yards per carry in the postseason. I’m not excited. Damien Williams can not run between tackles. He’s an outside runner. He catches the ball here and there and he gets a little bit of that gold line work. So I’m not expecting any type of run game from KC at all. And I think that if they do it, it’ll be shut down pretty quickly.
Joseph Robert: In regards to passing, I mean the NFC championship, we saw Jimmy G. go 6 of 8 passes for only 77 yards. They got to throw the ball as well and mix things up. Both of these guys have a weakness, obviously KC and the running game. We got San Fran in the passing game and again it’s a bit of a chess match here. Is everything going to balance? That’s why it’s such an evenly matched match up here. And then you’ve got the neutralization of this stuff. So now KC with the big passing attack, I think the defense neutralizes him, Pat Mahomes. I really do. The pass rush will be intense. I mean it’s a chess match here, Tim. I’m really torn on the Super Bowl. I don’t see a clear cut winner here.
Tim: No, I think this is going to be a really exciting, close game and that’s what I love so much about this one. I think these two teams, you know, San Fran has got the defense and KC’s got the offense and I think that’s going to make for a great playbook here. Kind of along the lines of what you’re saying though. Yeah, so if KC can’t get that run game going, it’s just going to make it so much easier for San Fran to play the past defense.
Joseph Robert: Right. I’m going to give you guys my prediction at the end. Tim’s going to give his prediction before he takes off and then we’re going to have Tom jump on the phone is going to give us his real in-depth point of view here on the breakdown this matchup, but again, let’s talk about quarterbacks real quick. Breaking it down, the obvious edge goes to Pat Mahomes. 615 yards, 8 touchdowns, zero interception. The postseason, Jimmy G.aroppolo, 208 yards, one touchdown. Big difference there, when you’re looking at Pat Mahomes and Jimmy G. in regards to the quarterback, so let’s give him the edge there. There’s no debate here, Tim, with the quarterbacks.
Tim: No, not at all. You don’t even have to look at just the playoffs. You just look at Pat Mahomes in general. He’s definitely a far superior quarterback.
Joseph Robert: Now running back, obviously the run gamer, Raheem Mostert absolutely tearing it up. 220 yards, 4 touchdowns on 29 attempts the last game. Unbelievable. I mean, as you said, they got to neutralize and stop that run game if they have any chance of winning this matchup. KC does.
Tim: Yeah, and it’s not just Mostert. I believe in the divisional playoffs it was Coleman, you know the yardage wasn’t as huge, but he had a pretty good day with like a hundred yards or better. So it can go either way, man. They’ve got guys who can run different ways… That’s it. KC has to shut them down, or San Fran is just, here’s another problem too. KC has been playing from behind, for I believe every game so far in the playoffs, if not definitely the last two. They cannot get behind by like 10 points to a team like San Fran.
Joseph Robert: Yeah, you can’t do that. I mean you came back that one game, it’s not going to happen again necessarily. So you have to take advantage of this. And I think Dan Marino ended up saying something to Pat Mahomes, I read it in a meme somewhere, but he’s saying, “Yeah, make sure you take advantage of this opportunity because you may not have it again.” Coming from a legend like Dan Marino who never got to win a Super Bowl, this is Mahomes’ chance. And again, that goes the same to Jimmy Garoppolo as well. So both these guys young, both of them hungry. It’s going to be a very, very interesting and entertaining Super Bowl in my opinion.
Tim: Oh yeah, for sure. It’s going to be a great game.
Joseph Robert: It’s funny, I saw somebody say, “Yeah man, just bet on the red team.” So yeah, it’s pretty funny that both are red teams, red and white. So it’s going to be interesting with these little memes and jokes coming out in regards to this. So anything else you want to add? Tim, do you want to give us your score here and we’ll wrap this up?
Tim: Here’s my thing. I think the final score, I’m giving it San Fran and I’m going to say San Fran 27 to 23
Tim: Mark it down and call me on it later if I’m totally wrong. I’ll just tell you to go screw yourself anyways. I don’t care!
Joseph Robert: That’s Tim’s prediction. So San Fran wins, what? 28-23 you said?
Tim: 27 to 23.
Joseph Robert: 27 to 23, San Fran. That’s Tim’s prediction. All right Tim, anything else?
Tim: I’m calling it.
Joseph Robert: Anything else you want to add? Who wins the coin toss? You know people vote on that as well. Who wins-
Tim: So once again I say I’m normally into the prop bets, but I don’t care about stupid things like that. A 50-50 coin flip thing, I don’t care.
