RB Rankings 2022
Fantasy Football RB Rankings 2022 | Top 5 RBs Early List
April 14, 2022
Fantasy Football Rbs to avoid
5 Fantasy Football RBs to Avoid in 2022 | Do Not Draft
April 19, 2022

5 Fantasy Football WRs to Avoid in 2022 | Do Not Draft

Fantasy Football 2022 WRs to avoid

Fantasy WRs to avoid

Today, I’m talking about why I’m not drafting top five wide receivers, including Tyreek Hill, including Cooper Kupp, big names. Why am I not drafting them this season? I recently did a post on Instagram. If you’re not following the number one Instagram verified page, go do that right now. You’re missing a lot of information and a lot of fun. Go follow Fantasy Football Counselor on Instagram. I did a post, not drafting these guys, some big names, and people were like, “Well, how could you not draft this big name?” I’m like, “Well, because I’m going to explain it in a podcast episode. I’m not drafting these guys.” I’m going to explain to you guys who these players are, these wide receivers specifically, and why I’m not drafting them. Big names. We’re talking Cooper Kupp. We’re talking to Tyreek Hill. We’re talking big top five, top 10 wide receivers, and why I’m not going to be drafting and why you should not be drafting them as well.

Well, I’m not just going to draft Cooper Kupp.” Well, let’s start off with the first guy Cooper Kupp. I’m going to explain why I am not drafting them. You’ve heard me say this in many other podcast episodes before. Again, I could be wrong. Cooper Kupp can come back and have another astronomical year. He could. Let’s explain it.

1. Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp Fantasy Football

Coming off a pinnacle year. He will decline.

The first one, I’m not drafting is Cooper Kupp. Well, Joe, you sound like a broken record. He had a pinnacle season, we understand. Yes, we understand. But first and foremost, why I’m not drafting any of these wide receivers, let me put a blanket statement over this so you guys understand. You should be going robust RB. Why? Because it’s the most scarce position. I want to get that out of the way first. Go Robust RB, it’s the most scarce position. Stay away from wide receivers early. That’s tip number one. You can stop watching this video if you want. But no, you want to listen because everybody’s going to be harping at you saying, “Well, why aren’t you drafting these top wide receivers?” You want to reason. First and foremost, you got to go Robust RB. That’s the first reason.

Let’s dive into Cooper Kupp. Specifically for a wide receiver. This guy had an astronomically year last year, with 191 targets. Nobody has 191 targets. I don’t remember anyone having 191 targets in the past. I don’t know how many years. I don’t remember anyone ever having 191 targets. If you look at Antonio Brown’s pinnacle year, he is around 166 targets. Michael Thomas didn’t even hit 191 targets in his pinnacle year back in 2019. In fact, I’m going to actually pull that up. I’m going to see what Michael Thomas’s pinnacle year was that particular year because that was something you could work off of. He had 185 targets, 149 receptions, nine touchdowns, and 1,725 yards. This is Michael Thomas in 2019 off that pinnacle year, with 185 targets and only nine touchdowns. Let’s go back to Cooper Kupp. Okay. I mean, this is what I’m saying. These numbers are astronomical.

16 touchdowns. Okay. 1,947 yards. More receiving yards, more touchdowns, more targets, beat him in every category. Remember what happened to Michael Thomas the year after? Everyone said draft Michael Thomas as the number one wide receiver. What do I say? Said avoid Michael Thomas as the number one wide receiver. Do not draft him. Don’t draft him. Sure enough, he got hurt. Michael Thomas, no one’s talking about him right now but he is going to be a fantasy football sleeper this year at wide receiver by the way, which no one’s talking about. Cooper Kupp, pinnacle year, even Michael Thomas didn’t top that. Antonio Brown, back in 2015, go look at his numbers, didn’t top this. Now, you’re going to say, “Well, Joe, he’s still a great receiver.” I understand he’s a great receiver. I’m not saying he’s going to bust. All I’m saying is that first-round pick guys, first-round, your precious first-round pick, knowing a guy’s going to decline…

We don’t know how much he’s going to decline. 100% he’s going to decline. How much is the question? That’s a gamble that you have to be willing to take. I’m not willing to take that in the first round knowing that the team is going to be… Another reason is the Super Bowl hangover. They had a great season last year. They won the Super Bowl and had a pinnacle anomaly year. Are they going to run the ball more? Who’s going to be… I got to take a look at the NFL draft. What else are they going to do? Any other moves they’re going to do here in the off-season? It’s still a little early, but either way, I don’t see Cooper Kupp having that many targets. Injury possible, I think he’s going to get hurt again. He’s been hurt in the past. You can only be so perfect for so long before something happens and it’s the law of averages. Cooper Kupp is a no for me, very expensive and I am staying away.