Joseph Robert: It’s stupid.
Tim: I do think this game really matters, who gets that first score and who gets the ball first. So that being said, I still don’t care who wins the coin toss. I just think if San Fran gets that lead, KC is not coming back the way they did the other two times.
Joseph Robert: No, they’re not. There’s no way. I don’t see that either. So I just hope it’s entertaining. Now halftime show, are you excited about Shakira and J-Lo?
Tim: I actually am, man. You know right now I’m dating a Chilean girl, so I’m all about it.
Joseph Robert: All right Tim. So Tim is really excited about the halftime show. He’ll be-
Tim: Shakira’s hips don’t lie. That’s all I can say.
Joseph Robert: His hips will definitely not lie when he’s watching this thing, that’s for sure.
Tim: You make that sound really dirty. I just got a mental image.
Joseph Robert: I could see you dancing with Shakira, right? Oh, I’ve got to get the image out of my head. All right, Tim, we’re done for today. All right?
Tim: You have a good interview with Tom there.
Joseph Robert: Thanks Tim, for being on. Let’s move on to Tom Santanello. Thanks, Tim.
Tim: All right brother, take it, easy everybody.
Joseph Robert: Take care. Take care. All right, so we’ve got Tom Santinello on the phone, NFL agent. The guy knows his stuff about football and he’s going to break down this 49ers-KC game for the Super Bowl 54. Tom, what’s going on?
Tom Santanello: How are you, Joe? Thanks for having me.
Joseph Robert: I’m excited that you’re here. I know you’re really knowledgeable about football. I’m excited to hear your point of view. Break this down for us. Let’s just say that- cause there’s going to be a lot of casual fans watching people that don’t know anything about football. But then there’s also going to be the guys that really want it broken down, so try to cater to everybody and explain who you think is going to win this game. We’re going to hear your final score at the end here, but what’s going to happen? This matchup is going to be a chess match. Tell us a little bit about what you think is going to happen in this matchup.
Tom Santantello: Well I think it’s going to- I think it’s a great game with two of the best teams if not the two best teams in the NFL. I think one thing you have to look out for early is the last two games that the Chiefs played, they fell behind double digits against the Texans. I believe it was over 20 points.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: And also against Tennessee, I think it was 10-nothing at 17:07. I don’t think they can afford to do that against this 49ers team. Tennessee was a one-dimensional team and they had that run. They have the horrible quarterback, horrible passive offense. The trick is, Kansas City, if they can afford to play from behind, Tennessee couldn’t. And I think that’s how they won that game. And you know, Houston was actually a better match up.
Tom Santanello: But you know, fast forward into this game, San Francisco is coming off a big win where they were up over 20 points at the half. So these are two teams of just… really at the end of the day, dominated their opponent. But you know, the first half, like I said in the last two games for the Chiefs, they lost all those games in the first half. And I think they have to come out strong.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: San Francisco, they’re more geared towards the rushing, but they have more of a balanced offense than anyone. They’ve really faced it pretty similar to the Ravens, the Chiefs played the Ravens earlier in the year and I do think Kansas, I’m sorry, San Francisco can hang with anybody. They don’t really get blown out in a couple of losses. They’re right with anybody. And I think they’re going to try to run the ball against the Chiefs because the Chiefs, they don’t have the best running defense.
Joseph Robert: No.
Tom Santanello: You know, they have Chris Jones back. He came back last week after, basically a bi-week. I think he should be about a hundred percent and I think he was really important to come back for that game last week. I think that’s going to help the Chiefs limit the 49ers on the ground this week. Me personally, I think this is a matchup you could see a rematch over the next five years as the two quarterbacks who are probably going to be in the same place. So it’s a very, very tough game to call. I’ve been going, either way, all week.
Tom Santanello: Personally, I think that at the end of the day the Chiefs can end up pulling it out by a few points just because of the passing attack. I think it’s that much better than the Niners’ defense. They’re passing attack, they’ve won what, six in a row to end the regular season, two in a row in the playoffs? And it’s just, it’s been too strong for everybody. Mahomes was a little banged up in the middle of the season and they’re really on fire. I think the good passing attack can beat the balanced attack. I just want to see Mahomes play four quarters of offense, not three, not two.
Joseph Robert: Everyone talks about the pass rush. Is there going to be enough pressure to neutralize Mahomes? It doesn’t sound like it, by what you’re saying. Do you think he’s still going to be putting up three to five touchdowns?