2. Davante Adams

Davante Adams Fantasy Impact

Adams May Have a Volume problem in 2022

The second guy here, I did it on the post as well, outed him in here is Davante Adams. This is very simple for me, very, very simple. Okay. I’m going to give you guys some stats here because sometimes I remember years ago, “Joe, you’re not breaking down stats. You’re just saying you’re going with your gut feeling.” Yes. Gut feeling has a big part of this. It does. I’ve done really well with gut feeling but I also take in stats, depth chart, opportunity, quarterback, talents, youth, age, injuries. Everything calculates and computes in my head, taking the process of the result that tells me whether I should or should not draft that particular player. Davante Adams. Let’s talk about Davante Adams.

I love him. Is talent an issue? Absolutely not. Is age an issue? Absolutely not. Is volume an issue? Now, we have a problem. Now, that makes me raise an eyebrow here. I’m trying to do an eyebrow raise. Not very good. Guys, I don’t think the volume’s going to be there. Okay. Hunter ran for last year and I’m not even looking at stats because I know the stats because I studied this crap all day. Hunter ran for 128 targets, not reading a teleprompter guys. Eyes closed, 128 targets the year before. Go look it up. My eyes are closed right here. I’m not looking at anything. What was it? Waller, 145 targets in 2020. I remember this stuff. Okay. Waller was, I believe, one of the top tight ends in that year, a couple of years ago, 2020. I’m actually going to pull it up. I want to see where exactly he finished at tight end.

I’m trying to prove a point here. Okay. Waller finished in 2020 based on targets number one at targets, just tied with Travis Kelsey with 145 targets that year 2020. In fantasy points, he was the number two tight end. Okay. In fantasy points with 278.6. He was the number one target for Derek Carr in 2020. In 2021, Wal didn’t finish the season. In came Hunter Renfrow, Renfrow had a good season, finished and peaked with 128 targets as I said. Hunter Renfrow, where is he? I got to pull up the wide receiver. I know it’s 128 targets. I want to take a look at his fantasy points. 128 targets, 103 receptions, nine touchdowns, 1,038 yards, and 259.1 PPR fantasy points for Hunter Renfrow. He was being the number one target and he peaked at 128 targets. Okay, let me go over this again.

Waller who finished number two tight end back in 2020, 145 target peak. Hunter Renfrow finished a top 10 wide receiver because Waller got hurt, and peaked at 128 targets. Okay. Adams thrived last year when the Packers had 169 targets which it brought him 11 touchdowns, 1,553 yards, and 344 fantasy points, which is great. Okay. Let me tell you something. Renfrow and Waller are still going to be on that offense as far as I know. I mean, something could change. Maybe Waller gets hurt in game one, maybe Waller gets traded. Maybe something happens. Maybe Hunter Renfrow breaks his leg in training camp. I don’t know. All I know as of the time of this recording… Okay. If I were to draft today, it’s April, I see Renfrow and I see Waller as guys that have rapport with Derek Carr. I’m not even crazy about Derek Carr being a great quarterback.

You guys know that. I think he’s overpaid at $121 million. That’s absolutely ludicrous for three years. The guy’s done nothing. He’s had two playoff appearances, wild cards, and lost both of those. He’s got a losing record. He’s peaked at 32 touchdowns in a season, which I think was 2015. He had what? 32 touchdowns. He hasn’t eclipsed 32 touchdowns passing in a season. You look at a guy like Derek Carr, who I don’t think is that good, you’re bringing in Adams. You’ve got Renfrow who’s the number one receiver on that offense last year with 128 targets, you got Waller with 145 targets. In comes, Davante Adams, and the sad thing about it is the mainstream consensus have Davante Adams ranked as a top-five receiver at the moment. Okay. In standard. In PPR, they’ve got Davante Adams at number four, literally pretty much copying and pasting on the consensus.