Tom Santanello: Well I think he’s still going to put up his points. I mean, how many people have ever contained him?
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: He’s still going to put points up. You just have to, I mean it sounds crazy. You have to put more up than him. He’s going to put his points up. You just have to put up a cup and make a couple turnovers. Maybe get a… you have to have somebody come up with a big play. Their passing attack, I think Garoppolo had about 8 attempts last week, two weeks ago in that Championship game. That’s not going to cut it against Kansas City.
Joseph Robert: 6 of 8, for 77 yards. That’s it.
Tom Santanello: And you know, they had that big midseason trade deadline for Emmanuel Sanders and he came up I think a couple of weeks ago, but they’re going to need to get him and Kittle involved and they’re really going to need to move the ball. I know when you run the ball you control the clock and that’s a good way to stay in the game and beat a team. The Titans did it against the Ravens and that’s how they beat them. You control the clock, you control the game, you control the line of scrimmage. That’s how they did it last week, Tennessee in the first quarter, first half almost. And honestly, Mahomes had that major, it was an unbelievable throw at the end of the first task. If they held him on that, it would’ve been a little different ballgame.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: So I think you have to control the line of scrimmage. And to go back to your question, San Francisco I think, has a much better chance of controlling the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the ball. So yeah, listen, Joe, I said this is one of the toughest games to call. I just don’t think San Francisco is going to do what the Patriots did last year or the Rams and win like what I remember the score was, 14-9 or something like that. I don’t think it’s going to be something like that. I think it’s going to be more of in the 30s or in the high 20s, just because San Francisco can put up points. Look what they did against New Orleans. I think they play up to their competition no matter what.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: And I think they will put up points, but I do think the d-line will make a presence. They should be able to get a couple of sacks and more importantly you need the defensive lines to cause a couple of turnovers, you know, interceptions. And that’s how Mahomes will make a couple of bad throws and that’s how the Niners will really take this game.
Joseph Robert: Damien Williams, he’s not going to be much of a threat. 29 attempts for 92 yards, 3.2 yards per carry. There’s no threat at all within the regards to rush games. So if you’re only one dimensional, just throwing the game, I’m just imagining the 49ers plan for that and say, Hey, these guys have no run game. Damien Williams can’t run down the middle. We’re good. That’s how I’m looking at it. And I think they’re going to neutralize that pass, I think a little bit more.
Tom Santanello: Yeah, I think they are. I mean, the problem is, when you play Kansas City, everybody knows that though. The difference is this is one of, if not the best defensives that they’ve played and they haven’t faced a d-line like this all year. But you know that going in against Kansas City. Andy Reid, he’s always been pass heavy. When he was in Sterling, he had LeSean McCoy. McCoy, I don’t even know he’s going to be active.
Joseph Robert: No, he sucks.
Tom Santanello: Listen, they got here because of the past. He would never live it down if he went to the run and lost this game. I just don’t see it.
Joseph Robert: So what is your prediction, score-wise? How do you see this thing play out?
Tom Santanello: You know, I think the line has been about one, one and a half a week, and I’ve been back and forth. If you put a gun to my head, I’d say 35-31, Kansas City,
Joseph Robert: 35-30- I’m marking this down here. 35-31, KC. Yeah, I could see that as well. Again, you can’t go wrong. You can’t say, Oh, you know, screw you, you’re going KC, or screw you, you think- I mean it’s the coin flip. It’s like the betting on the coin flip here.
Tom Santanello: You’ve got to look at Andy Reid, post-season success into one Super Bowl. And it was against the Patriots during their dynasty. But then Shanahan, he was the, I believe in Atlanta when they collapsed against the Patriots, but he still put up points. So I’d like to see how Shanahan performs. He’s a very smart coach and I think he’s going to be prepared. And I think he’s more apt to have a trick up his sleeve, unlike Andy Reid and come up with something that we won’t see.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santinello: I think Andy Reid’s going to stick to his guns.
Joseph Robert: If you look at it from a character perspective, I remember when Ray Lewis, I predicted it, cause I knew Ray Lewis would win that last Super Bowl before he retired. And I looked at Peyton Manning and I’m like, yeah, they’re going to- I don’t know, I’m a bit of a conspiracy theorist guy. And I thought, okay, Peyton Manning’s going to win this. Do you see anybody here that’s worthy of a Super Bowl or do you think anybody hears Oh that guy deserves a Super Bowl, or that guy wants it more, like Richard Sherman or something like that? Is there anybody here where you think it favors a certain team in regards to characters-
Tom Santanello: Well, listen Joe-
Joseph Robert: Who deserves it?