If you are buying a magazine or drafting based on ADP or you open up your league and you’re like, “Okay. Well, I’m ready to draft my league mates.” The platform you’re using, whatever it is, Yahoo or whatever site you’re using pops up with a player, Adam’s going to come up top four, top-five, and then you’re going to be like, “Okay. Well, I’m just going to draft him because he’s the best wide receiver off the board now based on ADP.” This is not the case because he’s in a totally different situation. Now, he could have a great season. I get it. But he’s in an entirely new situation. I don’t trust him. I just do not trust him getting that volume. Again, it’s not so much him. It’s more Derek Carr’s situation, volume opportunity, targets, new offense, new rapport, everything.

I know they’ve had a rapport in the past. Don’t get me into that. He’s in the NFL now, a different league right now they’re together. Okay. They might have rapport in the past but this is a different scenario. Adams, I’m not going to stay away for all the reasons I stated and volume being one of the key ones I’m staying away from him. Okay. Not to mention rapport and all that fun other stuff that’s got to happen and click on an entirely new offense. Okay. Adams is the other guy I’m going to go ahead and stay away from. All right. Big-name.

3. Tyreek Hill Tyreek Hill

The next guy here is Tyreek Hill. I mean, this one’s an easy one for me with Tyreek Hill. It goes without saying this guy’s volatile. I’m not going to spend too much time on Tyreek Hill’s stats other than the fact that he’s extremely volatile.

Now, he finished sixth last year in PPR, which is pretty phenomenal. But when I pulled up his numbers on a game-to-game basis, he had… I’m going to count the duds here. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. About 10 dud games where he absolutely crapped the bed, did nothing. Now, he had a bunch of boom games and that’s where his numbers boomed. Now, if you look at week four, he had 47.6 PPR fantasy points. In week 10, he had 27.5. In week 15, he had 32.8. Those three monster games, he got a couple 20 plus games in there as well. Then week one, what do you have? I think in week one, he had 37.1. He had a good week one as well. He had four to five huge games where he absolutely exploded offensively. That’s what inflated his numbers.

If you have five 40-point games, it’s going to inflate your numbers significantly. Then you have 10 dud games. The point I’m trying to say is he was very volatile. That’s with Pat Mahomes. Now, Pat Mahomes had a lot of targets. Kelsey was there, stuff like that. But now he’s on a new offense where the quarterback is completely suspect. I don’t trust Tua. Tua could be good but he’s got Waddle there who’s already got rapport built up with him. Waddle had a good year, finished 13th among wide receivers last year, racking up, what, 141 targets. That’s definitely going to go down with Tyreek Hill there. But again, you’re looking at Jaylen Waddle who peaked at 141 targets. Is Tyreek Hill going to get the volume that he had last year? Which wasn’t a lot. It was actually pretty good, 159 targets, but it wasn’t like Davante Adams type targets.

Now, he did drop in the ADP. He’s sitting ninth on the consensus rankings, understandably so, but still, on the top 10, a guy you have to invest a second-round draft pick on, a guy’s who’s going to be volatile. I’d say if I give value for Waddle later, I’d probably do that. But even Waddle’s ranked 11th amongst the consensus. Here’s what makes me sick with the consensus and these rankings, because Waddle finished 13th last year, they’re deciding like, “Okay. Well, he’s the one receiver there and he finished near the top 10. We got to have him up.” Then they put Tyreek in there because he finished on top last year. They’ve both got these guys in the top 11, top 10. That’s just simply because of last year. They’re not thinking like, “Okay. Well, one’s going to surpass the others. There’ll be volume issues. They’re both going to probably fall out of the top 10. Maybe one slides.”

They’re not thinking logically. There’s no logic besides this. I remember this going back to 2019. Remember when Godwin had that big year, Chris Godwin? What ended up happening was the year after, Evans was the one on that roster. They were like, “Okay. We got to put Evans in the top 10 but because Godwin had such a good season, we got to put Godwin in the top 10 as well because he is coming off a pinnacle year. We can’t leave Godwin out because he had such a good year.” But I was telling you guys not to draft Godwin. Godwin, in 2020 drafts, was coming off in the second round and Evans was coming off in the third round. Godwin fell out of the top 10 amongst finishers in 2020 and Evan’s finished, I think, 11th.

They both ended up finishing, as I predicted, outside the top 10. Godwin finishing less. I told you to avoid both. That would’ve been a waste of a second and a third-round pick, either or. The point I’m trying to make is there’s a lot of copying and pasting going on here. Waddle, Tyreek Hill, I’m just going to avoid this entire situation because there’s going to be a lack of volume. There’s uncertainty on who’s the wide receiver one. Waddle still could be the one based on that rapport. He could get most of all. He’s a good wide receiver, guys. He was drafted in the first round. He’s no joke. We’ve got Waddle. We’ve got Tyreek Hill. You’ve got volatility issues with Tyreek Hill, to begin with, a new offense, suspect quarterback. I’m going to go ahead and stay away and yet he’s still in the top 10 without all this consideration and thought going into it.

This is something to think about when you’re drafting. This is what I explained in 16 rounds. If this is resonating with you, just saying, “Well, Joe, this makes sense. Everyone’s just going to give me a top 10 rankings and include Tyreek Hill and put Waddle just outside the top 10.” That doesn’t make sense to me. They’re going to sell me a draft kit predicated on last year’s top finishers. That’s bs, with a couple of sleepers and they’re… They try to spice it up, with projections, and analytics. Guys, don’t overcomplicate things with fantasy football. Look at the depth trial. Look at the opportunity. Look at the talent. Look at the volume. Look what happened last year. Look what’s happening this year. Look at the quarterback. Look at the rapport. Look at the youth. Look at the talent. Look at the past injuries, predicated on that.

Then you factor in the gut feeling. All of these play a factor. That’s why I created the 16-round draft. It’s practical. It helps you win. It omits guys that I know are going to drop off. Again, I’m not going to be drafting these guys. I’ve said a couple of big names for you. I’ve got two more for you here and I’m torn on this as a bunch. I’m not drafting any wide receiver in the first round pretty much. The only one I’d consider just to be off the top is probably Ja’Marr Chase. I think there’s still a lot of stealing with him. I think he’s special. I think he only gets better barring any type of injury, hopefully, stays healthy. But two more wide receivers I’m going to dodge here. Now, I mentioned Jefferson but I’m not going to include him in this list.

I’m obviously not going to pay a high draft capital for him when I get to fill in later who was pretty much the wide receiver one early on this season last year. Jefferson, obviously, I’m going to avoid. I put him on that Instagram post I did. Let’s not talk about him. I said Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, who was my other guy? Tyreek Hill.

4. Deebo Samuel  Deebo Samuel

The next two guys I want to avoid and one of them’s got contract issues is Deebo Samuel. Now, Deebo Samuel was on my show last year. If you guys watched, he came onto my show and I believed in him. But Brandon Aiyuk has ranked ahead of him on the consensus rankings. I said, “No, Deebo is the guy.” Deebo had a great season inflated by eight rushing touchdowns on the 49ers. Now, he’s talking contract issues. He wants to get paid very high.

He might hold out from some practices as we get off here in the off-season training. Both he and the other guy I’m going to talk to are holding out in practice. This is potential because they want to get paid big contracts since a lot of the other wide receivers got big money. They want big money. They see Christian Kirk getting paid. They’re like, “I want to get paid.” You got to take a look at a guy like Davante Adams and guys like these that are getting paid. Deebo performed really well last year. He’s like, “Well, Adams is getting paid. Tyreek’s getting paid. Christian Kirk, who done nothing is getting paid, I want to get paid.” Understandably so, the guy had a great year but he had one good year. Mind you, that is better than Christian Kirk’s ever done and he got paid big.