Tom Santanello: You don’t deserve Super Bowls. You earn them.
Joseph Robert: That’s a good point.
Tom Santanello: Number 2, you know there’s- if you had to say, one guy, it’s Richard Sherman, but it’s not him because it’s not… You know, how. There’s no way I would even mention him.
Joseph Robert: He’s already won. He’s already won.
Tom Santanello: I think, you being a hockey fan, they should say that in Boston years ago about Ray Bourque, when he won his title on the Avalanche.
Joseph Robert: Right.
Tom Santanello: You just don’t… You don’t deserve anything. You have to earn it and you have to go out there and win it. But this isn’t like Dan Marino going and switching teams and deserving a super [crosstalk 00:19:44] of his crew. There is nobody of that stature. You got two young quarterbacks that, as I told you, I can see this rematch happening at least once over the next five years, can’t you?
Joseph Robert: Yeah, I could. I could see that. They’re both young, both hungry. Mahomes obviously the better talent here, but you know Jimmy-
Tom Santanello: I mean, the Chiefs-
Joseph Robert: I don’t know. Go ahead.
Tom Santanello: The Chief’s defense, this is the best they’ve had in the last couple of years of defense. So you know, they picked up the honey badger who I think could make a difference on their defense, come up with a big play. As I said, they have Chris Jones, I believe he’s homegrown in the middle, and they have a couple other guys, Clark, and they have some difference-makers finally on defense. Now they don’t have a top-five, top 10 defense, but it’s better than it has been. It’s enough to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco, they have a very well balanced offense. I know it’s better on the rushing side, but Garoppolo, he’s like Brady early in his career, he didn’t swing it. He threw the ball five yards every time. Charlie Weiss was his offensive coordinator. He played to win the game and I think that’s what Garoppolo is going to do. He’s not going to play this role for 300 unless you asked him.
Joseph Robert: Right. Well, it’s going to be interesting. I’ll give you my prediction here. I’m going to go 27-24, San Fran. That’s my prediction.
Tom Santanello: That’s good.
Joseph Robert: I’m going, San Fran.
Tom Santanello: Like you said… I mean I cannot disagree with you there. I was with San Fran three days ago! When I broke it down, I just felt the Chiefs had a little too much offensive firepower, and their defense was just good enough.
Joseph Robert: I think Deebo is underrated. I really think Deebo Samuel is underrated. I think he’s going to be a factor in this game. What do you think of Deebo, watching him come out of college? He is a strong player. Do you have a quick breakdown of him? Do you see him being a superstar over the next three years?
Tom Santanello: I don’t know if he’s going to be a superstar, but I don’t know how they’re going to revolve around him. I think he continues doing what he does. He’s going to grow, and he’s going to have to catch some more balls and I know he runs the ball. He’s an all-around threat and I think that’s- in the Super Bowl you need a guy that can step up. Last year Sammy Watkins, I’m sorry, last week Sammy Watkins stepped up for Kansas City-
Joseph Robert: Yeah.
Tom Santanello: -had the biggest game of his life.
Joseph Robert: Right!
Tom Santanello: I think that’s why they paid him all this money. And Deebo, to your point, I think he could be one of those guys that, he has an 80-yard play this week. You’re going to need that in the Super Bowl. You just need it. There’s always somebody that steps up and does something that they’re not supposed to or that they don’t usually do. So I don’t know if he can be a superstar. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a superstar, but I do think he can be a solid player.
Joseph Robert: All right. Final question for you. Whose hips are you more excited to see shake, Shakira’s or J-lo’s?
Tom Santanello: J-lo.
Joseph Robert: Fair enough!
Tom Santanello: But I don’t watch halftime anymore.
Joseph Robert: You don’t watch halftime?
Tom Santanello: I gave up commercials and halftime. I gave it up. It’s changed too much over the years.
Joseph Robert: All right Tom. Thanks for coming on man.
Tom Santanello: Thanks, Joe. I’m looking forward to it and keep up the great work. I love the show.
Joseph Robert: Thanks. Talk soon.
Tom Santanello: Thanks.
Joseph Robert: So that’s it, guys. Super Bowl breakdown 54, I’m excited. 49ers, KC, Sunday. Going to be an exciting one. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast, and I cannot wait. Super Bowl cannot be here soon enough. We’ll talk soon. I’m out.
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