Deebo has got a case for himself but I’m still going to avoid him for fantasy because again, I still think his numbers are inflated on eight rushing touchdowns last year. I liked him as an eighth-round pick where I was getting him last year for value, which I had him. I was telling you, I liked him ahead of Aiyuk. I liked him for his value. Just simply go into YouTube and search Deebo Samuel fantasy football, and you’ll see the interview. Joseph Robert fantasy football account, Deebo Samuel. That’ll come up on YouTube. Go check it out. Deebo Samuel, again, I liked him. I was a believer. I like him. I had him on my team last year. I’m not going to draft him this year. I’m not going to pay early draft capital for him this year. He’s sitting sixth amongst wide receivers but he was chopped liver last year. I could pull out a magazine guys.

I’ve got one of those fantasy magazines, and I could pull it out and show you the lies. I do pull it out of my Instagram. Aiyuk has ranked ahead of Deebo Samuel. Same with Robert Woods being ranked ahead of Cooper Kupp last year. It’s absolutely ludicrous. Now, these guys are top 10 guys because they’ve finished on top last year. Get the hell out of here, period.

5. AJ Brown  AJ Brown

The fifth guy here is A. J. Brown. I’m staying away. This guy finished 32nd amongst wide receivers last year. I don’t trust A. J. Brown. I don’t think the volume’s going to be there for A. J. Brown. I don’t think the guy that’s going to be possibly holding out because he wants to get paid a mega-contract as well. I don’t think he deserves it. He’s not done anything sensational. He doesn’t finish seasons. They brought in Robert Woods. It’s a run-first offense with the Titans. Ryan Tannehill does not throw a lot of volume.

There are a thousand reasons… Well, not really a thousand. There are five to 10 good reasons why A. J. Brown is not draftable. I’m going to stay away from him. He could have a breakout season but I’m not paying for him because he is a top seven wide receiver on the consensus rankings, which means when the ADP comes up, the best wide receiver is available on your board when you’re doing your draft, you’re going to see A. J. Brown’s space pops up. What are you going to do? You’re going to say, “Oh, best wide receiver.” And draft him in your second round or end of first, early second, mid-second, wherever he falls, first, second round. Either way, you should be going Robust RB. Let somebody else take him because there’s a ton of volume at wide receiver this year. That’s the main reason. Aside from going Robust RB, there is a ton of value at wide receiver this year.

I cannot emphasize that enough. I want to hammer that point home that there are a ton of wide receiver ones you can get later, guys like Michael Pittman, guys like Terry McLaurin, guys like Amari Cooper, guys like Jerry Jeudy, guys like Elijah Moore, guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown to name a few. Never mind the rookies that are coming in this year, Colan Sun. There are so many guys, DeVonta Smith, so many wide receiver ones that could emerge and become top five, top 10 guys that are going later rounds that you can get and not invest in these guys when you know that they’re going to possibly decline and you know the situation’s not optimal and you know they had good years last year and they’re being drafted early on predicated on last year’s top finishing. Guys, wake up.

Do you want to crush your league? Stop listening to the mainstream. Do not draft Cooper Kupp. Decline Cummings. Do not draft Deebo Samuel. He’s having contract issues at the time of this recording. Maybe that gets worked out. Either way, inflated by touchdowns. Elijah, Mitchell’s going to come in. A. J. Brown, run-first team. Tannehill doesn’t throw a lot. I warned you that last year. I’m getting so angry here because last year he was in the top 10, A. J. Brown. I said, “Listen, Ryan Tannehill was 17th amongst quarterbacks in passing attempts. A. J. Brown is not going to get that volume. Sorry.” Especially with Julio Jones there last year, it wasn’t going to happen. Yet the mainstream continues to put him in the top 10. Julio was just outside the top 10. Does that sound familiar this year with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Sounds familiar. How did those guys do last year? It’s about thinking outside the box, guys.

I’m not just going to tell you, copy and paste last year. I’m so pissed off that these guys make a living copying and pasting last year’s stats and they all have the same rankings. It’s total bs, guys. Wake up. All right. Subscribe, thumbs up, guys. Wide receivers I’m avoiding, there are five for you guys. Again, you should be going Robust RB early on. All right. Subscribe to this #1 Fantasy Podcast.

 

Joseph Robert
Joseph Robert
Joseph Robert's outside of the box, LION mentality has created the strongest and most loyal fan base in the fantasy football industry! @fantasyfootballcounselor
16 Rounds